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All of this will mean nothing if they can manage to flog a part of their cruise line, will settle all their debt worries and some.
Deutsche Numis came out with a number of Upgrades and Buy recommendations yesterday and SAGA was one of them.
Its really a reiteration of the Numis Buy from last year at 154P
Another of their Buy recommendations that caught my eye was CAPITA.
If you think SAGA is a recovery play take a look at CAPITA
It's been a disaster but they have a new CEO with a strong IT background.
I added it my Portfolio a few weeks ago as its a play on AI.
Deutsche think its a Buy with a 250% upside at 35p !
I hope they're right.
DYOR
Maybe the rumours of the Insurance buyout are helping the current upward trend
Hi Alnwick,
Hola from SCL.
That was RNS 15/1/24-no change since then I think?
GL
Thank you Alnwick.
Hi Batfasted,
Eldose had 8,683,085 SAGA shares a few months ago. He now has 10,000,000.
Artemis have also added to their position.
Best Wishes
Hi Alnwick. What makes you think this man is buying?
Looks like Eldose Babu from Dubai is still buying.
Eldose is now SAGA's 2nd largest shareholder with 10,000,000 7.052%
Trading under way - market cap 11.5 Billion dollars.
I ordered a new boat in the pandemic times for 1.2m. The same boat to build these days is 2m! On this basis the value of the cruise ships are significantly under valued at 1b!
Flotation today in the US with a targeted valuation of 11 Billion dollars.
SAGA market cap £156 million
I don’t think SAGA will sell the Cruise Ships as they now make most of the Profits !
These ships are worth £1B in todays market.
SAGA Net Debt at year end was £637M
As interest rates fall and profits rise the debt will be paid down and refinanced.
I think the smart play is to sell the Insurance business and the new relationship with Ageas suggests that may happen. Ageas recently bid for Direct Line.
It’s difficult to determine the value of the Insurance business but Ageas have a great insider view and a relationship.
The current Market Cap of SAGA at £155M is
Crazy Cheap !!!!
A Sale of the Insurance business could potentially wipe out the debt and leave a Cruise and Travel Business making close to £100M.
Apply a very conservative multiple of 6 times profits and you see the Value upside
Then SAGA will be Sailing !!
Rupans, yeah I get the logic for sure. Let's hope we get some news soon. I have a couple of things that need a big top up sooner rather than later.
What about ship refits? Cruise division is the only part doing really well.
Still feel someone will buy Saga. Just need to get a crazy CEO like the one at Nationwide who wants to buy Virgin banking. Let's make a great company overnight a second rate outfit.
Rogue, so i think the recent appreciation in build cost has cancelled out some or all of the depreciation. so a sale of i estimate £600 to £700 million for both ships would wipe out the debt. Even if they leased out the ships at £60 million per year then with an EBITDA of £90 million for both ships would leave a profit of £30 million .... just for ocean cruise ...
Company is not run for the shareholders. So many dilutions. Shares given out to employees. Awful investment.
I suppose it is fine to give employees the incentive of another 1% of our remaining wealth since the Company has done so well for its shareholders. I hope they have not lowered the £6 trigger for the incentive plan.
Just the annual free shares for employees, so no news really…..albeit annoying to existing shareholders
“Saga plc has issued 1,565,919 new ordinary shares of 15 pence each in the Company for transfer into an employee benefit trust to satisfy employee incentive arrangements. The newly issued shares will rank pari passu with existing Saga shares”
Is this bad news?
Rupans, yes. Agreed. If it was gone then a profit is a profit...but then there's depreciation, or is the view now that bearing in mind demand for ships its appreciation?
Cheers Z puts the company value into perspective!!!!
This is a ship which is currently being built at the same dockyard, note it is slightly smaller and will cost $625m.
https://www.cruisemapper.com/ships/Asuka-3-2247
Alnwick,
thanks for that so the question what is the current build cost for a 1000 passenger cruise ship of similar quality ...
Rogue,
so that would be a sensible thing offsetting any one off profit from the sale of the cruise ships with a goodwill rightdown as there would be less tax to pay. The main point is sale and leaseback generates cash while goodwill is a non-cash item so the debt would go down on a sale ...