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With the greatest of respect obs, this is where I have a different view given what Goldman Sachs has stated. Brazilian iron ore is coming to market and for this reason SUPPLY is increasing = $$ price has to come down.
I think that area best be left to the time when things have settled down and one can see one*s way clearly.
However, for now, IF THE JV goes to 50kt per Secker in the Crux Investor video, 3 wks ago, it means that it has to reach the JV lands?
That is also another day.
eyeguy has run to another lithium project in Mali. It has 21Mt of lithium. The Zimbabwe lithium project that DL once adviced is also 21Mt of lithium. Next door to this said lithium project is another one that is RANKED NO 9 from recall or 10. They are going to SPIN out this lithium project into ANOTHER ASX co as INVESTORS ARE VERY KEEN ON PURE LITHIUM CO*S , not mixed with gold etc.
SUFFICE TO SAY, BCN NO WONDER CANNOT COMMAND A HIGH MKT CAP? How can it? It NOT ONLY NO LONGER HOLDS 100% OF VENTANA [88% to be mined] but BY EXTENSION GAVE AWAY THE NEXT STAGE 2 LICENCE AWAY FOR US$50M+ IE 50% TO THE JV PARTNER.
All those that hold 100% of their LITHIUM DEPOSIT LIKE THACKER PASS, RANKED NO 2 AFTER SONORA [BCN] AT NO 1, have a MKT CAP OF $2BN + [2 projects]. Thacker Pass, No 2 ranked has only got a KEY permit but NOT ALL PERMITS which means that it is not 100% DE-RISKED YET in Nevada. Plus Lithium americas has just raised $400m which may not be enough for the rest of the project as its usually just for the initial part of capex.
My WORD!!! What can I say???!!!
What a bluXXder!! What a DISASTER!!? NO WONDER WHY BCN FOLKS ARE HOLDING THEIR HEADS IN THEIR HANDS!!! THEY ARE TRYING TO LOOK FOR ANSWERS AND LOOKING EVERYWHERE. Oh my.
News, what’s the saying,’ you throw a sprat to catch a mackerel’ ;) I’m very glad I’m in REM ...
Hello @news. Indeed, the market isn't getting just how valuable Sonora could be to KDNC. My view is that if we pull off Amapa to become a £100m+ company in which the market once again has faith in the BoD, we can then finance our various Lithium projects to become £200m+ and beyond. :-)))
I also figured out the DL, REM Founder and Chairman was smart to take 30% JV of the greater licence area in Sonora, RANKED NO 1 IN THE WORLD FOR LITHIUM.
That is the bigger part. He let them do the financing etc for their part 1. THEREAFTER, BCN-REM LICENCE AREA IS DE-RISKED and has a PRICE DISCOVERY factor to it + proven after a lithium plant is set up.
Well, Bolivia- they are so desperate until a over-throw event -just for the lithium per the news report, how much more for SONORA?
NO WONDER THACKER PASS IS NOT GOING TO JV-LITHIUM AMERICAS*S HOLDS 100% AND WALL STREET IS THROWING MONEY AT THEM. PIEDMONT IS ALSO RAISING TELEPHONE NO*S.
THE MKT CAPS ARE INTO TELEPHONE NO*S.
Poor folks over at ...they are asking why is the mkt cap this and that for such a big deposit?
Ding dong.
Ah, yeah cos Ganfeng NOW own 50% of Sonora BCN.
And by EXTENSION, it means that the NEXT JV LAND [BCN-REM] is now 35% REM, 35% BCN & 35% GANFANG.
Oh, dear me!!!
= AS I SAID IT WENT CHEEEEEP!???
CHECK-MATE!
I need to sit down.
BARKSY1 said its NOT going cheeepp-- but BCN sold theirs CHEEP from your link and info???
Oh my.
Yes, I did figure that out ie the UNSHADED PART is NOT or not covered by any study. It was obvious.
OK, ITS BIG.
THE MEXICAN GOVT IS GOING GA GA OVER LITHIUM as they want to be a SUPER-STATE IN LITHIUM MINING.
