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You also have to ask who holds the shares & would they be prepared to sell for peanuts? I think the majority of shareholders have lost so much money they would rather lose the "peanuts" they have but with a chance of recouping at least a decent proportion of their losses rather than seeing the company bought outright for next to nothing! Why would we worry about selling when we have already lost so much...may as well stay until the end as we have as good as nothing now in value terms! I would not sell,I still have faith even if it seems misplaced at times.
They can't buy the company for peanuts. It's currently valued at peanuts but I'd suggest that would change somewhat if a collaborator became interested in an outright purchase.
Why would anyone enter into a substantial deal when they could buy the company the company for peanuts.
Suprised2 - I the distinction we can make between the two set of circumstances (when you first invested on the back of promising pre-clinical, and where we are now) is that back then I don't think there was any ongoing collaborations with big pharmas (correct me if I'm wrong). The intention was for the company to take the products to market. They were shooting for the stars and it was going to take significant sums and time to get there.
What we know now, and is very much the investment case, is that there are a number of ongoing collaborations, and there is a precedent (codiak and evox) for pre-clinical POC data to be out licenced for huge sums. Rene will not take the products to market and will not have to pay for it either - indeed they will make money from milestone payments etc as the products advance through the trail phases. The upside for the share price from these levels is not dependent on the product even ever making it to market. That's what I like about this model, and what I think makes this a distinctly different investment case.
You make an interesting point Phil.I fall into the first category buying what, forgetting subsequent dilution, was in effect a dime share. Like now, development at the time of purchase was pre-clinical and years off production and like now had vocal advocates, who saw little risk but only eye watering returns. It’ll be interesting to see whether Rene 2 mirrors that experience or whether today’s cheerleaders will have more luck. I hope they do but like we experienced industry odds are stacked against it.
I think the first type of investor you have described clearly has paid a high premium for what has not turned out to be a good investment, for a number of reasons. The second type of investor, from these beaten down levels, has a genuine chance of making some significant gains. If the company can secure a licencing deal for it's exosomes, then the upfront fees would likely eclipse the current MCAP substantially.
There are no guarantees, clearly, however 5 of the 7 ongoing exosome collaborations are with much bigger partners, some of them global pharmas. These companies are not collaborating with Rene out of sympathy, they are genuinely exploring the possibility of finding the next generation drug/therapeutic delivery system. If the data generated in collaboration with Rene is what they are seeking, then they will do a deal to licence it. As we know from Evox and Codiak, these deals can be substantial.
There's also a chance of licencing legacy assets such as hRPC or CTX; although I think the focus and expectation is very much on exosomes.
There are 2 types of people interested in this stock: long term investors, Woodford Patient Capital Trust investors and Welsh taxpayers, all massively ripped off whilst the company paid its board millions of pounds for a company with a now 14M marketcap; secondly newbies interested in current price potential. Would say to the second group, have sense and integrity and move along to better opportunities. Board are squeezing the pips for themselves before it goes completely belly up in 2023.
Thanks Sajy. Normal business practice suggests a required cash buffer of at least six months. On the basis of your hypothesis we should therefore expect completed deals between now and Spring. These need to be significant to positively impact cash. A proportionate lead time also suggests these have to be in train to prevent a cash call, which as you imply would be contextually difficult. Let’s hope recent recruitment provides some evidence that non-diluting cash is on its way! I’ve learnt over many Rene years however not to hold my breath but I do hope your ties and knowledge of the company proves to be correct. Have a good weekend.
As you know the company have stated cash runway is mid 2023, however I think it's more likely end of 2023, as there are no trials to pay for. Fosun are picking up wages of a few staff and the partners we have for exosomes are also paying us, so the burn rate is low. The company are planning on signing further deals and these deals are in addition to any Exosome licensing deals, which should extend the runway further. The company have no intentions of doing a placing especially at such a low price. These are my thoughts based on the research I have done.
Thanks sajy; you’ve clearly an inside track. Given Rene’s cash-runway, and the concern many of us have about further dilution, what’s of interest is the timing of deals and their impact on cash. Given your inside knowledge we’d appreciate your informed view. Clearly quoting mid/end ‘23 is in one sense meaningless as the business without some facility would never sustainably get to zero. Thanks in anticipation.
Expecting an update on one of the Exosome collaborations soon. I hope the update involves of the two big boys that we have as partners. The hRPC data will be available for potential partners to view this month. Apparently quite a few companies had requested to be kept informed. Expect further buying of shares by Directors and staff, after news has been released.
https://www.allenbycapital.com/client/reneuron-plc/
Published today. The report gives Rene a valuation of £41m or 72p per share with some assumptions/caveats. This is 37% higher than their last report in July (different author though).
A bit of musical chairs but I am excited to see Simon Dew will be joining the Executive Team as Chief Business Officer ('CBO'). Particularly his
recent work at "exosomes company Evox Therapeutics, where he was responsible for leading two transformational partnership deals with global pharmaceutical companies."
He has the connections and a track record. Let's hope RENE have something the big boys like.
GLA
PS My shares remain stuck in their bottom drawer, but as Phil says their price may be attractive at this point. dyor
This share has been an almost continuous disappointment since I bought it back in the Neil Woodford disaster days. It did move from 50 to 300p in early 2019 on the back of positive preliminary data in US retinal trial, but we all know what has happened since then. But it is a fact that positive news can go a long way with RENE
Thanks, hopefully my timing is good. Been watching the charts for a while and it has retested previous lows a few times and looks like it could be breaking out on the 6 month chart, so we'll see.
Director buys are always going to attract interest, so might be enough to give us some momentum after what really has been a disappointing year so far. Plenty of potential bits of news in the pipeline, so we live in hope.
Well done Phil. The term topping up has frequently been used by others on this board to reflect literally handfuls of shares bought. Nice to see a contributor significantly backing the business with a 50k purchase. I wish you well. My last purchase of this scale was when the sp was sadly much greater than thirty cents, but c’est la vie! Good luck.
The 52k share one was mine, buying in anticipation. . .
A few buys coming in, Is Iain at it again?
From memory, I think Iain invested about £250K of his own money in buying silence therapeutics shares, so I am pretty confident he will invest a decent amount in Rene. He will need to get a move on as the closed period will kick in, in a few weeks, as we are due news on several fronts. I am expecting quite a few RNS's before the end of December.
I’d like to hope so - 27k is bugger all for something you “believe in” - Not enough of a message yet. I’ll eagerly await future purchases
Fairly illiquid tbf
Iain has only just started, just watch and see him load up. I won't be surprised if he purchases between 500K and a million shares. He will have to split them up into several trades.
Nice to see that the BOD are at last buying shares in the company. Now we know who the 30K and 60k buys were yesterday .
We are seeing a slight rise today hope it holds
Iain Ross purchased 100k shares - £27k worth
Thanks Phil. Catherine’s strategic reset is of course defined and driven by the reality of a lack of cash to continue clinical trials of legacy assets. Assets that Thomason, perhaps understandably, puts little value on. In this last throw of the dice sorry strategic realignment or reset we’re dependent on the nascent potential of pre-clinical research, to hopefully play some part in stretching the cash runway into 2024. Sadly for those of us who are way under water a Thomason valuation of a buck/share is possibly less attractive than to those Board members who recently bought in and who at that sort of price could wash their face in a sale. Nevertheless it seems Rene and Catherine will keep our attention for a while longer; I wish her and us well.
Very good article , thanks for posting .