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He sure does sound like a pragmatic man the bit where he says that we are not opposed to transition, but should be "Just, equitable and inclusive". Also they are not opposed to renewable but need to increase revenue from oil, to transition into other sectors like agriculture and renewable.
I am sure we will also announce a few renewable deals in South Sudan as well like we have done in NIger, Chad, and Cameroon.
Thanks' for the post, the minister appears to be a very pragmatic politician.
One would assume that a joint comms plan is probably in place and finalised last week which will be worked through in the next few days and weeks. South Sudan clearly marketing its self for investment they have oil 14 blocks on offer and what Better way to attract other investors than to approve our deal to say South Sudan is officially open to business
Approval of our deal is a wider plan by the South Sudan government to attract many other partners.
Surely all of this is not a coincidence comms starting to step up over the weekend with the sky news interview talking about the South Sudan need for investment in the oil and gas sector, receiving an award this week in London for foreign direct investment.
https://youtu.be/QnB7fB9uTbc
Pout Kang Chol tweets 30 mins ago - https://twitter.com/puot_kang/status/1682776697500758016?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
Are the ducks starting to line up for a big week next week surely has to be it now…………………..
South Sudan Embassy in London tweet - “completion of their missions in London” - sounds very cryptic let’s hope the mission include us………………….. …
Happy to host Hon Minister Puot Chol @mop_ssd; Hon Minister Awut Acuil MP @MinistrySsd & Hon Eng Awow Chuang, Technical Advisor @mop_ssd for courtesy visits upon completion of their missions.
The Hon Ministers applauded the Embassy for work conducted & professionalism displays
https://twitter.com/southsudan_uk/status/1682505779172065281?s=46&t=bdVeLrGB139mDog1SFRNlw
I was just looking at the annual report this afternoon in detail. I couldn’t help but notice and didn’t know that they stated that they considering hydrocarbon acquisitions in Cameroon alongside further renewables so could that be a follow on deal which we could wrap up quickly
Page 68 annual report
Quote from Antonine Richard Chief Operating Officer Savannah
“We are actively working on further hydrocarbon and renewable energy asset opportunities in country”.
It was a sneaky way to put it in not many people ready the admission document word for word but I thought I would find time to see if something interesting popped up.
Suggest we could see a hydrocarbon deal in Cameroon quite quickly if they felt comfortable to quote as such also could come part of the admission document or quite quickly following.
Zengas - I couldn’t agree more, I believe Kosmos valuation is higher due to the fact that they are listed in the US too which probably gives it a premium……………… but saying that our organic growth capacity from accugas, Niger, and South Sudan hopefully post closing could give us the potential to close that gap between us and kosmos. Even without another acquisition after this and renewables aside.
On the renewables front I would prefer to keep it under one umbrella for now as is one of the many reasons that we are able to access capital for oil and gas acquisitions for now as finders look at the companies ESG profile. I would also like to get to first power on some renewable projects first or at least begin commissioning the development before a spin out is considered as they say stronger together for now……….
For the money man and deal maker that AK is, surely at some point he would seriously consider a dual listing on the NYSE -not just a move to the main market off AIM.
Oil Company valuations are much better compared to those in the UK. Even Shell is half that of its comparative US cousins.
This would give us even closer to parity on reserves, production, revenue and possible cash flow to Kosmos that has that dual listing.
Given that SAVE is already moving to become one of the biggest renewables investor in Africa and a target of 2.4 GW in motion in the next 17 months alone, surely the appeal for greater investor interest to lift the value must be significant.
AK himself is a very significant holder so i would be surprised if this will not be considered once the next few acquisitions are completed as i'm sure he'd rather have as much as possible for his shares from all possible value creation and recognition angles rather than less in the UK alone.
I think we will be undervalued in the UK alone and we will on all intents be both a very large oil & gas company and a major emerging renewables company.
