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W-I-M, I sense a bit of panic. Unless you need this money in the near term, I would relax and chill. In the longer term you will be fine but you are going to have to be patient. Sentiment & uncertainty are dragging and will continue to drag on this stock for a while. But at some point this will change and there will be a realignment but it could take a while. There is also the possibility of a takeover by the likes of Pfizer but I don't see that happening in 2018. If you are stressing, stop looking at daily movements and park it for 6 -12 months and re-assess it then.
Technicals? What technicals and when?
for a pharma co like shire, this price is truly a bargain... however i will wait until technicals confirm to me that the down is well and truly over.
The only conclusion then is that everyone has been selling their holdings since the peak of 50 odd pounds. Thats gotta be a year of constant selling. The pressure for it blow up soon must be immense as all those shares in market makers possession must be itching the heck out of them.
According to Shorttracker there are no declarable shorts on this... seems strange given the persistent fall
Well done to all you shorters
Hello 20s. The SP is in freefall
Clearly rate increases in US are going to hurt the bottom line.. Will wait until rate decision before opening a juicy �15 pp long. Have opened a tiny �1 pp long for testers.
No sign of the decline slowing , at this rate 25-27 before spring .
:-)
If you were looking at the google after hours price then that SP is out of date I�m afraid. The NASDAQ after hours is actually unchanged from the US closing price at $126.67, and hence down 5.51% on the day. The $128.97 was at an earlier time (4.50PM. US time). ATB, Scfc
�30.45 after making a slight after hours recovery on the nasdaq exchange otherwise we were looking at close to the dreaded twenties
One of the most significant things in the FY results was the reduction in liabilities from $38.1Bn to $31.6Bn. Current liability is $7.8Bn Net income $4.3Bn so within 2x Admit not a fan of GAAP and non-GAAP reporting Free cash flow of $3.4Bn
Dear fellow investor (s), I expressed my views as anybody else. I was clear about it and stressed it is not an advice. As to criminality, it could be concluded only once independent inquiry is done. Just by looking at CLLN�s it is being conducted as we speak, once fat lady sang. Creative accounting is widely practiced and tolerated by big boys and their regulators mates, banking, TSCO, miners, service sect., DEB, OCDO( just managed to secure even more funds with no profit in sight).... in fact u would strangle to find co that is not practising financial - accounting engineering. SHP was encouraged to do so by same guys who are knocking it down now. Sorosi sold out of shp.Btw, I also said that mood will change again and sp will pass �38 again at some point hence I�m more long than short. Balancing trends ROE v debt $-� rate rise is a challenge, but just looking at PE might be unhealthy. I don�t mind u reporting my post but I�m a bit disheartened u took it personally. We can all read annual reports no matter how long they come , but how will those be taken by market is unknown.
If we can substitute the letter R for a T in shire then i think it sums up how we are all feeling about the share price right now!
I normally agree with you 100%, however when it comes to suggesting accounting malpractice and criminality at Shire, which is a highly respected blue chip firm, I draw the line.
You may consider his comments as 'trash' but they are not offensive. All comments on here are, to some extent, personal opinions. No one on here should be influenced by any one else's comments so I would let it go. I disagree with notgreedy and think he is talking bs, but that is his right.
I reported your comment. Absolute disgrace to write such trash with no attempt to even back up your lies.
Very interesting Tom, and thats why i invested in it. but JP morgan have done their workings valuing the sp at �36 down from 50 previously. They also went neutral from outperform. I know, we always say these ratings are not worth the paper they are written on but shire takes any downgrades very seriously and drops in price. In contrast when these ratings are upward revisions it still bl00dy drops in price... I can on only conclude that Matket is full of con artists.
How far off is Shire plc from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, I am going to take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company�s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will use the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. I�m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company�s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next five years. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate. 5-year cash flow forecast 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Levered FCF ($, Millions) $4,604.95 $5,298.83 $5,421.97 $5,836.44 $6,169.87 Source Analyst x11 Analyst x10 Analyst x5 Analyst x4 Analyst x4 Present Value Discounted @ 9.25% $4,214.93 $4,439.26 $4,157.70 $4,096.47 $3,963.73 Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $20,872 We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after the five years. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (1.5%). In the same way as with the 5-year �growth� period, we discount this to today�s value at a cost of equity of 9.3%. Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 � (1 + g) � (r � g) = $6,170 � (1 + 1.5%) � (9.3% � 1.5%) = $80,659 Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = $80,659 / ( 1 + 9.3%)5 = $51,818 The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is �72,690. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value of �58.32, which, compared to the current share price of �30.75, we find that Shire is quite good value at a 47.27% discount to what it is available for right now.
*by the end of the week...
Agreed. At this rate we could be in the twenties. Eek!
Big news reads : dollar strength weighs on stocks So shp goes down if dollar goes down and shp goes down if dollar goes up Have i got this right?
Looks like it’s gonna continue its death spiral down!
It probably will, when is another question, if you can bare more pain sit on it and hedge with daily short if necessary. That I think this is worthless co is just my opinion, there will be plenty of ups and downs here before fat lady sings, added problems for this sp is sociological �correction � trend-move of equity markets. All this just my opinion not recommendation, after all I had to sit on sort for longer than 2years to enjoy proceeds and vindicate my self, with many hedges short term longs.