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It is a bit naive to be valuing the deal based on the minute to minute gyrations of NFC's share price. The important thing will be an assessment of the value of the combined entity post acquisition, albeit with an enlarged number of shares. The rational for the proposed take over is that the sum will be greater than the parts. I cannot sell NFC shares today as a result of the take over, so the immediate share price is largely irrelevant, unless you are a novice investor.
Increase sorry!
I agree. It's been too easy to get the offer price down in what is clearly an aggressive effort to do so. Perhaps why ADVT didn't reduce their offer.
Sanchez- regardless, this has made things very interesting and very murky.
NFC’s offer is now effectively 224p. This was my issue from the very beginning with their offer… it was so intrinsically linked to their share price. S4 Capital on all their acquisitions make it a 50% stock and 50% cash offer. NFC’s 80% stock was always alarm bells for me. So, here we are with NFC and ADVT offering almost the same as each other. But, ADVT and SAA have burnt their bridges and despise each other, so I don’t think ADVT get the deal done. But equally, why would ADVT accept NFC’s offer that is no better than what they have offered?!
Intriguing and will be interesting to see how this plays out. One solution is for NFC to make it a better cash offer, rather than stock.
The two deals are not far off parity now. It's not much of a reach to consider who might be driving this who benefits, and why. It's clearly not just normal market trading.
1. Release weak hands ahead of eventual deal. (Who then sits on a pile of discounted shares below deal value.
2. Achieve a lower bid value for the NFC deal.
3. Coerce a higher offer or withdrawal to achieve a greater profit or improve the odds for the initial offer.
Urraca - relentless deramping? LOL!
I’ve only posted 10 times on the SAA board, mostly saying I agree with Sanchez, or that ADVT/NFC might need to sweeten the deal a bit and that ultimately it will hopefully go through!
Looks to me like this is a case of attacking the NFC SP under the guise of market weakness to lower the bid value, in order to get a higher offer at which point both SP's correct. Someone should have a good look into what's happening here. It seems v circumspect. Especially with all the competing interests. I wonder at what point this becomes manipulation.
The SP is nowhere near the bid price. It's c10% below the lower AdVT offer.
No Doc, I think it's your relentless deramping that's dragged the price down.
NFC share price came off, so that won’t have helped, effectively meaning the price of the bid is reduced.
What opportunist bs. Steady all day and then a tree shake on no volume because the US markets are having a panic attack. Very poor form.
More 6 figure buys. Seems pretty apparent some very deep pockets strongly believe a deal is happening. You don't buy big at these levels otherwise.
Joteller - almost impossible to answer that one. It looks like Vin/ADVT are trying to get them to sweeten the deal a little bit. Maybe same stock element but 50-60p cash instead of the current 40p.
It could backfire and as mentioned over the weekend, the board would be more toxic with each other than ever.
I don’t think we’ll see anyone else bid (S4 Capital for example) but never say never.
What are the chances of a final counter offer?
Not an easy pay day just yet.
Plenty that could still happen here, including the NFC share price falling. Given that the offer is so heavily stock based and not cash, that could have a material impact. Market volatility has been such recently that you can't rule that out.
Just had a £400k and a £200k buy land, looks like the big boys loading up for easy pay day
Still some upside on the table, pick up and make 8% easily
NFC continuing to tick up. Seems contradictory for SAA to be so far below even the ADVT offer when the market is clearly showing confidence in NFC as a bidder. Vin's play does look like a case of want me onboard, add a bit more. She doesn't seem against the company as a buyer. Hopefully the next material RNS is a bid increase / best an final.
The slight issue with NFC’s offer is that it is predominantly stock, rather than cash. NFC were at 1025p back in January. I don’t know a huge amount about NFC but the SP seems to have been on quite the run. Were it to go back to that level, the offer would effectively be 207.5p, the same as ADVT’s.
Best guess from here… NFC sweeten the deal a bit for Vin.
NFC sp currently 1308p, so up 42p from the sp at the time of the offer. Pushes the value of the offer up from 247.2pps to 254.1pps.
Just posturing to try and squeeze a bit more out of NFC. They do not actually have enough shares to be sure they can block this, now that their letters of intent have been withdrawn, and irrevocable undertakings revoked. But it would clearly all be much easier if they were onside. How much money would that save? Possibly up to 10p a share - if I were NFC I'd bump it up say another 3p cash per share.
"..significant synergies available to NFC.."
Looks as if, because of those significant synergies, Vin Murria is thinking that SAA is worth more to NFC than to ADVT.
Seems to fly in the face of what the poster who attended the investor conference claimed to have heard.
Taverham - agree with what you’re saying. I suppose she could say she would unlock more value from SAA.
All very messy. Will be interesting to see what the share price does. Probably drop as NFC’s bid bow doesn’t have Vin’s support, which it obviously needs.
Her stance is laughable because she is saying ' the others are offering much more than us but that isnt enough' however we said' we wont offer anymore and are thinking what we should do'.
Well it is make your mind up time you cant have it both ways and btw with your illogical mind I am not surprised the other neds rejected your approaches.
Latest para. in the story - from today's RNS
"The Company believes that although NFC is a credible buyer, its offer price does not reflect the value of foregoing control and the significant synergies available to NFC."
"AdvancedAdvT and Vin Murria continue to consider their options."
Vin Murria may attempt to push NFC to a higher bid?
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ADVT/response-to-press-comment/15463172