Two things -
The SAVE oil/gas business should more reflect the growth to match that of Kosmos which itself is solely oil/gas - and by the way has no renewables arm.
KOS currently has a £2.46b m/cap and $2.1b/£1.64b net debt with 580 mmboe 2P & 61K boepd production.
The SAVE renewables arm could be floated off separately - but if not it should attract a significant valuation in its own right but i fear being part of a traditional oil/gas Co might be undervalued/misunderstood by being solely listed in the UK.
There must be valuations attributed to both in time.
Lekela Power with 1GW of operational African wind and a further 225 MW in development was sold for an enterprise value of $1.5b. I would hope to see our renewables division grow to a much greater level given the 240 GW African target by 2030.
https://news.cision.com/aker-horizons/r/mainstream-renewable-power-and-actis-complete-sale-of-lekela-power,c3736799
I suppose probably one of the many reasons why AK wants to stay on Aim, there is a lot more freedom to do this sort of things........
Morning TiL, I've looked through the FCA handbook and the Aim rules and I can't find anything that restricts the number of RTO's or any time limits . In the FCA handbook, where it talks about analysing balance sheets for previous years it refers to companies which have gone through an 'RTO or a series of RTOs', so I suspect there aren't and we can go from one RTO straight into another. Hopefully it isn't the case though!
I am going to be a devils advocate and say we will get an update next week to say they have extended by another month to 31st August 2023
Morning All,
For the more knowledgeable posters on here, can you answer a question I have, if we were to be re-admitted is there a set amount of time that we have to be trading for before we can or are allowed to grant another suspension.
I know silly question but i would have thought there must be some rules around back to back suspensions ?
Can't think further than this acquisition for now to be fair even though we know the company is on the hunt for lots more but they truly need to get this one over the line first
Rockyride - It would be nice to have 24 hours to actually study the document.......... personally not a huge fan of releasing the admission document and re-listing on the same day.....
On a separate I am guessing you haven't spoken to anyone from IR this week have you to assess the state of play.......... I was expecting at least a Q2 update similar to how they released a Q1 2023 update but i am guessing they probably holding of as it might tie in with admission document..................................... also if they released it they would be bound to give an status update on south sudan acquistion where they are not yet ready to provide on
Who thinks 4.30pm admission document and then trading resumes Monday 8.00am?
28/7/23 and 31/7/23 that is. And then a new SPA signed for >10kboepd on Tuesday 1st August LOL
Right now my wish is to see S. Sudan completed on non recourse debt terms and not so much COTCo given where our size will hopefully soon be.
If as i hope S.Sudan circa 300 mmbls reserves and 50-55k bopd = possible $1.3-$1.5b revenue + i believe Accugas should be circa $300m revenue after that last gas contract = $1.6-$1.8b.
There's a 2nd Hydrocarbon asset top come by year end - but if it's 5-10-15k or more bopd region its possibly another $135m - $400m+ revenue range to think about, it all depends on how small or big the next deal is (and more than 1 possible).
Right now the S.Sudan deal is reducing in cost until completed.
As for Exxon Chad - let'stake it in our stride and context of overall lost immediate revenue - it's with the ICC as the proper course. End of the day we win the case or don't and Chads oil has to load at Kribi and leave the Cameroon coast by ship for international markets if we win.
We lost out on the 22.5K bopd revenue from Chad Exxon/Petronas - about $600m + a combined revenue for TOTCo + COCTCo of $152m - so in all the 2 deals were worth an expected revenue region of $750m.
Overall that would have meant we would have been on a revenue guide of about $2.35b - $2.55b by now ahead of the intended acquistion beyond S.Sudan -so thats how close we were and maybe still are depending on the next deals by this year end and '24.
Our remaining 41% COTCo revenue share should still account for $75-$80m as the pipeline element was about 90% COTCo to 10% TOTCo.
Nigeria/Accugas $300m, S.Sudan estimate $1.3-$1.5b and on deal completion see us on $1.7b - $1.9b revenue ahead of the next follow on hydrocarbon deals.