So, Ganfeng or whoever LITHIUM JV PART [BCN-REM] GOES TO WILL HAVE TO TECHNICALLY BY RIGHT PAY NOT JUST 1 LUMP SUM LIKE US$50M FOR THE WHOLE LICENCE BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO PAY FOR 19 YEAR MINE LIFE x Y?
Anyhow, I am wondering if KDNC is going to let this LITHIUM BOOM PASS THEM BY?
Cos its ALLLLLL S I L E N T on lithium?
Litchfield-no sound?
MrC doesnt want to talk of REM but the BCN PRESENTATION you gave a link to does not ACKNOWLEDGE KDNC but REM plc which is DL*s work.
Hello @news. I'm not sure if you are aware of this, but other than the grey area (which is 50% BCN and 50% Ganfeng), all other areas in the region are now 30% KDNC, 35% BCN, 35% Ganfeng. i.e. the blueish green and the unshaded area.
https://www.bacanoralithium.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/BCN-Annual-Report-2020.pdf
Page 80.
Megalit is the unshaded region.
Hello @news. I'm fairly certain the 8.8Mt (which refers to the 250 years) of resources is contained within the blueish green and grey area. The unshaded area has not yet got a resource definition. See the link to the FS in my 20:01 post.
Just looked.
20kt to 50kt is 3 TIMES?
I have now figured it out for myself.
The blueish green part: BCN - R E M stated 50 years.
The unshaded part is not yet marked out-this will be 250years minus 19yrs [BCN/GANFEND], minus 50 years.
So, possibly, the next JV will be for the shaded part ie 50 year BCN-REM.
Interesting that the CONTRACT AGREEMENT WAS WITH R E M plc with evidence.
So, that will have to go next if there is ever a JV in the future as the FIRST part to develop.
News, Wed, 24 Mar 2021.
Yup, clear to me. So, not ALL 1 BIG CHUNK.
Hello @news.
I believe the 50 years refers to the 1,666kt of proven reserve. The first 19 years use 603kt of this reserve. Take a look at the feasibility report for the details.
https://www.bacanoralithium.com/pdfs/Bacanora-FS-Technical-Report-25-01-2018.pdf
Page 127 and 138.
Did you see my post on KDNC.PL@Mon 21:05, that contains my best estimate of value to KDNC under various expansion scenarios. It's based on my understanding of the Feasibility Study.
Ob.
P.S.
For clarity, I have just seen that the SHADED BLUEISH GREEN PART IE BCN -REM IS FOR 50 YEARS.
It does not give the no of years for the UNSHADED PART which is ALSO BCN-REM LICENCE AREA but it says 250 years in the earlier presentation from BCN.
24.3.21 [Wed]
LOL - Page 10 Key said: "BCN - R E M."
That is the blueish green shaded part.
Yes, I could clue that the UNSHADED PART is also BCN-REM as it shows the licence lines.
IT SAYS 100,000 HECTARES. That*s MORE like it, NOT JUST 7KM.
I ALSO SEE 250 YEARS - LIFE.
QUESTION:
HOW CAN THE NEXT JV [IF] PAY THE SAME US25M + $25M FOR 50% on the JV LANDS GIVEN IT IS N O T GOING TO JUST LAST 19 YEAR BUT 231 YEARS [250 minus 19]?
So, logic says that it will have to go 19+19+19+19 AND SO FORTH UNTIL IT REACHES 231 YEARS - HOW MANY PLANTS IS THAT GOING TO BE?
HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE?
NO ONE CAN LIFE ANOTHER 231 YEARS and even that one has to WAIT 8 YEARS INTO STAGE 1 PRODUCTION AT BCN*s GANFENG JV?
Still NO ANSWER?
Thanks. Rec.
Wed, 24 Mar 2021.
By the way, KDNC*s Litchfield may not have been owned by Core. The Basin may be outside Finnis project which means a different part to the Basin.
Hello @news. It's worth taking a read of the BCN corporate presentation:
Page 10:
https://www.bacanoralithium.com/pdfs/Bacanora-Company-Presentation-March-2021.pdf
The grey is 100% BCN/Ganfeng, the green is 30% KDNC, 70% BCN/Ganfeng.
