Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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Come on moon, put the charts away, if this hits 1p its becasue of the debt and finance not becasue some chart trend said so. Charts cant predict movements when its as volatile as this.
Chart is saying 1p
It's only being 5 or 6 weeks ago that multibagger was posting 10 times a day that rambler was hitting 1.00 before year end. Very thoughtful of him to be back on board now warning everybody not to invest at 4p . I've been on a few boards and still haven't came across anybody that ramped up a share more than he has with rambler lol.
Everything has been met share price crashes as said. Now question is next move 3p
Only for tight supply and rising demand in China ATM copper prices be testing all time lows . Real danger that central banks will let there economies dip into recession to try and get inflation under control. Very hard to see copper prices playing ball with us at least in the short term and we aren't exactly in a position bar getting a very favourable deal with newgen that we can wait to take advantage when it does finally rise. Unfortunately we are in very uncertain times which is reflected in broader stock market and plenty off ramblers out there ATM unsure what next few months will bring.
I’m happy I bought loads today. When the majority shout sell or don’t buy, I buy and when they are shouting buy or hold, I always sell. It has worked a treat for me.
Imho DYOR GLA
3p target
Having been seconded to the M&A team, I agree with all the points that @Know0 is making.
I qualified and worked for a big4 firm before moving into industry so the points you have made are correct.
There is no point selling now for those considering selling. Given the vast potential of this company, it is very unlikely this will go into admin. IMHO of course.
If a company goes into administration, the secured creditors and govt taxes get the first cash (and the administrators costs)
The all unsecured creditors (Elemental would be one of these along with HanCon and haulage company etc
Then shareholders
BUT as I said, there is NO chance (IMHO) of this going into admin and I would sell all now rather than buy more as I have, if I had any doubt about administration
But they aren't able to cover current costs falling due....they are out of terms with suppliers.
Also they've constrained production / guidance as they can not cover it short term.
I think this is more precarious than many care to admit. Having said that I'm not writing them off quite so readily as DJ, they can still make a deal.
The trouble is that really they need a boat load to really thrive and profit as a company.
I don't think they'll get a boat load, or are searching for that either.
It feels a little like they are trying to raise a reasonable amount (but still not insignificant) to keep going, but again in the hope that the copper price picks up, as the plan seems to be get money to get by rather than get money to fix the root cause.
It likely to be a vicious circle again, without capex on development.
Operationally certainly better but they are ahugh cost producer, in an inflationary market with lowering commodity prices and insufficient balance sheet.
I don't like to phrase this as a 'punt' I dislike that term and it devalues people's research and effort and personal choice, but it's for sure not a clear cut as many as inferring and it is certainly high risk.
I won't get into the asset sale squabble lol.
Why? They are not a secured creditor that we are aware of. We dont know how much aged creditors beyond terms is but expect a couple of $M max
Net debt is $20M (inc NewGen, Caterpillar etc) (down from 31 Dec 21)
BUT there is absolutely NO chance of this going into administration - see explanations above
Dan - TB confirmed this is what they are doing currently - reduces cost per tonne as they mine the higher grades whilst CU is lower.
He was very clear as to the fact they are able to pay all costs currently falling due.
The next update will be interesting - if its just NewGen deferral or if they have a more complete package to offer with debt and equity - they will need shareholders approval for straight forward dilution.
This is so 2021!! Apart from the fact we are in a much better operational position than then
Onwards and upwards
GLA
A couple of other companies for simple comparison. Pure gold (main market) operates at a loss and obtained refinancing recently as did VAST. If they can continue and secure funding then surely RMM can. Could RMM concentrate on mining the high grade areas for now whilst copper and gold are low (mine less and get better production figures) and then switch to low grade areas if/when prices recover ? GLA, Dan
Ryan - M&A is my speciality - Ive sold NASDAQ companies down to £1M turnover companies
You sold - well done you did the right thing. You dont want to buy back - sensible you shouldn't.
RMM is not a distress sale but if it was it would sell for multiples of Current Market Cap - BUT they want to go it alone
My first decent size acquisition from was Administrators - I bought a company with £10M turnover and 89 staff. I then sold it a few years later at a decent profit.
