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I had a read through the links that OHS provided on Tuesday and the most relevant variation applications seem to be the one for Aberthaw which was Duly Made on 31/03/17 and the Lynemouth variation application received on 28/07/11/. Both were eventually approved. The Lynemouth variation is less comparable to SAE as far as I can see so I'll concentrate on the Arbethaw one.
The Aberthaw application is fairly recent (only 3 years ago) and was also an application to change the fuel source (to 100% biomass) and took 6.5 months from being Duly Made to the application being determined. The gap between the final bit of information being received by NRW (15/09/17) and the application being determined (11/10/17) is less than 3 weeks.
For contrast, the SAE variation permit was Duly Made on 11/03/2020 (note that this is a different date to the date the application was submitted) and we are currently about 7 months in.
You can interpret this as good news (we can expect the decision to be made soon) or bad news (this decision is causing more difficulties so maybe it's less certain). Personally, I'm pretty confident that the permit will be granted eventually, but I suspect NRW will demand SAE to meet higher regulatory standards than SAE were initially expecting.
For my own portfolio, I'm happy for the permit to be delayed by a few months (as long as it is eventually approved) as it gives me more opportunities to potentially increase my holding. The dream would be that it dips below 20p again so I can buy more before hitting 60p - 70p by March 2021
OHS have a gander at a post i made .....quiet little board an interesting mate
I've posted links but haven't read any yet - hope someone has more time to digest and put some views on here. Cheers, OHS
Aberthaw Power Station would be a good place to start for a variation order:
https://naturalresources.wales/media/682982/epr_rp3133ld_v014_variation-notice-consolidated-permit_signed.pdf
And Lynemouth and Drax for environmental permits outside of Wales:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ne63-9nw-lynemouth-power-limited-environmental-permit-issued
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ip23-7he-drax-power-limited-environmental-permit-issued
Has anyone come across any info regarding the lengths previous power station conversions have had to go to, to get an environmental permit? I'm assuming these questions and requests for yet more info is to do with the subcoal pellets and a change to the existing permit but I thought the last correspondence accepted that they could go down the route of 'new plant' permit? Do incinerator plants have to do this much environmental mapping? If so, I'm surprised we actually have any up and running! Frustration has kicked in once again and I'm quite annoyed. I appreciate what you're saying Phyl regarding NRW having to be thorough but this seems a whole other level imo. You must admit, if you had to pick a side that NRW 'wanted' the decision to fall on, you wouldn't choose SAE's would you?
Afternoon chaps. Just read the PAN-008534 Re-Schedule 5/2/-Q9. In essence, DR David Poole is clearly not satisfied with the SAE response resulting in a request for further information. The tone of the request is quite curt but, from my own experience, they often are very much to the point. In my own humble view, nothing to get unnecessarily concerned about here. Both NRW & SAE were expecting a lengthy period in which questions & answers were anticipated. As I've mentioned in previous posts, NRW are only doing their job. They need to be 100% satisfied any permit that has been granted has been done so with the utmost due diligence as they, themselves will be answerable to those that oppose the project and there will undoubtedly be a number of those! In essence then, I don't believe there us anything here to get unduly worried about but I respect everyone will have an opinion and want to make any buy or sell decisions based on their own research or belief. This latest NRW post only serves to demonstrate to me that dialogue is very much taking place as it should be and remain as optimistic as ever for a positive outcome hopefully by the end of Dec. Just my view that's all.
I am very much invested in SAE and think they are absolutely heading the right direction. However I work in the planning & development sector and these applications can take an eternity to determine. Consultants are incredibly busy and my initial expectation would be a circa 3-week turnaround to produce the information required. I am a little concerned about several references in the comments published today but all of that said I still believe they will get consent. We do need things to start moving however if it is to be before Christmas. Regards,
Yes OT, it's a lot of info and requests to take in and analyse and determine how long this will realistically take to answer but my thought was that its not a couple of hours work (ha!) so I chose to sell and re-evaluate
OHS Just read the NRW latest !
Need to think about this overnight and do a bit of research into the questions they are asking it’s quite in-depth
Yep - crazy. Don't research too much there - you would never have even punted, never mind invested! ha! It moves purely on speculation so I'll wait to see if another heard arrives and sell on the back of that.......or maybe I'll be invested when they actually get ratification!!!
Will do and thanks again for CLON but after looking into it saw more flags than a golf course lol happy with what I got though.
OT - I almost sold CLON when I saw the jump up to 27% up the spread was so large it wasn't worth it. I'll see what develops this week, ideally, I'm looking for 50% minimum but aren't we all, ha! Let me know your thoughts once you've read up on latest NRW and whether I was hasty. Circa 22p seemed to be the bottom last time but that may have been partly due to the hasty sell off. It may not affect the SP at all but if it does, I'm ready to buy back in!. OHS
https://publicregister.naturalresources.wales/Search/Results?SearchTerm=PAN-00853
Top one. Then details /related documents. But can’t open on iphone
Hi OHS, where can i access the correspondence on NRW? Do you have a link? I'm struggling to find it.
Hope you done ok on the tip you gave me OHS got my 20 percent and out by 10. Will look at update when I get home thanks for letting us know
I'll be fully transparent mate, I made like £200 profit after all selling/buying/selling fees taken off but if it drops again, I'd rather be out of it with a chance of getting back in then to watch it fall again whilst being in it. It's a gamble at the end of the day (like it was last time) but I can be quite rash at times so sold instinctively rather than think about it some more
Phyl - there's too much which would be 4 or 5 full posts on here - better to read yourself and make up your own opinion. When I made up my mind to sell the first time around it was due to my loss of faith in NRW actually wanting this permit to be granted. I then took a breather and reread lots of info, other investor's points on here and then the Boris wind energy statement and renewed my faith. Now I find myself back at my first line of thought with regard to NRW and coupled with other concerns (nothing to do with SAE) I felt it best to take another period of reflection.
Phyl mate, it's a massive e-mail but I'll see if I can copy and paste some snippets
OHS, are you able to outline briefly what he's asking for?
Another update is on the NRW site - there is no end to this guys requests for info and the latest ones do not make for a good read - I've lost patience once again (I know I've become fickle) but I get the impression this most recent request is proper 'heel dragger' so I'm out again until I hear something positive. OHS
Agree Phil and have funds ready if it drops but then again news could come from a few fronts at any time !
It's the yo yo effect. Might need to tighten the seat belts a tad particularly over the next few weeks and potentially till yr end by when, hopefully, the NRW will grant a new Uskmouth EP permit. As Sean Parsons says, they are still very much on-track. Hopefully we can enjoy more ups than downs.
Morning all
And ta for that OHS