The 250 years refers to the these colours at a mining rate of 35ktpa where there is a defined resource (measure + indicated + inferred) of 8.8Mt LCE: 1.5kt attributable to KDNC:
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/
Plenty of upside as the strike extends into the unshaded region which is also 30% KDNC :-)
I hope that helps with your understanding,
Ob.
So, post David Lenigas, is KDNC still interested in LITHIUM or is that now on the back burner?
There is Litchfield, Northern Territories, Australia and Core Lithium is looking to invest nearby but no sound from KDNC-REM even though they are next door.
Kiran Mozaria, CEO, KDNC-REM in his latest interview said, we dont make much of it.
How sophisticated an answer. I take it to mean we dont boast about it or shout from the roof tops. That is THE project now in Australia as THE NEXT LITHIUM PRODUCER in Oz : LOWEST COST, LOWEST CAPEX, HIGHEST GRADE IN AUSTRALIA, CLOSE TO PORT AND BOUND FOR ASIA.
Capex - A$50 or A$80m from recall, a ridiculously cheap price. Most lithium projects, even cheapest is US$400m + and for bigger plants, one is talking $1b+.
So, its not PRICE SENSITIVE TO ASK IF THE STRATEGY IS STILL LITHIUM which DL, the Founder set on as a strategy.
I was reading about AOU [KDNC used to own a %] - they had a copper or nickel strike in Australia. I have not checked up yet but I saw the headline from on Twitter.
24.3.21 [Wed]
@observer842
So, you think that 7km of contigious lithium [per NI43-101] will last for 250 years or 231 years [JV part] of Sonora??
The 250 years for Sonora lithium has been plastered EVERYWHERE but it is NOT elucidated by BCN as to how this is or what is the component of this STRIKE?
By way of a lithmus TEST, THACKER PASS, RANKED NO 2 [Nevada owned 100% by Lithium Americas] will ONLY LAST 46 YEARS at a lower MT , below Sonora.
SO, THIS IS THE MYSTERY - SECKER*S INTERVIEW 3 WKS AGO WITH CRUX INESTORS did not ENLIGHTEN further on this or WHERE the next production/S is going to take place.
The point is, IF when it comes to the JV lands at Sonora and a potential JV partner were to PAY JUST FOR another 19 years, then KDNC -REM could be waiting FOREVER? OR WORSE STILL, THE NEXT POTENTIAL JV ON THE KDNC-REM 30% LAND IS TAKEN FOR THE WHOLE PART I R R E S P E C T I V E of the 231 YEARS!!!!
On BCN, they are also asking and even via investigations, NO ONE ANSWERS.
Apparently, from the article I have read, the MEXICAN GOVT IS DEAD KEEN ON THE LITHIUM RESOURCES , so much so they are worried about the cartels [gangs].
Secker said in the article that he will use CIVIL SECURITY GUARDS NOT SOLIDERS. Soliders? My that sounds serious - govt must have proposed that to Secker?
Bolivia- I cant give the title as its too...um but suffice to say its over-throw for the lithium?
See, everyone is chasing lithium.
Secker said that if co*s are not into lithium in 2021, they will NOT BE READY then.
Pity they didnt go alone or else their BCN mkt cap could be like LITHIUM AMERICA*S @$2BN +, 2 projects ie Cauhari, Argentine and Thacker Pass which will go into production in 2024. I believe Thacker Pass has just got a KEY permit but not ALL PERMITS and have just raised $400m initial money recently. Even then, to buy ROYALTY AT THACKER PASS COST A UK AIM CO £16M. Royalties are usually 2.5%.
Hmmm!
News, Wed 24 Mar 2021.
Hello @news. I thought you might like to know the article is referring to the size of the Sonora state, not the Sonora project which is 1.4x the size of England. It's a good article. Thanks for sharing!
Not sure about other people but it would stun any normal person to read in so many reports that they are fighting over Bolivia*s lithium, even an over-throw as being reported?
So, how much more is SONORA not relevant to lithium given it is RANKED NO 1 in the world and can "COMPETE WITH ENTIRE COUNTRIES."?
So, no wonder that investors are chasing LITHIUM investments these days.
