Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Hi. I wouldn't call 220 & days temporary myself. All's I've heard is when it's over , but it's showing zero signs of abating.
Pokerc, like Brazil?
Char333
I think the consensus is that nothing "too much" will change until the US Q2 ..i.e after the main northern hemisphere winter , when growth "should" return and recovery begin in earnest... before then currently it is in the hands of the gods due to the US election, COVID,winter ..so Q1 2021 should see the speculation and hopes rise for the new year ahead ....whether it is Biden or Trump both have big challenges ahead of them and I don't think Biden would have much of a honeymoon settle in...his team would have to hit the floor running...
the US forthcoming stimulus will boost economic activity and I suspect that "maybe" the aim is to decide and get it out there before Thanks giving ( and for Trump to claim it as his Christmas gift !!)
The share price I think will respond to the derivative market, as that is where it often gets its lead....the move away from oil Put Options to oil Call Options would signal a more positive near future...somewhere to keep a clear eye on
At the moment I dare say we still have bearish Put Options which of course the Saudi oil minister has put them on watch ..he wants to catch them out...
We are searching for a market low at the moment from which to profit from in the new trading cycle which will obviously have its top limitations for now
The interesting thing to note is that in the southern hemisphere
" Many countries in the southern half of the globe have instead experienced either record low levels of flu or none at all, public health specialists in Australia, New Zealand and South America have said, sparing potentially tens of thousands of lives and offering a glimmer of hope as winter approaches in the northern hemisphere."
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/17/falling-flu-rates-in-southern-hemisphere-offers-hope-as-winter-approaches-coronavirus
30th Nov-01 Dec is the OPEC meeting and no doubt Russia will decide its winter oil production level (they cant change it "during" the cold winter and cant have it turned down too much due to the need for the flow in extreme cold areas)
char333,
Re your questions:
#1 No vaccine
#2 Still a huge number of cases
#3 Still a lot of deaths.
#4 No Brexit, well there never will be.
#5 Ongoing tensions within oil producers, Russia , Saudi, OPEC, etc .
#6 Trump v China
#7 Trump v everyone who stands up to him
#8 Still huge macro problems in oil, especially in USA.
The present position:
#1, #2 and #3 are temporary.
#4 Brexit has taken place. The ? Is no deal.
#5 This is the case
#6 and #7 Wait until 3rd November and see....
#8 This is the case.
With respect, you've come to the same conclusion as poker chips highlighted 4 months ago. But in a more in-depth way. But your summary is the same.
1, no vaccine
2, still huge number of cases
3, still alot of deaths. 4, no Brexit, well there never will be.
4,. Ongoing tentions within oil producers, Russia , Saudi, OPEC, etc .
5, trump v China
6, trump v everyone who stands up to him
7, still huge macro problems in oil, especially in USA.
So we're exactly where we we're b4. I recall saying about 2 months ago that I'd be happy for the share price to remain where it was, about £11 40, which to some seemed negative. Don't seem that way now with the steady decline down. People can analyze the fundentals till the cows come home, but to me it's black & white. It's a bloody long way back & things still look bleak. I must say people are under an misapprehension regarding my dislike for RDS. No true. You can't blame shell for any of the problems above in my list. Up till the last year RDS had always served me well off & on for 20 years. Very good company, but facing huge issues not if their making.
So we seem to have a broad consensus here:
1)Although at historically low levels, RDS isn’t performing much differently to other O&G companies.
2)They are all having a dreadful time - along with many sectors
3)Recovery for all of them will depend on global issues beyond their control, with the extent and timing uncertain.
4)Individuals are entitled to express their views here without being harassed.
5)Mischievous analysis and criticism of posts on this forum by non-investors is tolerated but not especially welcome.
I think this straightforward and factual picture summarises RDS’ relative performance in the sector: https://invst.ly/siloo
For those who might need some explanation re the chart:
It shows RDS (daily candles) against daily closing prices for Chevron, Exxon, BP and Brent rebased to 8th June (the 9th was a critical date, for some reason, as there was a sudden fall in all five and, despite subsequent stabilisation of OP, it marked the start of a general and sustained decline of major oil co sp’s. The re-base point is after BP and RDS reduced dividends, so eliminates the differential that this caused between them and the two US companies. Please ask me if there's some additional information you'd like me to add to it.