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Prefer to take note of Warren Buffets quote regarding companies utilising EBITDA, he commented “When Charlie and I read reports, we have no interest in pictures of personnel, plants or products. References to EBITDA make us shudder - does management think the tooth fairy pays for capital expenditures? We're very suspicious of accounting methodology that is vague or unclear, since too often that means management wishes to hide something. And we don't want to read messages that a public relations department or consultant has
turned out. Instead, we expect a company's CEO to explain in his or her own words what's happening.
Considering the track record of the long gone but ridiculously overpaid Blue Moon who consistently took a vastly inflated salary from a company that has never ever turned a profit but based pay on performance of sales growth rather than genuine profit then it would appear that Buffet was spot on
I hear there has been a cut across-the-board in management headcount. The estimation being 30%, a £2.5m saving. Strong for the short term. Not positive in the long term health of the business. I suspect Moon is also now completely out as there was some rumblings of unscrupulous activity which was uncovered upon his exit which may suggest a contractual breach.
Could move again soon....
Looking very good.
Two good brands in SIS and PhD, though SIS is the stronger of the two. Significant sunk investment in building brand awareness. New exec Chair has a strong track record of turnaround and shareholder value creation in PE. Refocusing on trade channel and selective B2C. Should be profitable again this year and over the medium term deliver c. 20% EBITDA margin which would mean £12m EBITDA. That would be 4x EV/EBITDA if they can get to £10-12m…at the current 19p a share.
Suggest to me the share price should be 40-60p / share.
£38,000 buy. Someone has just added. A bigger trader than the usual. Looks like more and more interest in SIS. Will the boss of APPLIED NUTRICIAN been adding?
I think SIS is in play. People upping their stake. 30pence target for me.
With people building states it looks like this could gap up to 30 pence. With applied nutrition expected IPO this could jump big time. You would think that SIS would be a good company to be absorbed into Applied Nutrition. Their business over-lap and are identical in many ways. Great play here.
Richard Griffiths and Spreadex between them have taken 9 % Holding.
I wonder if Stephen Moon is now out. As I do not see these purchases coming from free float.
All positive in my opinion.
Up 58% over the year. One year high today on a holdings RNS. Follow the money. Buy buy buy.
Nice to see Richard Griffiths building a stake!
Only a few years ago they were touching near £1 think this is a more realistic valuation
Up 7.25%
Could go up further.
Offered 17.61 to sell but someone bought for 17.50?
Spreadex is doing something with equity swaps. Something could be happening here.
Confident this is going to start to fly soon.
IT IS GOING TO JUMP SOON AND JUMP BIG.
f JD Sports has a 1/3 stake in Applied Nutrition, You would think this would be also attractive to Sports Direct a director competitor to JD Sports.
Someone is going to make an offer for SIS multiple's of the share price. Just before things recover. SIS is massively under valued.
Going to jump soon.
Has a possible prospective IPO of £1 Billion. With approximately the same turnover as SIS. The thing is SIS is only valued at £30 Million. £970 Million cheaper.
If applied Nutrition are clever they could pay 35 Pence for SIS and double their turnover and be valued on the same prospective earnings for £2 Billion. haha.
Expect a bid from Applied Nutrition soon. They could pay £1.40 and still be laughing all the way to the bank. Strong buy guys. Buy now before the bid.
Company has said earning to double with flat sales as it has found cost savings and improved efficiencies. The trading itself will take the shares higher. One day a big player will come. THG my protein looks the obvious buyer. Or JD sports Applied nutrition group to expand with all the cash it has built up. Take-over this year is my guess. 35 pence at least and probably much more. Possible double or triple bag possible. STRONG BUY
The IPO is not binding as of yet but a plan. Yes they are looking for £1 Billion. Based on a prospective of 10X times earning of forecast turnover of £100,000,000. But so far Applied Nutrition has less turnover than SIS.
Something wrong with the valuations compared with SIS. Good thing is that that SIS has reported an expected doubling of EBIDA. With turnover flat. I cannot see SIS remaining as an independent for long. If someone wants it they will have to pay a lot more than what it is now.
When and if Applied Nutrition does get its IPO, some eyes have to fall on SIS. Perhaps it can get that kind of money if it lists in New York?
Anyone heard any more about timing of applied nutritions £1B float ?
A quick bump up in the SP would be great but not really realistic at this stage. For me the business is sound but needs to be taken a grip of, which I feel the new chairman has done and I hope will continue to do so. Trimming the fat out of the overheads in a controlled manner will take some time and cost some cash, but thereafter deliver a strong return on the effort and I would expect a notable growth in the bottom line. I would look for this company to build its EBIT to a double digit %., perhaps not for the 2024 FY but certainly the 2025 FY.
Further forward, it will be interesting to see how the commercial team is developed and how they expect to maintain grow momentum in relation to top line sales. Now is not the time to stagnate, but to prepare the foundation for controlled growth.
Well the trading update shows the contempt for the one trick pony 'revenue' chasing of the previous CEO and top management (actually lets be honest just the CEO) and this was an honest if somewhat mixed bag of an announcement. I like honesty ! We will have to wait while they de-leverage and rebuild and so 2024 will be flat on revenue but with improved EBITDA, reduced debt and an expectation that they can double the cash position. I saw no obvious signal for a further fund raise or dilution of investors (although cannot rule one out at some future stage). The strategy they intend to follow doesnt necessarily need a big cash injection just a bot of time. The goals are clearly stated for us to see in this trading update. Patience is needed but I sense we are in better hands and we know how we will measure success in 12 and 24 months. I read this with a sense of optimism going forwards.
Looks like the company has been turned around. Its good that the Moon guy was replaced. New management seem to know what they are doing. Expected doubling of EBITDA and reduction in debt when changes fully implemented. Pretty good considering.
Nothing too dramatic going on here .
Seems the previous management were inept and it’s going to take quite a while to sort out the mess.
A takeover is going to be the only way punters are going to make much out of this share short term imo.
Interesting to have exchange of views. I think the ex-CEO is on garden leave simply because they wanted to remove him quickly from his influence on the business. He is not the sort of guy you want wandering around the office after 'agreeing' his departure, and his contract has always had 12 months notice period. Paying him off in one go or not is a choice. One thing Mr Moon was right on (yes there were just one or two things) was that retail is not the future and I would be very surprised if they turn the ship in that direction. Your comment on not paying suppliers is powerful, if that turns out to be true, but I have serious doubts that is true. They are not that tight on cashflow and there is an underlying profitability margin that I believe can be unlocked now that he is gone. The next trading statement will be interesting and perhaps we can pick this exchange up again once we have it.
It may not be what people want to hear but it’s not based on supposition. Why need cash? They are already leveraged beyond any reasonable norm - asset financing, debt factoring and a recent cash raise. The results announced were hugely cash destructive - ships don’t turn quickly. Word around the industry is they aren’t paying their suppliers. Sacking your CIO and other members of your online team and not replacing them signals a tilt towards retail - retailers pay in 30+ days, online is immediate. Putting your ex CEO on garden leave suggests you can’t afford to pay him off in one go. I could go on but there’s the basis for my call. I guess time will tell.