Wed, 24 Mar 2021.
News.
Ref: "Why you should not expect any white gold rush in the wake of Morales over-throw."
-15.11.19.
The article is about lithium ie white gold and it said that Morales flew into Mexico. It was said that Bolivia*s has the "BIGGEST LITHIUM RESOURCE GLOBALLY [USGS] and that lithium eq is 21.1 Mt. It was also reported in this article that Bolivia is "in no hurry to develop the country*s resources."
So, to date, there is still no news on the lithium resource but there is an outstanding German legal case given they were told they could participate?
Anyhow, an overthrow due to lithium is what is reported in many articles?
SONORA LITHIUM, MEXICO
No 1 ranked at 243.8 Mt = 4.5m.
Drilled and financed by REM plc although BCN owned it initially but later transpired to a JV for Part 2 of the lands at 30% for REM.
In my post below, it was said that "SONORA RESERVES COULD COMPETE WITH ENTIRE C O U N T R I E S." Hence, why I brought in the info about Bolivia and how their lithium is being "FAUGHT OVER" [mildly put]??
Coming to the NI43-101, BCN said the STRIKE is 7KM of contiguous lithium.
I stated that Lithium Americas*s THACKER PASS IS RANKED NO 2 but has far less than Sonora and even then it will only last 46 YEARS.
So, either Sonora is of slightly HIGHER GRADE or THE DEPOSIT IS SO LARGE DUE TO THE ACREAGE. So, I am wondering how 7KM CAN PRODUCE 250 YEARS OF MINING which BCN quoted or told many pubications.
So, one does wonder if it means that SONORA where REM HAS THE JV IS REALLY HUGE [whole acreage?] THUS IT CAN PRODUCE 250 years minus 19 years [ cos Part 1 BCN/GANFENG JV for Ventana which they own 100% but will contribute 88% of mine ore feed for 19 years] = 231 YEARS OF LITHIUM ?
I cant think that 7km can produce 250 years of lithium looking at my post below that SONORA IS 1.4 TIMES THE SIZE OF ENGLAND. Well, England is not 7km by any means. Sonora is not only the size of England but 1.4 times. THAT IS HUGE.
The 250 years that BCN [Bacanora Minerals] told or intimated to publications - please check.
BCN has never elucidate further and it is of importance to the REM JV @30% for the rest of SONORA bar Ventana, Sonora which BCN owns 100%.
Ventana itself contributing 88% of the BCN/GANFENG JV WITH 19 YEARS OF LITHIUM IS NOTHING COMPARED TO 231 YEARS AS REPORTED I F C O R R E C T.
For completeness, Ganfeng paid some US$25m x 2 for 50% [total some US$50m] share of Sonora Ventana [BCN now only owns 50%]?
Just info. Please check.
News, Wed 24 Jan 2021.
SONORA:
"HIT THE JACKPOT.
Reserves 10 times.
Sonora reserves-CAN COMPETE WITH ENTIRE COUNTRIES.
1.4X THE SIZE OF ENGLAND.
250 years ."
From E&T 22.9.20
From a Secker interview on BCN and Sonora Lithium.
Posting for archive history.
@observer842
It is Sunday.
I thought further & think it was best we discontinued discussion unless we can meet at a point of goodwill ie mutual benefit when discussing REM plc. I think the chapter is NOW CLOSED on REM plc with a lot of positives. This relates to the LEGACY LITHIUM assets at Sonora [Bacanora Minerals] & Cinovec [European Metals] which David Lenigas invested in.
Given the standing of SONORA LITHIUM in the world rankings, I am pleased to see that Mr Lenigas has good standing in the investment community and he is able to move forward with the COO of a New York Fund as a fellow Director in one of his co*s. Premier African Minerals is now seeking investment financing via this fund. And so forth...
I have been only interested in LITHIUM in recent times given what has now transpired in this space. However, this sector is also complex as with all commodities in the green metals . This relates to price.
I have never invested in IRON ORE and therefore, I am not interested in this space which is the new direction of KDNC, the new name for REM, post Mr Lenigas. There is a lot of insight one needs and I have now tracked down further info that helps to unlock this iron ore mkt in general [NOT in relation to KDNC].
