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Everyone will do what they want to do.....my Dad was Financial Director of Next, and NG Bailey. Successful man. I didn’t listen to a word he said, and left school at 16 without a single GCSE. I made my own success. It’s what makes life great! GLA.
Thanks.
Hey Banbury, I was indeed! Don’t miss those days haha!
The main debt you talk of is not debt in a traditional sense, it’s asset backed by the ships thus significantly earnings enhancing. So in essence they will be generating far more from the earnings of those assets as they sweat them over time than the low cost of the ship loans. (And they are extremely low cost - about 3% from memory)
The actual business debt was largely paid off when they did the refinancing:)
That’s the big misconception of the debt position here... it’s nowhere near as bad as people think it is :)
Bond payment not an issue imo but get why people may be tetchy. Same with the competitions review.
All in all though risk/reward seems super duper here I reckon.
All the best
Millionaire - I don't think competitions review, bond repayment and high debt can be linked to doom and gloom. They are the actual risks i think you said you were in investment banking as a youngster so would be appreciative of that !
Slowandsteady - cruise lengths vary at £235pppn and 80% capacity these ships add £20m each to the bottom line 55k a day. I think of the sold out they total six weeks in duration so £2.3m. According to their sensitivity each 1ppn is worth 300k on the bottom line per annum so £882 per day. So if the average ticket is £300ppn the 55k a day becomes £110k per day and profit is £4.6m. Very crude but based on the companies estimates.
That's fair enough Banbury.
Time will tell and we will see....
People remain far too pessimistic imo and many can't see past the current doom & gloom media nonsense. Life will return to normal and people will go on holiday again.
Bearmilne11, you are welcome. Everyone here wish to get 10pounds plus by next year. But, there are too many things out of control by the company. No one knows when covid will be totally under control. Most people invest here because saga is not travel only, it’s insurance company with travel. So, it’s safer than other travel companies. Gl
Millionare i think the diference in our valuations is the perception of risk . There are risks :
- regulation by competions and market authority. Three year fixes are genius but are they unfair ?
- bond £250m due May 2024 needs refincing
- ship debt
- more covid incidents.
Im all here and want it to do well but imo multiples of 15 need a lot less risk than we carry.
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£12-15 is my estimate based on a 15 multiple.
@Banburyboy and @Gordonzhang thanks for taking time out to reply. Great information before I decide to invest and leave it until the madness is all over (hopefully not waiting until my 50th for that tub...)
In my opinion top end is £10. Thats based on a market cap of £1.4bn and profit before tax of £160m to £180m. Insurance made £135m last year and £130m the year before so need travel to make £30 -£50m.
I see this racing to £7 on news of cruises restarting and the interims to July 21. After that i think its a long haul. Company has been valued at £2bn previously but insurance is tougher and a few ancilliry businesses have been divested so i see £10 as a cap
150m pounds share placing and 15 to 1 dilution about 7 months ago. Just google it, more than enough news. Or just take two hours to check all posts since summer last year on this site. Do research before buy any share, then you will have something really nice on your 40th birthday. Good lucky
Thanks understand its a recover share, hence why I am sniffing about. Does anyone know if there has been a share dilution to raise fiance or the likes? What i can make out there looks to have been a drop down to £20 top end and then £10 in April 19. Realistically is £10 top end ?
Hi, this is a recover share, so it’s really depend on how covid things going on. I think we may see around 500 when bojo give green light restart all travels including cruises. If covid not comeback badly this winter we may see 7-10 in next 12 months. Dyor
Its not often i post but Like many covid gave me the time and money to invest in shares after initially investing in nova (after work colleague suggested). As it stands I have a decent pot with money in BP, Cine, IAG and some in funds. I have traced the 5 year chart but wondering if there has been any rights issues etc or what could this eventually play out at? This has increased 60% since i started watching it so wondering if still room to play as i am due a small bonus from work at the end of this month and want to put it towards getting a hot tub for my 40th next year