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Well I did provide some numbers on the EPS in the other thread. Your articles do suggest that whilst EPS vs growth is slowing, there is still a bogus low valuation on this stock. I saw a pretty good DCF valuation the other week on this (not sure if it was this forum or advfn) which marries the PE valuation quite well so I'm not sure you can dismiss PE as irrelevant here, particularly as it is so low and we are expecting earnings growth. I'm just wondering how the numbers have led you to believe that a track to 2500 is on the cards, or is it just sentiment (which like I said can switch quickly and leave you with your knickers collecting dust).
Not to bad article Btw rhambo I remember us agreeing on most in past, yet I see no numbers from u either. The other one, it is boring being personal especially coming from AIM player. Make what u will , but PE is and has never been important or realistic here, just very negative atm. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4149715-shire-keep-holding-controversial-name?utm_source=partner_investingcom_feed https://seekingalpha.com/article/4147157-daily-pharma-scoop-shire-looks-attractive-omeros-data-axovant-restructuring?utm_source=partner_investingcom_feed https://www.investing.com/analysis/shire-shpg-q4-earnings-beat-immunology-franchise-strong-200290814
Always interested to hear opposing views notgreedy. However, you don't appear to have any numbers behind the bear position and I feel you are exposing yourself trading on short term sentiment which can switch very quickly. Ultimately, the numbers will win through. The modest pessimism on the 2018 is EPS vs growth compared to 2017, not a decline in EPS itself. In fact EPS is scheduled to increase which means the valuation looks even more unrealistic. This is reflective of the investment SHP has decided to make which will slow down the rate of EPS growth. Long term this could pay off handsomely.
notgreedy Couldn't agree less, your opinion on Shire is pure drivel.
Slightly worrying, adr doesn�t accept shorts atm.
notgreedy, thanks. I don't think we are a million miles apart.
Shp has been pumped up for 10 or so years. Greedy and self-centred bod has bin milking it, city so it as one way bet, till last year when 00�s millions new shares started coming to market to pay for megalomaniac ambitions of bod. Donald J. (Rightfully) pointed over medication of nation (s), extremely irritating non gaap reporting, hardly any bods shareholding ( other than 1/4 priced options), generics., hot and cold -pump and dump brokers - big investors sentiment... on the bright side they realised genetic engineering trf of cems delivery to cells. If bod master this, and imo they will give it a good go recognising commercials, we could be looking at mcap of �40bln + again ( divide by no of share att). Pe is irrelevant here, imo, sentiment and length of grinding is. Now that I�m short very thin ( from �32 to present) I would like to see upwards move, reduce long and top up short. As to sp if �28 fols then �25 again subject to no of shares, Donald J., perceptions- sentiment....mind all bod over 50 some 60 years old, like clln � s bod they cannot be negatively financially affected. How much room is left in their overloaded pockets is unknown, Fred d shred comes to mind and there are so many of his twins on bods. In short no way telling, I take longer term view and hedge it with daily - weekly trades. I�ve found that proportioning works better for me than timing.
Hi Notgreedy, I realise that you are and have been very bearish on Shire but i would be intrigued to know where you think the share price should be. I accept it is no longer a high growth stock (its growth will be very modest going forward) but it still generates significant profits, has significant free cash flow (I think 5-6 years to pay off debt is more realistic) but pay a paltry dividend. Assuming that it continues on a steady path (ie modest growth, stable profits, debt reduction) and does not make any more acquisitions, where is a fair price? Please assume no bid premium as this may never happen. My calcs certainly come to more that �30 and probably around �40. Yours? So what about a bid premium? If the company continues on same financial path for a couple more years (ie steady profits, debt reducing), it will be on a PE of a lot less than 10 at current price. With other bigger companies trading on 15 -20 times, wouldn't Shire start to look attractive and earnings accreditive? Your thoughts would be most welcome. Tom
If u can look pass divi, declining income, political uncertainty re sector-shp rotational favourites swings, not rapidly enough debt decreasing( about 7 years to pay it all being equal, but it never is), u right. Just that markets don�t see shp as growth stock any more hence sharp rerating. I even stumbled across (obscure) article somewhere ,last summer, which pointed out this new realitys. I�m sure I wasn�t the only one to stumble across it, but on a balance of probabilities someone will appear, again, glorifying shp, r&d, potentials, valuation arguments, calls for rerating up this time, return to growth stock and sp will recover.timing ,though, is unknown, I�ll watch Soros, he didn�t get it last time but he gets this things right more often than not.
