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@moon - What has happened to the Mill?
I have been following this board on and off for almost 2 years. I finally decided to register and post. I held and held in the hope that something would come good. Sadly I have sold today losing over £40k. Its been appalling and my worst ever investment. How can something of such actual value and promise be mismanaged as badly as to be all but worthless? Im truly sorry to others like me who have lost so much money on what on paper should have been a strong share. Something must be afoot and I hope those hanging on will not continue to be stung so badly.
Seems to be a combination of grades not being good enough, management not being good enough and costs being too high. Profitable at high copper prices but might need to be mothballed at historic prices.
Too many thought they were going to get rich whilst management seems to have done ok.
Because they don't know how to run a business .it has such a good potential and has huge amount of minerals ,but they don't know how to manage long term finance and when to issue rns . They should have issue q3 production result ,let the sp to rise then do a placing in 25 to 27 or first manage new gen 20 million more and fix ore sorter to increase production to repay the loan from increase revenue got from ore sorter ....even my daughter can understand better finance than them
.
Why would they do that?
If they sale rmm today how much will we get people recon? How much per share we get ...any idea anyone if they make a firesale ...
Investing new funds is a real punt clearly, until we see the CFO agreed plan.
I have funds to put into a couple of my shares in this sector. Been thinking on which. Logically as a long term investor these prices for the assets in the ground are a bargain of course.
But equally, if we have no sensible way of digging them out without huge oenalty....this could drop even more depending on the delay on, and then the actual news.
Hard one at the moment to do other than sit on hands until that call. Unless you are feeling lucky ..... Well am I.....??
Too difficult to accurately forecast short term direction and speed of the SP change. Total guesswork.
It can't be that bad I recon as copper was over 4 just 3 months ago ..
Wakey, Company's interim financial report which will be released before the end of September.
The RNS states that an update on the capital raise / balance sheet restructure will follow alongside or after the half yearly results. These results aren’t due out until the last week of October. This doesn’t strike me as a company in distress as you might think from the plummeting SP but rather a company that is planning ahead in a sure and steady measured way. IMO the 50% plus drop is overdone and this will recover albeit maybe not back to 20p but perhaps Mid teens.
I think we are looking at circa 3.5 by month end. There simply is nothing in the pipeline (new) to put the brakes on here, the rise recently to 25 looks to be a classic pump before the crappy news of recent. Next stop is the cash call before December.
We not at all got company like Gwmo that only got 1.5 million in bank much worse company out there
How serious is the position with this company ??
It was hitting 60 then dropped and bounced around the 20-30 range now this dramatic drop almost instantly ....
How close in reality is a delisting or even bankruptcy !!
If people behave the same way as me they scroll through all the content since they last came on the page and stop on the quality content like your post. So I don't think it gets overlooked.
....It's been nearly a week since that incompetent communication that needs followed up on. WTF is going on?
That's okay Elprofessor.
Sadly it's largely pointless though as within ten seconds it ends up at page 100 as moon posts 50 messages and then the board turns into squabbles.
Over and out
Atb
Selected Expenditures January 2021 to date
Underground Development 19.4 Equipment repair and purchase 8.0 Diamond drilling 1.5 Additional Tailings Capacity - to 2026 1.5 Surface Infrastructure (office and camp) 1.0 Mandatory payments to creditors
Thanks again,
Prof
NP.
I'm certainly no accountant but just giving a view of what the c1/c3 costs may be based on actual h1 production and last year's costs as a guide.
Plus forward looking if hit 7000 tons.
I wanted to do for my own mind anyway tbh. Will see what the actual half yearly says. That will be the key. But I think my are okay ballpark and to base a view on.
Atb
Fukurokuju,
Thanks very much for putting that effort in. I confess that as a non-accountant I am struggling a bit so would be grateful for the input of any accountants that we do have.
Best wishes,
Prof
As we've been talking about this I've been getting my head around the annual accounts more. The report shows the c1 & c3 metrics are based on the costs (with c3 being more inclusive) and dividing by the saleable copper.
C1 Costs of $30,818,000 ÷ 7,228,000 (pounds Cu)= $4.26
C3 Costs of $42,151,000 ÷7,228,000 (pounds Cu)= $5.83
Remember c3 uses fully allocated costs.
H1 2022 production confirmations showed 2,634 saleable tonnes copper. Which is 5,806,976 lbs.
So we can use the actual production against a cost assumption and work out the broad c1/c3 costs.
Note about my calcs modelled below.
1. As we don't have the 2022 costs I have used the 2021 costs from the annual accounts, as per the model used for the c1/c3 metrics.
2.I've approximated the half yearly costs by diving the annualised costs by 2. This is indicative only for best guess. In reality their may be a seasonal weighting.
3.It's based on actual copper production as detailed above.
4.4. Full year projection assumes 7000 tonnes saleable copper for the year and same costs as 2021 but I think they'll be higher.
With the above caveats this is potentially what H1 2022 c1/c3 costs could be and what full year could be.
Half year 2022:
C1 Costs of $15,409,000 ÷ 5,806,976 (pounds Cu)= $2.65 per lb
C3 Costs of $21,075,500 ÷ 5,806,976 (pounds Cu)= $3.62 per lb
Remember c3 uses fully allocated costs.
Full year projection:
C1 Costs of $30,818,000 ÷ 15,432,358 (pounds Cu)= $1.996
C3 Costs of $42,151,000 ÷15,432,358 (pounds Cu)= $2.73
Remember c3 uses fully allocated costs.
In summary at the current copper price around $3.53 lb RMM and an estimated c3 cost of $3.62 lb RMM are at around break even (maybe a slight loss or slight profit) when measured against the actual fully allocated costs (when known). This doesn't include the long term development, exploration, debt repayments etc as per my earlier comments.
So operationally they are viable but given the costs and building in the excluded items (most significantly debt until restructured) I'd say they aren't profitable as a company ATM.
Forward looking if they hit 7000 tonnes in 2022 their c1/c3 costs will reduce further (as above) at the current copper price around $8k would generate about $55 million. However when you consider the fully allocated costs ($42 million 2021) and debt repayments and dev/exploration spend it's close.
Happy to hear challenges. P.s. I lied about not spending anymore time on it.
Atb
Yes it sound bad but in mining it’s so expensive as we have all seen. In period every thing exspive just remember that gonna get worse
Right how much u think drill cost how much u think new truck cost and exspand storage how much u think it cost move mill set it up new electronic if u went to zoom tb said they need upgrade electronic but don’t no how so it don’t effect bussiness to much. Ore sortor u keep laughing at me it’s ok once we do get everything together it really would be rmm best time ever.. rmm been trying upgrade electronic for years but can’t afford it.
Fukurokuju,
Thanks for the workings. A couple of points:
-C3 may have been 30.818million in 2021 and while a large part of that will be fixed costs there will also be a variable cost to production. Any estimate on that?
-You are using $1M a month for the debt of $20M. Presumably that includes capital repayment. At 10% were capital repayments to be further deferred then interest on debt would be c$2M which should be well manageable at 8,000 tons per annum provided there is a decent gap between AISC and copper price.
Thoughts,
Prof