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ralph2010,
One of the worlds top Litigation funders has bet a few million on a good outcome. Its not guaranteed but do you know better ?
I'd be wanting far more than $60m for 15% -- in that scenario , it would make the whole shooting match only worth $400m = £315m.
" potential $200+m" I wouldn't count those chickens !
Kurgan2.0,
Having put all this effort into de-ramping Rockhopper, I suspect you probably know a bit more about this story than you care to let on. Hypothetically speaking a farm down from RKH of say 15% of Sealion could net something like $60m to RKH Plus the $10m from sale of Egyptian assets and a potential $200+m from the Ombrina Mare Arbitration would set us up well for Sealion phase 1 development.
LTT: DES - 8 drills!!!! 8 ****ing drills and they put them in just about the only areas of their acreage that DIDN'T have oil!!!!! The whole story would have been different if they had of hit the black stuff. All the negativity from the "oil to water" weekend (I can still remember the sheer excitement on that Friday) has ensured a cloud has stayed over the FIs ever since.
A few years ago now, when Desire was doing all the talk of going back to the Falklands as Shell data and drill results showed great promise after re-evaluation, there was a little company called Rockhopper that went and picked up all the acreage around Desires. I had a cheeky punt then thinking if Desire came good, RKH would be dragged along by the coat tails, little did I know Desire would falter and RKH with one drill would hit the jackpot! What a ride that was, I have taken punts on other investments and they have failed, but that's the nature of the beast.
The above was more luck than good managemnt and the cards are stacked against it happening again but who knows, not me, not you, but where the RKH share price was is only relevant if you bought high and hugged an held. For anyone with a balanced portfolio with a little cash to spare and fancies a cheeky punt, they could do a lot worse. Good luck with whatever your plan and strategy is.
This is not advice for anyone to buy/hold/sell but just think why you would do any of those depending on your current position.
LTT
Hopefully hear something in December, failing that Jan 2020. It's interesting the article about PMO, Durrant seems to be playing it cool giving some conservative promises, partly as that is very sensible at the moment as oil seems to bouncy around daily and weekly in a knee jerk reaction style, but also gearing up for a great 2020 for them.
Every couple of dollars on oil and their expectations to pay down debt will increase, same for the industry as a whole at the moment, lots of underinvestment and streamlining and cost cutting. I can't help but feel a few E&P will be posting more positive returns of the next year. more so if the US sort their trade deals and Shale continues to falter.
The thing that interests me is IF it comes to pass, PMO might, just might be able to secure a partner for SL and fund things themselves. I know, I know this is not something that is likely at the moment and the BEST scenario for everyone is the UKEF loan. At the AGM it was clearly pointed UKEF was make or break. But now as we head to 2020, yes UKEF not get involved would hit PMO hard and RKH REALLY hard, but if PMO kept it's head down; paid down debt with Zama sale and then beat expectations of further debt reduction (as mentioned it could be getting down to nearer $1.3B rather than the conservative $1.5B), late 2020 SL could still be a goer without UKEF.
Of course for the above to be possible, it would mean RKH surviving the fallout from UKEF loan not happening. At which point PMO might make a whole paper offer to put RKH out of it's misery! But should RKH survive that, and PMO reduce it's debt considerably then why wouldn't they try and fund themselves in a more positive environment. Let's face it, as mentioned PMO needs to replace reserves and production over the next 5 years; what options are there around with such an understood basin with great fiscal terms?
Its all getting interesting and I feel a little more positive despite the lack lustre share price. I expected the share price to just tread water after the AGM and everything would be dependant on UKEF, but I didn't expect such a drift down. For a cheeky punt it might be worth it but only as a highly speculative punt, I won't be betting the farm.
FWIW and IMHO, I still cannot see why UKEF would not get involved; it's a big loan, but by no means top end; it also helps an industry that employs a lot of people that this past 5 years has been knocked and hit quite hard, never mind the knock on of supplier involvement and of course the Falklands themselves, huge investment and money to the FIG which will then pay for it's share of military support in the region and then some.
LTT