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Hi SOG,
With regard to, "This Covid 19 virus also has a series of 4 positive amino acids in a row. This just does not happen in nature." It would appear this statement is a quote taken from an article in the noted scientific journal, the Daily Mail. It is wholly incorrect and misleading.
As reported in the link below, the biologist Michael Eisen dismissed the Daily Mail article as “unbelievable bull****”, noting that far from being unusual, “33% of human proteins have four consecutive positive-charged amino acids”.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/13/newly-respectable-wuhan-lab-theory-remains-fanciful
Further refutals to the Mail's quote can be read in responses to Eisen's tweet https://twitter.com/mbeisen/status/1398735715509231619
Just so we're clear, I'm not having a go at you or your contributions to this board, I'm just keen to get the science right.
Regards,
Hotblack.
SOG - I shall get a t-shirt printed for you declaring 'Bats and Pangolins, my ar5e'. As I'm not sure which part of Thurso you're currently in (oh the irony if it's Pennyland) so I'll leave it behind the cistern in the second cubicle of the gents at Thurso train station.
Hotblack.
Very interesting of the issue with regards to unreported trials. if MOD involvement in testing we would never get to know. All information is highly classified and protected. They have the ability to investigate whoever, they want, how they want and when they want. There is no exception.
I would add, in my opinion, with reports of the origins of the virus, The Wuhan Institute of Virology, the funding of Gain for Function by Fauci since 2017 ( info kept from White House) after being stopped/ outlawed by Obama in 2014. The presence of the PLA at Wuhan shortly before the outbreak, further recent reports of Chinese military involvement going back to 2012. 99% of the virus is Coronavirus the other 1% is'unknown'. This Covid 19 virus also has a series of 4 positive amino acids in a row. This just does not happen in nature. Opposite charges attract and similar charges repel. There is much more that will not bore you with.
In light of the above i feel the MOD will have much more knowledge of this and hence will to some extent have made investigations into. Using a virus in biological warfare has been mooted since 2012. There is documentation which claims to support this. The Chinese would not even allow investigations by the WHO and prevented their access for over a month. Forensically cleaned laboratories and 1000's upon thousands of electronic files deleted. Information that the military may have, is not always fully passed onto the ruling elite in government . Likewise in China you certainly will never get to hear the truth from a communist government. Bats and pangolins my ar5e. The Chinese still refusing to have external investigations, Even denying that Gain of Function was ever carried out at Wuhan.
All very strange when you consider predictions have been made by notable people, of an even worse pandemic to come in the near future.
The world is indeed a very complex sinister place.
Regards
Hi SOG - no worries, I wasn't expecting an instant answer!
Thanks for the comprehensive response. Yes, it's essential that SAR are able to position themselves in such a way that we have options for the future. Will we see another HNW add to the pot in the next week or two? I expect so. Will we have access to the additional £30m? Yes, in due course.
As others have alluded, unreported trials may already have started and our postion can only grow stronger from here on in.
My other holding has recently been underwater but appears to be heading back to the surface in the coming days. The decision to go all-in on SAR is very much at the forefront of my thinking. As Thoth has pointed out, if you have complete conviction in a company then why wouldn't you go all in?
Buckle up those seatbelts, it's gonna get wild!
Regards,
Hotblack.
Morning HBD. apologies for a little late getting back to you.
Sar have not ever had a surplus of money.
Sar for years had a market cap of 10 to 30 million. Money was raised by large share dilutions.
To a large pharma irrespective of type of drug they have a pharma will display a little more than a passing interest. Yes, they may will be in discussions. But as Sar are a very small company, with a very small market cap, companies will only pick it up for next to nothing. They to an extent control the deal. He who has the big bucks dictates. You can be sure of that.
Recently, with our endeavours with regards to 1801 and covid in particular and a novel form of investment from high net worth individuals the market cap is now over 250 million.
A large pharma could pursue his point of no guarantee that any of the compounds will work. Yes, the compounds are new, novel even.