So apologies for this, but a part time publican and cafe owner has no idea about M&A in the big boys world.
Yesterdays RNS gave me confirmation of what I expected after the early Sept car crash RNS - and that is that its not that bad and I have successfully restructured companies in way worse states with significant gearing - RMM gearing is tiny!
GLA
not forgetting the gold too with nice grades from the North zone (e.g. · 12.00m with 5.68 g/t Au, 11.00m with 4.71 g/t Au and
48.59m with 1.85 g/t Au) - see rns of 28/4/21. GLA, Dan
@Dan - I was thinking the same thing nothing like SXX! Totally different company and a lot less debt! This is still sellable with current debt and is producing good amounts of copper!
not quite the same league as sxx (was main market, and lost plenty there). They needed financing in the 100s of millions to dig a very deep hole for a very cheap commodity (potash). RMM is already producing and, IMO, has low debt. Just need copper to move up and RMM can become profitable - cut a few heads too perhaps. I would imagine a lot of small companies are in dire straights currently, but have not admitted it yet. GLA, Dan
SXX springs to mind ……. Not looking good
Clear that some posters do not understand selling a company or selling the assets are 2 completely different transactions and have 2 completely difference outcomes.
An equity sale would give the new owner everything - they would probably need $5M to clear old debt and buy some time and a further $10-15M for Ore Sorter
This is not much money - so talk of $50M or $200M is complete nonsense.
An exploration company would love to find Ming after spending $50M and look to spend a few $00M setting it up (and have LD thrown in for free!) -
So an asset sale of MM for $100M is certainly not out of the questioning taken as a going concern
An equity sale (either in cash or paper swap) is therefore very attractive to a buyer at $50M plus (probably $75M)
Also to dispel the myth, but NewGen cannot force the company into administration (from what has been provided wrt the loan note) as they are not even owed their first payment for over a month and if the one payment is made (by whatever means) then they cant do anything until December etc
The Board of Directors have a strict test as to whether they are trading whilst insolvent - if they are, they can become personally liable for debts. They will have had expert advice here and clearly they believe there is way out of this.
NewGen is the only generally secured creditor (people like Cat Finance for the new equipment will be secured against the specific plant) and the biggest unsecured creditors will be HanCon who are our miners and the haulage company and fuel suppliers. Some of the local suppliers gave a lot of leniency to RMM during Covid and many will now be expecting their money, BUT would probably wait a little longer
Without seeing the Aged Creditors I would expect Hancon to be the largest creditor - they have recently taken shares at 29p against 2021 liabilities so no doubt they have bills from Q1 2022 that are not being paid - but they continue to mine. They know mining its their business and they keep mining Ming for us.
So talk of administration IMHO is complete nonsense as no supplier is looking to force that.
In considering the next 3 months cashflow forecast, if NewGen will defer, there is no urgent need but obviously they will be wanting to repay the faith provided by HanCon and others
All this means that a refinance or a sale can easily be arranged in an orderly manner that will give Brad Mills (and all us other shareholders) a reasonable return - not the £1 we all hoped for by end of next year etc, but certainly a return.
However, it appears (from reading the RNS) that BOD want to go it alone - get a restructure of current NewGen debt plus get additional project funding for the ore sorter - but they still have to raise some more equity to get that way ($1-2M min) and need CU to get closer to $3.70 or above
One thing for sure K2 got out cos they had a closer look at the books
Insiders will not be allowed to buy or sell shares at the moment as they w
The bloke never replies...regardless, I've told him how I feel. I just about avoided using any expletives in my email.
Have you had a reply?
If you want to contact Toby...
tbradbury @ramblermines.com
Gosh, I normally kick myself for not buying a share and missing an upward move, but relieved I didn't buy here. Feel really sorry for Trek and all other investors here, as a huge hit to take the last couple of weeks plus today :(
@DJ Where does it state it had assets of £200 million and no debt? Or whatever you said?
Dj. I have researched and looked over the rns update regarding the results and restructuring goals. And I have to say I feel your in a very negative place. And to compare a working mine. Lots of staff to buying a car well. As I said negative to say the least. I have also been the same on other stocks. And been very wrong. Just a bit of balance. That’s all. Gla.