Unfortunately, we have been UNABLE to meet on COMMON GROUND and maybe we have a different outlook and a different background.
Suffice to say, I have goodwill towards all legacy holders of REM and hope that they will recover their capital at 1p or 0.9p [old money per 2 posts I read]. At 2.25p intra-day high or high, Dallasdaz said the mkt cap then was £95m.
Today, KDNC is 18.625p [mid] with a mkt cap of £28m per London Sth East, Fri, 19 Mar 2021.
So, I take my leave with thanks.
News, Sun 21 Mar 2021 @3:25pm.
Apologies @news. Message received and hopefully understood.
EMH [Investee co of REM plc]
On Fri, 19 Mar 2021, shares traded : 116 deals.
Shares sold: 67,025 at £68,030.
Shares bought: 52,223 at £53,010.
Shares in Issue: 175m
Market Cap: £ 1 7 8 million
52 wk high £1.025 ."
Info from London South East [free], Sun 21 Mar 2021.
---
That shows that it would not be possible for KDNC on Fri, 19 Mar 2021 to sell 10%+ of their stake into the market given the above ie would not be able to absorb some £17.8m worth of stock even if 10% for easy calculation. Therefore, it would be reasonable to think that it would need to be negotiated with the market how to best manage any sale.
One could get the normal average volume in the past but that is not available unless one checks further.a
From experience, one is aware that constantly selling chunks appears to work not to one*s advance given most stockbroking accounts are automated share dealing with a normal mkt size at x price and thereafter, negotiated price. This relates to ordinary folks who do not have access to DMA [direct market access]. I gather not all stocks have DMA access especially if they are tiny mkt caps as its unsuitable.
Just sayin - no sense in trying to do DIY market-to-market to the last % as that is NOT the real price if one is taking the ADVERTISED PRICE shown which is never LIVE PRICE. I note that live price changes very quickly and oft times the spread is not very tight or narrow.
For this reason, it will NOT make the market VALUE KDNC MORE if one tries to squeeze out the last decimal using just advertised prices which is NOT LIVE. For all one knows, there may be a sell order in place that is agreed to take place over many days as one can see from other co*s of funds selling?
Hope that clarifies matters. As I have often said, it is better to take a slightly lower price for safety - I do that for my own personal circumstances. Say, on Thur night, I think I want to sell some shares to realise a modest sum, I do not go to the account to look at the value shown as that is NOT accurate.
Come, Fri, morning at 8am [mkt opens] SAY, I still have to do LIVE PRICE [DUMMY TRADE] to check. If at 8am, the market wants X no of shares, it does not mean that it is so at 10.30am.
From experience, I notice that at different times of the day, the normal mkt size may or may not be offered in the case of a sale. If not, then one has to wait and usually, it means taking a lower price.
That is the real world in practice, so NO point in taking Thur*s nights closing price and saying yeah, I will have £ on Fri when I come to sell. REAL LIFE IS NOT LIKE THAT.
ILLUSTRATES WHY NO NEED FOR LAST DECIMALS AS IT WILL STILL NOT BE LIVE OR STILL ACCURATE DOWN THE LINE. It is BEYOND THE SCOPE OF ORDINARY INVESTORS TO TRY TO MICRO MANAGE KDNC*S CURRENT FINANCIALS IN THAT ONE WANTS TO KNOW SAY, DO YOU HAVE AN ORDER OUT OR ARE YOU SELLING DOWN TO 10% OR 10.02% KINDA THING.
So, what is the point of correcting to the last decimal
P.S.
I provide PROOF why it is NOT critical.
FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT:
1] If one says that EMH - at 9% or IF 10% = £x and £ y, it is clearly understood that it is not taken from the up to the minute RNS and if anyone is really interested, they would need to check.
2] The reference per point 1 refers to a historical past of "REM USED TO OWN 20%" which is so many years ago.
3] The point 1 makes NO REFERENCE to CURRENT CADENCE MINERALS [KDNC, new name for REM plc] MKT CAP.
So, it is NOT comparing 9% OR IF 10% OF EMH VS KDNC MKT CAP of Wed, 17 Mar 2021.