Bare in mind that we have raised circa 3.5 million and should we raise another 1.5 million , we have then demonstrated the ability to raise 5m which then opens the door to a further 30 million.
With this money Sareum ( subject to successful trial) could take their SDC 1801 molecule just for the purpose of Covid 19. Up front contracts with our government within a 12 month period you would expect to exceed 500 million income and most likely, more should 1801 be used for more than just down regulate the cytokine storm.
This is Covid 19 0nly and no other indication for our 1801 imunotherapy. We are now a company with an income, and kudos of not only having the best, but also the least toxic treatment for covid on planet Earth at this time.
Our market cap at least now at this point I would estimate at 4 billion. A very modest and I will say pessimistic approach based on 8 times annual turnover. Note this does not take into effect demand for compound outside the UK. The turnover will have a substantial increase on 500 million a year as will the market cap.
The point I make, apologies for being long winded. Sareum can now sit at the negotiating table completely in charge. Sareum now have options, having these options, has phenomenally increased not only their status, but also their negotiating power. Effectively, it will place Sar in the driving seat. For a total buyout at this stage, I would say the 13 billion recent deal would pale into insignificance.
The time period for this stage I would guess would be after stage 1 and 2 trials with fast track into treatment. 100 days, 7 to 14 days announcement of Agile. a further 60 day period for government contracts to be drawn up and filled. 167 to 174 days
5 and a half to 6 months to be in the driving seat with significant market increase when certain hurdles have been overcome and continuing success of compound.
These are just my thoughts on this. Oddly it does tie in with regards to timeframe of a takeover postulated likely to happen by other long term holders here.
Regards
That is what my gut is telling me! With the clues that have been communicated over the last 6 months I truely believe Sareum have something that is at the leading edge of medicine. Their confidence has encouraged them to take it further on the journey. The onboarding of the HNWI has given them the funding, the expertise and the network to do this. All my opinion obviously and as you say we will see the actual direction taken in the not too distant future.
brizzle ... I think it's a matter of twice bitten ... SAR was let down by an unnamed Chinese pharmaceutical company and Sierra is dragging it's feet (I surmise so they don't eclipse their Momelotinib baby ... which is IMO inferior) ... So going it alone is a real possibility ... I guess we will find out in the fullness of time ... Mafuta
Mafuta totally agree. This is their lives work in effect their legacy to the world. We all know the ruthlessness of big pharma and I think the HNWI has come on board to ensure the Sareum asset base reaches the market in full. I think this way we the shareholders will benefit the most (will take a little longer this way) and Tim and John will get full recognition.
First time posting been holding a year or so. Would like to thank the LTH for all their amazing work. This BB has been so insightful and greatly helped me keep the faith! GLA
SOG .. I have wondered if SAR have decided to go it alone myself ... perhaps they have had offers from the big pharmas in the past but didn't like the thought that their compounds may be put away in a box much the same 737 has ... It's good not to forget that there is huge money wrapped up in Pharmaceutical companies and we have seen some big fines handed out to companies involved in price rigging and other shenanigans lately ... Perhaps that's why the HNWI have been brought on board ... and my suspicion is that we will see yet others soon.
Hi SOG,
It's all just speculation but rather than sell the whole company as some predict, do you really envisage SAR wholly financing something like this? Or would it be more likely they go into partnership along the lines of, say, a 40:60 revenue split e.g. you make our pills and market/sell them at a max price of £10 per pill? I'm sure some large pharma would take 60% of multiple billions rather than have 100% of nothing.
Oh to be a fly on the wall at Sareum HQ.
Regards,
Hotblack.
Montyboz you are certainly not alone in that comment.
No option but to see how it pans out.
Remember historically all of our compounds have had excellent ADME properties. ie absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion all with very little toxicity. CHK1 SRA737 will verify this in clinical trial. Aurora FLT+3, 1801 and 1802 in preclinical.
