Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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TIL – “returning with approval or approval pending will still be positive for sp” – I hope you are right but if IR are correct that “AK will def not want to comeback without ALL approvals inc. Gov consent” the recent challenge to deemed approval in Chad and the approximately 50% gradual SP reduction( and subsequent reversal) while we waited for the approval of the Accugas deal suggests it is by no means certain.
On a more positive note Zengas recently highlighted how the half year figures due at the end of this month should show the full benefit of the recent new gas contracts. Hopefully the results will be sufficient to at least underwrite the current share price regardless of the timing of the completion of the SS deal.
Returning to the market with admission document and South Sudan deal still proceeding will have a premium to sp regardless of formal approval still waiting. Obviously if formal approval comes at the same time then return price will be a significant premium but returning with approval or approval pending will still be positive for sp
Personally I am glad that half year report is round the corner, I wasn’t please with them not dealing a q2 report. I believe going forward the company needs a consistent approach to releasing news. Regardless of whether we have transformational stuff working in the background. So let’s hope going forward they realease quarterly updates alongside the half year and fully year obligatory updates
Recalling RockyRides post of 6th September following his conversation with I.R.
“AK still in SS and been thee most of the summer
Working flat out to complete by end Sept and company still hopeful it will be done by then
I don't know if have Gov approval but could not be told anyway
NOMAD will decide on further extn if not completed by end Sept but AK will def not want to comeback without ALL approvals inc. Gov consent
I think if not fully completed we will see further extn until everything completed apart from shareholder approval”
If all workstreams are complete and deal completion is dependant only on SS and shareholder sign off I think the uncertainty of the timing of the SS sign off would make it too difficult for the NOMAD to give a further extension.
AK is on record in the 8th June RNS that “at least one further hydrocarbon asset deal” is a key project before the year end. The wording does not say completion of one further project, but the announcement of another signed conditional SPA would fulfil that objective.
In my opinion the timing of the flurry of activity and RNS announcements between 8th December and 13th December resulting in the planned commencement of trading on 13th December and subsequent Petronas RTO announcement suspension cannot have been a coincidence. AK knew that Chad questioning the legitimacy of the Doba fields and TOTCO pipeline deal would damage the share price.
If the “one further hydrocarbon deal” is signed by both parties but is being held by lawyers awaiting the two parties’ instructions, the next deal could be announced at the same time as a default return to market to avoid share price weakness from the uncertainty of SS approval.
Getting the SS deal over the line ASAP and a prompt return to the market not only keeps the NOMAD happy but also helps to bolster the numbers on the 2023 P&L account to avoid potentially failing the Turnover and Profit Class Tests on any 2024 acquisitions. A SS deal completion by the end of this month and the announcement of another signed conditional SPA at the end of the year could fulfil both the RTO Class Tests and one of the Key Project objectives.
I personally think the shares need to be relisted even if the deal still hasn't been approved. I personally think it’s wrong that a company can suspend their shares for 9 months and think it shouldn't be allowed. I personally think the longest any share should be suspended should be 6 months which is more than enough time to finalise a deal and publish a admission document. After this trading should resumes even if it take another 6-12months for government approval.
So now that we are 2 weeks out what do folks think…….. all views welcome
Personally going for 2 months further extension till the end of November to be on the temper my own expectations.
Thanks for sharing Komakino, certainly makes me feel more comfortable
Yes, that's pretty much the gist PSB123
Am I right in thinking this stops the Chad government from taking money out of the pipeline and whilst not directly linked to our main case means it will be easier to get our cash assuming we win?
Thanks for any clarification from anyone, I’m finding some of the various legal procedures a little difficult to follow precisely
Thanks, komakino: that is good news!
I am still of the view that Savannah will resort to Mareva injunctions to seize vessels and thus secure funds in the event that the ICC rules in its favour.
Good morning!
