London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I remember hearing/reading that they would be updating/confirming production at Sangida after gold pour, am i correct with my understanding? potentially could be why the news id being held while they forecast production rates on current operations?
This is a great share, but they never released an RNS that’s on time, hence the drop as The market is not expecting it in March although the latest RNS suggested that it will be delivered… when will Eric realize that communication on time = trust I don’t know… either way as some suggest here this should re rate this year, esp once the $ in the bank increase.
When we saw pictures of Singida it revealed lots of rain had fallen. It may have delayed tailings relining completion and they want to confirm that it was all complete with gold pour announcements. It was always going to be a close call to hit 31 March and any delay is probably very short. They may also want to line up staff near the said poured gold for photo shoots and the rest. If a Mining Minister wanted to be present it could result in a minor delay as well.
Gold looking like it could attack $2000 again.
Wish I had spare cash to buy the dip today, an absolute steal
Well Shanta have delivered on time and on budget so well done to those who didn’t let their doubts cloud their mind. A couple of posters on here yet to admit that.
“Importantly, the project was delivered on time and on budget, a testament to our dedicated project management team. Despite global inflationary cost pressures, no material capital cost inflation was incurred in the construction costs. This was a direct result of the excellent supervision, advanced planning, and overall flexibility from the Singida team in Tanzania.”
Shanta are ramping up from 35 ounces on day 1 (approx 1,000 pcm) to around 130 ounces per day by September I believe, these are my estimates based on previous Singida expectations and will no doubt differ from company guidance due next quarter.
Singida (est 21,000 ounces in 2023)
Q1: -
Q2: 5,000
Q3: 7,000
Q4: 9,000
good news on the gold pour, looks like market priced this in what would be key now is FCF and overall margins predictions i hope we may get scope of next quarter. If the company has a healthy funding stream for west kenya development this could be put into a development timeline after consultation, thats the value unlock for me here.
Thank you for sharing your estimation. it looks fairly conservative and I wouldn't be surprised if Singida guidance is higher given the details released recently;
From the 13th February update the Run of Mine stockpile at Singida was 13,581 oz and "equal to approximately 4 months of processing". Now we are six weeks on the RoM must be in the region of 5-6 months equivalent. This would also suggest Singida can now process 10,000 ounces each quarter assuming consistent grades, which is more than "previous LoM plan guided for approximately 32,000 oz pa".
The tricky part is calculating how quickly operations will ramp up as this will affect 2023 Singida guidance. The first full year of Singida production in 2024 will likely be higher than the 32koz mentioned in the annual results.
They need to be producing at 85 Oz per day to get to 32K Oz per year. They are off to a flyer at 35 Oz per day as of yesterday.
AU isn't a complicated element / process to leach up to full strength (Nickle for example is and can take up to 2 years to leach), gold typically takes 2 months to reach full concentration in the heaps.
My baseline is they'll be at full strength / 32K Oz per year / 85 Oz per day by the end of May.
Re: processing capacity, I believe they said the plant has been over-spec'd to allow future increases in production above the 30-35koz range, given there is a large amount of unexplored ground at Singida.
Yes, he said that on a proactive investor interview I'm sure, they have sized the leach heaps way in advance of the 30/35k Oz the mine plan specifies for future expansion.
As I thought, the share price has not given Shanta Gold credit today on the pour which was welcomed this morning. A lot of miners not getting an expected pick up in price. Shanta has significantly de-risked on production and not all miners are in that position.
There is likely to be a leg up on Q1 results next month which should be good. I think the excitement of a new operational mine and the prospect of significant cash flow is being tempered by the fact that we do not yet know about WK which will soak up a great deal of cash.
Notably Eric did not raise the dividend (I thought he would) and they doubled the Stanbic overdraft facility in January from $5m to $10m which perhaps is indicative that they are trying to free up as much future cash for WK as possible. Contra wise they did not fully draw down on the Stanbic $20m term loan facility seemingly taking only $17m of it.
Saving alot of capex on Singida ! News will sink in soon enough
Rerate ahead
"Saving a lot of capex on Singida"
Correct all that cost will now disappear and instead Singida (once at full rate in a month or two) will be producing a tonne of positive cashflow - a double whammy.
Exactly ! Capex falling and gold price rising !!! And producing more - perfect storm