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marfthew thanks for the response. Your rationale makes sense given your opinion. I think a resolution with the CWU will see an increase in SP as it will give some confidence to potential investors IA wont be an issue at least for a while.
Fridays trades still need some explaining and you may be right that an II has/will increase, however more Blackrock, Adelphi have reduced to offset any newcomers.
Re Fridays trades I check this site https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/transportation/lse-rmg/royal-mail-shares#ownership
and it is showing in section 9.3 a significant reduction in II holdings which is relected in the increase in general public holdings this has previously corrolated with a change/increase in short levels. No doubt we will find out today/tomorrow.
If they have sold this level it would appear the SP is holding up pretty well.
Hi JBTHISTLE,
I still think the short interest will pick up again. Obviously a new player in Millenium got involved last week. But Blackrock seem to want out for now and are reducing daily and obviously they held the largest short position, their continued buying has held the stock up nicely the past week.
Personally I think it all comes down to the union news now, the share price seems priced for perfection from the outcome of these talks, given its very quick near 45% jump, anything less and it will be an excuse for the short interest to increase again. I still think it may try the resistance above 250 this week and I will be placing a short position there.
If I was a LTH I would be selling into this strength right now, perhaps half Or three quarters of my holdings. It is currently on a technical basis very overbought on the dailies and at some point there will be an opportunity to get in cheaper again. These things never just go up in a straight line as any RMG LTH knows well enough.
marfthew I agree it could have been DK taking some profit and we may see an RNS in the coming week although some of his declarations have been quite slow in arriving.
Surely the main impact of the sale if it was him or others would have been felt on the day i.e Friday? If he continues to bank profit and sell yes the SP may go lower. I also wonder who would have bought these as quite a big purchase? I personally dont think it will encourage that many LTH's to sell seeing a trader take profit. Have you revised your timeline for the shorters to increase as it has been quite a steady reduction last week?
scampthedog I expect that you are correct that the CWU and members may not want to see the SWW traded for either an element of a paydeal or possibly a lump sum what did you suggest £500 but the business may try and wrap up in a wider deal. Would be interesting to hear other opinions from current employees. We shall see.
Re Blackrock it is quite complex as we dont know what their current net position is although I do recall Fruitster being able to say they were net long at one point maybe someone more expert than I could say. It is however possible that they could have increased their short late on Friday and could buy back lower on Monday or in the future but as they have been closing it would be a change of current strategy for them but like other traders if they see an opportunity they could have quickly changed. Interesting days ahead.
Scampthedog
You keep saying the Blackrock selling to lower their shorts. Blackrock would have to buy back the share to lower their short. It would show as a buy.
This was a big sell and surely will impact the share come Monday. Had to be DK taking some profit here surely, he’s quids in right now
I would be very surprised myself if the posties accepted 3.9% over 3 years as a pay deal...and even more surprised to see them accept 1.7% for the first year.
Pullinger will want, at the very least, 5.2% over the next three years in my opinion.
Plus, an hour reduced off the working week would not be acceptable as part of any pay rise...the CWU see it as a separate issue entirely.
As for why the "Shorter Working week" is so important in delivery...you answered your own question. As further endorsed by OliGarch below.
And regarding the big trade: perhaps it was too late in the day for it to have been BlackRock selling. But two thing: 1; some big trades sometimes go through as reported sells...then are corrected at some later time, 2; some trades are reported later than they are actually executed.
Could it not have been BlackRock selling off the greater remainder of their borrowed stock? After all, they know full well the share price will open lower than at the present price on Monday morning...why not buy back then, after selling Friday, and then close their position?
Any way, at the end of the day...it is what it is. For better or worse. Night all!