So, it is UNNECESSARY TO CORRECT THAT IN FACT EMH STAKE IS 10+% to the last decimal. If one is really doing MARK-TO-MARKET, one may need to the last decimal if it is for official reasons eg enter into stats etc.
So, to CORRECT MY POST to say that it should have been 10%+ and NOT 10% ILLUSTRATES that CORRECTION was not at all necessary.
FOR THE AVOIDANCE OF DOUBT: IF 10% OR [10%+ PER CORRECTION] HAS NO RELEVANCE TO KDNC ON 17 MAR 2021 AS ----IT WAS NOT USED TO DO A MARK-TO-MARKET VALUATION FOR THE DAY @ 17 MAR 2021.----
One sees in own*s broking account the value in the summary but that is NOT ACCURATE to the very minute and that is made known from some caveats in accounts?
So, if one wants to know, one has to do a DUMMY LIVE PRICE - just type the NO OF SHARES into the box and PRESS SELL. The figure will show deduction for commission etc and the FINAL PRICE THAT WILL BE PAID NET.
For Mark-To-Market, it also means that the KDNC would be able to know the value of its portfolio if they carry out a day-to-day valuation as an example if they so chose to do so.
So, in this case, the FINAL DECIMAL POINT IS NEEDED. Even then, it depends on whether the market can absorb so many shares at one go IF there is no DMA [direct market access].
So, for practical purposes to just see a rough guide, one could take the ROUND %.
Why? To take to the LAST DECIMAL MEANS THAT IT CAN BE ACTUALLY SOLD AT THAT PRICE WHICH IS IMPOSSIBLE - the market does not look to have that type of VOLUME daily to absorb 10%+ in 1 day.
SUMMARY:
So, there was NO NEED FOR THE EMH CORRECTION - IT WAS NOT USED IN CONTEXT TO CONDUCT AN OFFICIAL MARK-TO-MARKET NOR USED TO SEE THE EMH 9% OR IF 10% VS CURRENT KDNC MKT CAP.
No one can do an official mark-to-market except KDNC - they have the mandate and remit if they chose to do so for purposes of valuation. They would need to contact the market to see how it would be best obtained ie how it is to be staggered and at what price.
For this reason, ordinary folks would find it hard to sell big chunks of shares in tiny AIM markets as often it is somewhat illiquid especially if the market cap is small.
I do NOT have any STATS with me - that is up to everyone to check if any co can sell 10% at 1 go at X price, not just take the advert price rather than LIVE quote.
So, I end here on the topic of REM plc.
What I have learnt from checking the past vs current lithium reality ie demand is of benefit to me to understand commodity cycles and how to best manage if possible.
David Lenigas - whatever he says, I take the big picture. I have NOT followed into the other ventures nor do I just jump in without deep diving into the sector etc. This is just in case folks think that I am saying this or that. Suffice to say that Bacanora Lithium at some £145m mkt cap and EMH at some £175m mkt cap today [as in this time] has come in on Lenigas*s prognosis as these 2 are his legacy investments as said.
As I have stated before, the CORRECTION is NOT CRITICAL and I have CAVEATED IT SUFFICIENTLY. It is of PAST EVENTS IE HISTORY.
News, 21 Mar 2021.
I meant to post a short post but had to post a much longer one than I intended to CLARIFY given there is a posting to correct my post which was COVERED with adequate qualification/s.
My post has frozen so many times that I have taken ages to post - pardon typos as I cant correct or proof read. I am waiting ages as it says "...." not responsive.
As I have said on KDNC.pl try correctly OTHERS so that it indicates its not personal?
Just sayin. I am now followed to a DEAD SITE and again to be corrected on my post on a minor point - from CONTEXT IT IS OBVIOUS TO ANY REASONABLE PERSON THAT IF I QUOTE 9 OR 10% KINDA OF THING, IT M E A N S THAT I DO NOT HAVE THE EXACT FIGURE ON HAND. It is then encumbant to the reader if they can find this site to CHECK FOR THEMSELVES IF IT MATTERS TO THEM ie invested and want the up to the minute last decimal kinda thing.
For this reason, I am AVOIDING