As for S.Sudan i think they will derisk it further by building on a few more geographically spread hydrocarbon deals ('at least 1' by this year end) and to me its the unfortunate order they come to market in as on how risk is percieved now - versus a few more deals under our belt when non recourse to the company.
Zengas - do you know what the cashflow for the Cotco 41% stake is
Rockyride - Yh looks like it's probably that entity..............................
TiL - didn’t SAVE set up a business called Savannah Energy SC a while ago? If so South Cameroon maybe? And hydrocarbon to boot and no link to renewable in the name.
There is an excellent lengthy article this morning re Cameroon in todays AI. They’ve just recently been put on the GAFI and EITI grey list for countries since June 23. Also SNH which is part of COTCo wants an investigation authorised by Biya to look into the payment of money to executives at the company of which Glencore had admitted to. Too long to post but shows there is support for SAVE from some inside SNH and with Save being a member of EITI - adds further support
Komakino - Agreed I also think if we had lost control of the bank accounts that would have deemed an rns worthy news for Savannah to put out and they haven't so I believe as far as Cotco is concerned it remains secure for the time being which I believe is positive and we continue to benefit from it's revenues ;).
I have found africa energy as more credible source of news as there articles always provide the full story, whereas I find africa intelligence is used to drive agendas and feed stories to peddle a narrative and there stories tend to be only few lines which I find frustrating.
I found this comment interesting - "Cameroon remains central to Savannah’s thinking, even more so since its assets were seized in Chad (AE 483/28). Chief executive Andrew Knott told shareholders in July that Cotco was a potential catalyst for further growth in Cameroon"
I wonder if we could be lining up some oil or gas acquisitions in cameroon............................................... aside from the renewable project
Yes, I'd agree with you on that one TiL. I thought there was a good chance that we had lost control of the bank accounts, but if the article is correct then we should have been receiving revenues since the deal, and continue to do so. It's always difficult to read these things without knowing what is going on behind the scenes. If you read the Africa press it's clear that Chad and Cameroon appear to be brokering some sort of compromise between themselves. It's natural that they would put relations between the countries before agreements with a oil and gas company, but the article does suggest we have kept control of the cotco monies due to us which is a big positive. As we know things can change but I certainly don't take this article as particularly pessimistic.
Olderwiser - Nobody is joining forces everyone is basically got their own agenda. I personally feel as it stands as of today the Cotco holding is safe as the article suggests. This could change further down the line but we can only go by today's news.
I believe the Cotco situation has reached a stage where each of the 3 parties feel their shareholding is now equitable, and as the article seems to allude the chad government threat on freezing bank accounts is more to do with the chad doba oil field dispute and they thought they would use is a threat to Savannah so they fold in the icc dispute but Chad doesn't have the legal right or jurisdiction to freeze Cotco accounts.
"However, analysts have told African Energy it would be difficult to force the ambitious indie out of Cotco."
"Cameroon remains central to Savannah’s thinking, even more so since its assets were seized in Chad (AE 483/28). Chief executive Andrew Knott told shareholders in July that Cotco was a potential catalyst for further growth in Cameroon."
"African Energy understands that Savannah remains in operational control of the pipeline, which it sees as giving it the right to appoint Cotco’s general manager, who retains signing capacity over bank accounts. (This is a significant element, given past threats by Chad to seize control of bank accounts.)"
"However, African Energy understands that Cotco’s general manager has pointed out that it would be difficult to operate the pipeline safely were Chad to freeze the company’s bank accounts, as it would be unable to pay vendors or suppliers."
You're joking, of course.
Seems like even Cameroon, once thought to be a staunch ally of SAVE in this spat, is joining forces with the enemy.
SAVE will be the loser, whatever happens.
Nice one, AK.
Seems like Cotco shareholding is safe and we have access to bank accounts and revenues from Cotco.
Such a relief I must say.................................