Thanks. Note that a. This market cares nothing for valuation - yet, so we might need a lot more patience to tough this out but we will be handsomely rewarded; b. Pharma eps are a moveable feast, particularly after a large acquisition. The non-GAAP eps are likely overstated across the sector ( see Terry Smiths argument from 2015). Your relative valuation argument is still relevant within the sector but it�s probably safer to think of this stock in the low to mid teens on multiples when thinking about it across a portfolio...if you look at Shires q1 results you can see that GAAP earnings are actually half that of the company�s preferred Non-GAAP measure, implying the p/e multiple is a lot higher....
By my calcs at the current fx (1.40usd = 1gbp) PE on a diluted basis is just under 9 (3000 / (468 / 1.4)). This looks cheap if you can look past the dividend. Given most of its peers are around x20+, that extrapolates to around 6600 sp. OK so to calm that down a bit, there's no real reason that as a growth stock this should be below 5000, imo.
So, the dow jones is up, most of the pharma stocks are up, that can only mean one thing. The 40% undervalued shire shares are on the way down yet again! Typical!
chill out. I don't know how heavily invested you are but there is little point in panicking now. in this situation, a person could hold and risk further temporary erosion or sell, use my capital elsewhere on a short term basis and consider re-entry once this share firmly turns a corner! There are always options in any situation you find yourself - it's all about reassessing and making independent informed discussions. Good Luck.
I said, this dog goes up a touch, fools us all and then crashes down to lows. Here we are at low 30 - almost back in 20s. :-(((. Dam u shire!!!
Some huge volume on the after hours trades.
That was due to fda approval etc
Summary Shire reported better-than-expected Q4 2017 results, but also a disappointing guidance for 2018. DCF analysis shows that Shire is undervalued by around 38% (Perpetuity Growth Method) and 40% (EBITDA Multiple Method). Thus, with the stock trading at 8x on NTM P/E and offering an underappreciated pipeline on rebased earnings expectations, the current valuation of Shire offers a compelling entry point. On February 14, 2018, Shire (SHPG) reported strong Q4 2017 results, thanks to a solid performance of the key growth drivers, but also a disappointing guidance for 2018. With the stock trading at 8x on NTM P/E, I think that the current valuation of Shire is extremely attractive.
For a quiet Friday that was odd. Was very volatile and jumped to 3120 and then a yoyo for 5 minutes. Something strange going on.
What's going on today? Shot up in first minute?
Yes of course the market is all a con. Highly illogical and irrational but how many of you bother to email or call the FCA market abuse and intelligence teams? They are useless but no harm in filing a report. One of these days they may earn their salary. How many have bothered to look at the figures for the current stock market darlings that have doubled or tripled in the past few years and the stupid multiples they are trading on? ASOS, Boohoo, Just Eat, Fevertree, Hutchison, Abcam and co. all trading on P/E's of 80+ even up to 100 !!
BOD buy, at these levels, following results?
Who r they kidding by throwing a bone of up 1% and then next day hit sp with a sledgehammer of minus 5%...
The pure genius of how market makers drive prices up or down is mesmerizing. They make PIs think that a price has peaked and then they take it up even more and on the down they make PIs think it has reached rock bottom and they drive it down even more. Amazing Jedi like skills!!!
A year ago today the SP closed at �48.10. What a difference a year can make! Would it be nice in 12 months' time if we could say, 'wow the SP was �29.60 this time last year and it is now �45.00. What a difference a year can make'. Irony huh?
Funny how the "winners and losers" summary talks about a stock that fell by 1% and fails to mention the biggest loser on ftse 100 that dropped by more than 4%. FCA may have a hand in this so its all above board O_o