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What % of their market do Mobileye/Intel control & assuming it is dominant why should we not dominate our market if we have the best product at the best price .Why would they buy an inferior product for the same price ?
It's more the timing. A few years back on a system like supercruise the scope of the design no doubt was a lot simpler than what is going on right now. All these patents and articles are clearly showing DMS is now part of a far larger and complex platform which the T1s have to get absolutely right. Considering the industry relied so heavily on the canbus for the last 25 odd years no doubt they are probably finding the speed of change in this area (now backed by regulation) quite a challenge right now as the clock ticks. A whole industry is now having to play catch up in the smallest window its probably ever known. I think that's why things are so quiet and will continue to be for the next few months imo.
This aviation deal couldn't come soon enough and thank **** ken pursued the opportunity all those years ago! I still haven't forgiven him for 'that' raise or the countless poorly worded rds' but he sure got some things right.
Fonzoo, the design wins will be announced when / if we win them.
It's one of the key metrics Paul always states, 9 design wins, 6 OEMs. They probably won't name the OEM or the Tier One but that's fine, it will be pretty obvious who if is.
- large German OEM
- large Japanese OEM
- large Korean OEM
- European OEM with a safety reputation
Etc
We have always had the Tier Ones , so nothing new.
#Team300
I'm getting the impression we will no longer see any new OEM wins and the last 6-7 months has been an eye opener. The heavy shift to integrate DMS into the next gen infotainment/advanced assistance platforms from the T1s seems to be dominating and suddenly it seems we are completely reliant on an additional layer of NDAs. I guess this was always in the pipeline but what a frustrating few months. Surprisingly BMW seem to be the odd ones out following the SEYE announcements last year which surprised us all no doubt, and then us at CES, it's a shame the others aren't of the same mindset! Even veoneer whos results last year were very transparent seem to have taken a step back in disclosures. Such potential yet so heavily bound to others, it was never going to be easy eh! I now appreciate just how early to the game mobileye were before the next gen game truely kicked off, genius timing on their part.
.....I'm not good at being patient but we all need to be!!!!
I'll take you back to the proactive investors interview with Ken only a few years back and at that point See had no competition looking inwards (DMS) so there is no way that serious competition has emerged overnight. Let's think for a minute how long See have taken to perfect the product and this has been through nearly 20 years of R&D and to overlay on top of that with actual systems deployed in the 'real world'. There is no real competition and soon the world will wake up to this and then watch the sp rise.
Shares
I think what SEE says for public consumption is just that, for public consumption. What SEE thinks /says in private might vary significantly to the public utterings.
As it will be in 2022, I think a market analyst is better to analyse the market share. Colin Barnden at the CMD who stated 40/45% market share for SEE and the rest split between the rest. Those market shares don't tell the whole story though as the split is safety/convenience (and what has Semicast reiterated recently?) and come 2024 onwards and increasing legislation elsewhere that 40/45% is likely to increase and probably exceed private projections.
The simple truth of the matter is only SEE does what SEE does and as S2020 intimated OEMs, despite some unwritten code, will be drawn to SEE.
SEYE is best of the rest at the moment but even it knows it will struggle with basic NCAP, there is that chasm between SEE and the rest. SEYE is a good example of what happens when OEMs choose a Tier 2 (under different circumstances) and believe if it puts some engineering resources into something, it can round a square peg. The result? A number, up to 20, of missing (SEYE says delayed) models. Some of these delays have been so long some may wonder whether they have been cancelled.
As for Eyesight, the contract was not for one of the Big 3, read the wording, think new.
Shares, I understand why Nick and Paul talk down expectations but I dont agree that's what will happen
6th Jan RNS
"The newest variant of the FOVIO Chip solution, optimized for basic Euro NCAP systems with the flexibility to support the most advanced DMS requirements, now represents the highest performing, smallest and lowest cost, driver monitoring solution on the market."
This idea of OEM's not allowing a monopoly, so BMW and Merc have chosen SM, that means VAG will chose someone else, imagine the procurement team presenting to the board.
Board - Can you explain the rationale for using x supplier?
Procurement- it was a larger so we thought we would use up more cabin space
Board- puzzled looks
Procurement: - no sorry, we mean it was lower performing
Board : - lower performing?
Procurement (sweating and dizzy) - sorry Mr Chairman, we choose as it was more expensive.
Board : Turns to HR Director, please headhunt the BMW procurement team
#Team300
I still find it hard to agree with the bodies wont let on company have a monopoly but yet if vehicles are to meet the required standard they wont be able to achieve this without the right tech and this is only through See?!
If See where to win VW and Toyota, along with the contracts we already have, we would be the dominant force in DMS, but according to Paul the OEMs won’t let that happen, therefore the only way to prevent it, is if the major OEMs use more than one supplier, for instance, Eyesights, USA contract ( I think )has to be with one of the big three, since all we got from FCA was a A$6m contract, well you can guess the rest, there is also talk of See doing something in South Korea, since SEYE have already announced a deal with Hyundai/Ka, that could be another shared contract, let’s not forget BMW, is it possible they will continue using both us and SEYE, smaller OEMs like Volvo would only have one supplier, I still think that when you add on Vans, Trucks and coaches, if we can get close to 40% market share See will be a great investment and with an SP of 3.70, if you can’t triple or quadruple your money by late 2022 I’ll be very surprised..........just my opinion.
Imo this is the only OEM that matters in Europe, whoever wins VAG wins Europe
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-results-2019/vw-proposes-35-dividend-increase-as-2019-profit-surges-22-idUKKCN20M2BE
"Group vehicle deliveries rose 1.3% to 10.97 million last year, thanks to gains in Europe and south America as sales in Asia and the United States fell amid trade tensions."
#Team300