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I might not always like it but to me everything has Its season just like in fashion including Oil & Gas, for example we all know that oil producers pump more in the summer even when power generation needs are low because consumption is high due to people traveling for holidays (by plane or car) or to see families and friends in the country and vice versa in the winter. To me oil and RDS for medium to long term is upward from last year’s low, but even in a definite momentum to the upwards/downwards there will be what I call intermediate rallies and reactions to the opposite of the main momentum, that’s why stock price behaviour is so important to me. That’s excluding any major shocks like last year at the start of the pandemic or any unknowns in the future.
So to understand the price direction I have my own indicators or pointers to tell me where the stock price wants to go and I just watch the price movements behaviour, i don’t predict where it will go as much I would want to because I truly believe that you should stick to what works for you and learn to improve it.
Like my previous posts the following are my own indicators to the Downside based on the recent higher high 1801.40 made on 20/10/2021 and last year’s Lower Low 866.40 made on 28/10/2020, and also are the closing prices simplicity.
1 - 1665
2 - 1581
3 - 1444
To me the above targets are still what I would term normal reactions and so far the recent low 1556.40 made on 26/11/2021 is below the second target but not much by my term so I’m closely watching it atm, but if it closes say 1530 or below then I will be watching how close it gets to the third target or if it reverses b4 that.So let’s see what the follow-ups hold.
I hope it doesn’t go this far below but if it does that then I’ll be watching next:-
1 - 1334 which is 50% of the rally from the Low 866.40 to the high 1801.40 (my own warning sign), then
2 - 1283.60 summer Low made on 28/05/2021 from the high 1518 made on 12/02/2021 which is above the previous low 1159.94 made on 12/03/2003 from the High 2218.93 made on 12/06/2001 (my own danger sign for my avg 14.08 to cut the losses short).
Please note that these are my own price targets, pointers and guides of Price movement and not advice or predictions of what will be. IMHO GLA DYOR
Looking at tonight's Brent price of $72, I'm anticipating around 1550 tomorrow for RDSb, which would be fine from my buy-back perspective. https://invst.ly/wxinc (chart is up to Friday's 16.30 close, so weekend fall in Brent is not shown)
Not exactly a Head Fake but, nonetheless, RDS moved back up rather swiftly after opening at 1544 - I had to move smartly to buy back my 1680+ sale at a good price. The bounce was quite possibly due to re-investment of today's dividend payment by some investors- for once it may not have been a bad day to do it, although it may well slip back again over coming days, especially if Brent continues to slide. I'm now 'equal weight' - so not in a hurry to add more unless there's a very convincing trading opportunity. https://invst.ly/wxtid .
There seems to be good support around 1545, although today's bounce may have exaggerated the strength of it.