Judge's Order: 'Accordingly, the responsible managers of Respondents Citibank, N.A. and Citigroup, Inc. shall forthwith unequivocally instruct the managers of Citibank Gabon, S.A. to comply with the present order of the Libreville Commercial Court in Gabon, and to preserve the status quo by maintaining the present freeze of the COTCO funds until resolution of the COTCO shareholders' disputes, except for amounts necessary for the ordinary course of payment of COTCO's employees, taxes, and its existing subcontractors and suppliers essential to COTCO's operation of the pipeline. (Signed by Judge Louis L. Stanton on 9/15/2023)'
https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/50259183/Savannah_Midstream_Investment_Limited_v_Citibank_NA_New_York_et_al
Tier, both links work for me but I don't understand the reference to refreshing the page.
If anyone cannot open them, then I suggest altering the H in Https to a small h - https.
Shouldn't be a bad time to come back with oil at $93+ a barrel, fingers crossed its just the i's and t's etc to do now
Didn’t work. Don’t know why? Never mind. I’m sure we all see AK’s face and click on that :) not bad news for a Friday.
Https://www.southsudanminingjournal.co/en/post/s-sudan-inches-toward-joining-african-mineral-geoscience-center/342
Easier reference :) you need to refresh the page otherwise it’ll link the original page you’re reading. Let’s hope the source is credible.
Https://www.southsudanminingjournal.co/en/post/joint-operating-companies-to-maintain-ownership-of-oil-industry/348
I suspect the release of this Savannah nugget may deliberately coincide with the headline article above (which appears to be similar to the Bloomberg story that affc kindly forwarded yesterday).
Close to the edge? Well, we get interims in two weeks if nothing else.
South Sudan mining journal reporting that we are close to completing. They don’t have any new information in the article other than saying we are on the verge of completion all the references are what’s publicly available.
But it being a South Sudan source and news outlet and editors being local journalists perhaps they have had a sniff of news that we could be on to completion this month.
I will await till more credible outlets start to post news or we receive confirmation from the company but if we are on the verge of completion than certainly welcome news
https://www.southsudanminingjournal.co/en/post/savannah-nears-completion-of-petronas-acquisition-amid-technicalities/346
Nigeria hit by widespread blackouts in 'total system collapse'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66810202
For info, oral argumanet set for 3pm New York time today before the presiding judge, so looks like there won't be too long to wait for the court's decision.
With Thanks to Croasdalelfc from the other side:
Bloomberg
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Markets
South Sudan Walks Back Plan to Take Over Oil Fields by 2027
By Okech Francis
11 September 2023 at 12:37 BST
South Sudan needs more investment before it can take over oil fields from private operators and should renew contracts with the companies that expire in 2027, according to a national planning body.
State-owned Nile Petroleum Corp. “is still a small entity” and requires funding to reach the capability of companies such as China National Petroleum Corp. and Petroliam Nasional Bhd., from which it had planned to take over licenses as it expands operations, South Sudan’s National Economic Conference said in a summary of recommendations. Officials met for six days through...
Not a subscriber
hTTps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-11/south-sudan-walks-back-plan-to-take-over-oil-fields-by-2027
Thanks by the way affc
Lets hope consideration on all sides are taken for these dates .
Longshorttrade, copied from my notes, with some unknowns:
Blocks 3 & 7 PSC,
South Sudan Blocks 3 & 7 production sharing agreements are due to expire by 2027:
https://www.zawya.com/en/markets/commodities/south-sudan-offers-14-oil-blocks-to-increase-output-oyrmdjdv
Block 1, 2 & 4 PSC (expiry date ?).
Block 5A PSC (expiry date ?).
Correct Komakino - If ICC award than there could be potential sanctions imposed on any buyers of Chadian crude if they continue to purchase from chad following award making it difficult to export it's crude through the port of Kribi in Cameroon I would assume that this can be done potentially making life very difficult for chad to continue to monetize it's oil once a firm arbitration decision is made
Yes, LST, both parties have now submitted their statements. The judge has given today for both parties to submit their responses and then they will make a decision. Hopefully won't take too long, but reading the Citibank document today, the Gabon court freeze on the assets is still in place. Citibank don't believe any further action is required though Savannah are saying it is because of Chad's attempts to unfreeze the Gabon court ruling. Won't be surprised to see the judge rule in favour of Citibank on this one, though there are numerous other ways Save can recoup monies if the arbitration finds in their favour, specifically through the international banking system which all monies have to go through.