Regards
Mafuta, That thought has crossed my mind too. It will certainly ruffle a few feathers.
£3 billion would not seem unreasonable for 1801 alone in upfront payment and peanuts in comparison, to the cost to the world economy.
I have a feeling that Sareum may finance this themselves. Fast track into treatment. 100 million 12.5 mg per day minimum stocks. 10 pounds per tablet it would work out half the price of the ruthless US pharma want to glean from their useless Baricitinib. As I said before, it is not fit as i see it to be in the same room. There are those that disagree with my view on this, one of which has sold a large chunk of their shares in the past month. Negative tendencies all of a sudden just after a peak in SP
There are interested parties of that we can be sure. The silence is deafening.
Regards
SOG ... I think the major pharmaceutical companies will be less than delighted ... for example in the case of Pfizer, the vaccine brought in $3.5 billion in revenue in the first three months of this year, nearly a quarter of its total revenue, the vaccine was Pfizer’s biggest source of revenue ... The company has not disclosed the profits it will derive from the vaccine, but it predicted that its profit margins on the vaccine would be in the high 20% range ... That translates into roughly $900 million in pretax vaccine profits in the first quarter.
Methinks we may get a buy out to keep us out of the market to protect profits.
stevebru.
My opinion and input.
Sareum has two Tyk2 Jak1 inhibitors. SDC 1801 and 1802 .
Due to the increased selectivity of Tyk2 over Jak2 it was postulated by Tim Mitchell that our SDC1801 could prove beneficial for the treatment ( especially down regulation of the cytokine storm ).
Early investigations indicate confirmation of down regulation in preclinical studies ie murine testing and modelling.
We await news on acceptance/entry to Agile platform, phase1 trial and fast tracked ( should this be an option that Sareum choose to take).
Both SDC1801 and 1802 can be administered via the intravenous or oral route. Oral route, more difficult to achieve as problems with how the compound is absorbed into the body. Look up LADMET.
The compound needs a carrier. The carrier and the compound passes through the intestinal tract, it is subject to stomach acids and a vast number of problematic phases that would not be otherwise encountered via the intravenous route.
We have developed a compound subject to manufacture, which can be taken orally. The purpose is to down regulate the cytokine storm. Much quicker to take an, oral bioavailability treatment either in a tablet of capsule than intravenously. No need 4 hr appointment at hospital. Reduced workload for our NHS staff and reduced costs.
Citizen79 )posted he had either dreamed, or came to the idea of a one a day tablet for the treatment of covid 19. Not taken overly serious, at the time.
We will now look at our competitor Baricitinib. Baricitinib is a Jak1 Jak 2 kinase inhibitor. Jak2 is associated with severe side effects and hence the NDA in the US have issued dreaded black box warnings. It was only allowed emergency use administration (EUA) It is not allowed by the NDA to be administered on its own.
Our Tyk2 Jak1 has no associated severe side affects. No toxicity issues were observed at 30 times treatment rates. Difficulty was experienced in reaching a maximum tolerated dose.
The idea of the orally taken compound for effective treatment of Covid had prompted investigations. In this aspect, to downregulate the cytokine storm that so far in models proved. Not proved effective in innate immune ie lung damage, pneumonia, due to fault with testing.
Baricitinib cannot be used in the true sense as a therapeutic treatment as is for EUA only due to severe side affects.
Should our SDC1801 continue and have the safety confirmed in stage one trials then there exists the probability that it can not only be used in the down regulation of the Cytokine storm but also in the prevention of. Tell me I am wrong.
In this case no need for vaccines,
A once a day pill, now becoming by the day more and more likely.
All subject to the medical profession of course and phase 1 trials.
Not sure big pharma's will like.
Regards
Could someone please enlighten me? Does The possibility of sar developing a covid pill relate to a one off pill or a daily pill? I assumed initially it was a one off pill as in a substitute to a vaccine but I've seen a couple of references to a daily pill? Thanks