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National oil firm under pressure to raise funds for Carlyle assets
The next few weeks will be decisive in determining whether Gabon's junta is able to raise the necessary $1.3bn to clinch the transaction with the American company.
An agreement under which the Gabon Oil Co (GOC) buys Carlyle's oil assets in the country was struck under the gaze of television cameras and in the presence of junta leader Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema on 15 February. Ever since, Libreville has been frantically trying to raise the required $1.3bn by the deal's May deadline. The GOC has undertaken to pay a substantial deposit of several tens of millions of dollars, and must now set about finding the rest. If it fails, Carlyle could grant GOC an extension or decide to prolong its oil activities in the country. Production is currently estimated at 45,000b/d.
Geneva-based oil trader Vitol is in exclusive discussions with the GOC to contribute a significant chunk of the purchase price. In exchange, Vitol hopes to obtain the right to market the assets' output. Its optimism is all the greater now that the Société Gabonaise de Raffinage has settled its debts to the trader (AI, 12/02/24). Until the end of the exclusivity period, GOC cannot enter into talks with new potential partners.
Under special adviser's gun
For Carlyle, the February deal was signed by Bob Maguire, head of the Carlyle International Energy Partners fund, which directly owns the assets acquired from Shell in 2017. The Gamba oil fields and terminal are operated by Assala Energy, which is run by Tullow Oil veteran David Roux.
The buyer was represented by GOC CEO Marcellin Simba Ngabi, who used to work for TotalEnergies. The pressure on Simba Ngabi is so great that the matter is being closely monitored by Gabon's transitional head of state via his special adviser on mining, hydrocarbons and energy, Arnauld Calixte Engandji-Alandji, a former director of GOC.
‘Gabon-ising' the economy
Meanwhile, Savannah Energy - backed by certain executives in the oil ministry's hydrocarbons department -, the Turkish trader BGN and Indian groups have also been mentioned as potential partners. However, none has made a strong enough commitment for exclusive discussions to be concluded.
The only certainty is that Maurel & Prom (Pertamina) is definitely out of the running. The group, already heavily involved in the country, signed a sale and purchase agreement with Carlyle last August, just before president Ali Bongo was toppled. However, when Nguema came to power, the new administration quickly decided to pre-empt the deal, making it a symbol of the "Gabon-isation" of the economy championed by the junta leader, who officially announced this decision in November, and reaffirmed it during his 31 December address to the country.
Vitol in exclusives discussion, surely they would want a credible operator to run the fields for their loan.
I like this bit “ Meanwhile, Savannah Energy - backed by certain executives in the oil ministry's hydrocarbons department.”
Could Vitol provide a loan and savannah be the operator with the government having a greater profit share.
TIL, Been thinking more about this and just maybe in this weeeks update not only will we get more detail on what i going on in Sudan but hopefully we will be updated on Nigeria and Niger comprehensively , possible insight into Chad (though i imagine the company line is still say nothing ).
Then for the icing on the cake is the Gabon deal where Vitol have been pressuring Gabon that they will lend them the money on the condition that Savannah partner 50/50 split on both borrowing and ownership with Vitol receiving the offtake. (Hopefully also get some discount from Carlyle if Vitol providing finance and not them having to do it themselves).
Who knows it may well just happen.
Would a Gabon deal be classed as an RTO (striaght into another back to back suspension) with SS success? And what is the definitive point of SS being classed by the stock market as done in order to have a far bigger market cap. Would it be at the point of AD being issued or on final Gov sign off post AD and shareholder vote, should that be the timeline?
W/O SS success I assume we would go back to back into another suspension if we were to take on the Gabon deal and who knows when trading would resume. I hope the NOMAD and stockmarket will call time on this roundabout at some point in the near future and enforce us to list again. I hope to see some context around this tomorrow, if SAVE keep their promise to update us during the course of the next week - which is by 7.00am in the morning!
RR if SS crosses the line and if and its a big if Gabon is the next deal i believe we would come back trading and AK will have sounded out the market to whether this would constitute another RTO or not as i am sure he would also want it back trading.
I expect another after hours RNS as opposed to 7.00am as he doesn't no need to provide to market pre open.