Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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Three businesses, legal, corporate finance and litigation funding. First should generate steady £2-3m net profit, second a more variable £3m-£4m and third is an open question with VC style bets. £5-7m net income is worth £50-70m market cap with litigation funding on top. The latter has a potential £25m (half of current market cap) payout on one case according to Simon Thompson’s piece from last summer. So you’re looking at a business that is realistically worth £70-100m in my opinion which is 60-100% more than the current market cap with the opportunity for special dividends from litigation funding.
swimming under the radar here, I know Robbie Burns bought and sold here last year, wouldn't surprise me if he's bought again at the lows
As expected Robbie Burns bought in:
"I bought some RBG Holdings (RBGP). A risky idea as it is due to report any day and the shares have been sitting unhappily down for some time after a lacklustre report last time, but, with a very low PE and a small debt I wonder if downside is now in the price? I was tempted in as the shares seemingly were rising off quite a firm bottom. It didn't like lockdown and it mentioned the "impact" of that on one of its businesses. Still, the market looks ahead and given it is near lows a steady as she goes statement could see the shares lift. I just hope the buyers know something rather than me who knows nothing. So risky but on this low rating could be rewarding. If there is a profit warning then you can have a good laugh at my expense. It is quite liquid for a smallcap but given the risk more of a toe in for me."
The Naked Trder avoids shares about to give trade updates - that's his way to play.
As mentioned - Rosenblatt 's biz should be flying - check out cross reads to GTLY , KEYS
Convex - entrepreneurs fretting over capital gain potential changes by Rishi this Spring, are selling off their biz asap - cross read to K3C
Lionfish - check out RBGP's previous RNS's
So far my SP prediction playing out - would have been even better had it not been last few days of risk-off / selling down
Law firm performed well (as per quoted comparables) but Convex is clearly a dead duck. Staff not being paid. Have seen this before, they will all leave as soon as market improves. LionFish - RBGP have been saying they are doing litigation funding since the IPO in 2018, so 7 cases in a year is very weak. They obviously don’t have the capital base to play a role in that sector. If they just focused on being a law firm this might become attractive as sp still far below IPO price.
Not true to say Convex staff not being paid. Earn out arrangements for senior management have been changed to reflect the reality of covid impact on m&a, seems fair. We know the law firm is doing well, and the Lionfish business is developing.
Not how I read the RNS but maybe you know more. Do you work for the company ?
Are you a paid deramper? You seem to have an agenda against the company and have history of attempting to miscomprehend and spin communications negatively. If I were you I'd concentrate on MANO and try not think too much about any losses. You appear bitter and deluded
Aggressive little JammyC again ! As I said below I am looking at buying back in. The lockdown is getting to you love !
No I dont work for the company but have had dealings with in the past . I read "The Convex Capital senior management team have agreed for 2021 to exchange their fixed base salary arrangements for a flexible commission structure" and "This new commission scheme replaces the deferred consideration arrangements under the sale and purchase agreement with the Convex Capital sellers". Many may be staff too but it doesn't say staff not being paid, does it?
Hi Chris,
Yes it does seem to conflate two issues: pay and deferred consideration. I was impressed with the £525k fee and I think many of us are aware of the large amount of PE money looking to invest, so it would be very very good to see this element work of course becuase they did have a good track record it would appear. Just getting the motivation right will be crucial. Convex were independent before so they might like that structure if they dont feel loved. I have seen that in other people-buisnesses. Very hard to get it spot on. They have stuck together through a lot already it would be good to come out the otherside where there should be lots of opportunities. How long we are stuck in lockdown limbo though - who knows...Best of luck
Forensic505 - based on their prior presentations - the purpose of acquiring Convex was to acquire a cash generating machine and use the CF for Litigation Finance.
In addition, Convex, if I recall rightly, has averaged 8 deals p.a. Thus 2020 was a dud.
Perhaps , once normality resumes, Nicole's strategy may get back on track.
Good to see much banter hear. No one gave this stock the time of the day when it was at 56p. I knew that it was going to do well. But did not foresee the investor sentiment that has followed.
Hi Scooby,
I agree. I think Convex will come back. Smart cost management in the short term but just a matter of time before it comes back. Just heard the presentation. Looks like Litigation Funding now aimed at smaller end of the Commercial Litigation market. So not competing with BUR on the mega cases, more against firms like Augusta on the smaller/medium end (think she said £3-5m++). So a pure funding (rather than acquisition) of cases. Insolvency no longer the focus (one case against MANO 90 cases I think they said). All sensible my only concern is cash resources - you need deep pockets because these cases take time of course. But i like a lot the idea of bringing in their High Net Worths to co-invest. Law firm seems to be going great and adding lateral hires in growth areas is spot on. SP has done v well recently but value looks reasonable as i think i'm right in saying it is still below IPO price (?) Much to like but dyor of course.
Just listened to the call. A lot to like. Really like the CEO's focus on being commercial and she is very clear and transparent. Convex should bounce back this year and the upside from Litigation Funding (£120m or close to 2x current market cap) is free upside on the current valuation. I'm a happy holder as the downside is underwritten by RBL, there is an attractive dividend and potential significant upside potential on litigation funding realisations.
CVB: fully agree the openness and clarity of CEO and CFO was again very welcome. Not the first time I have said that re RBGP. I think we are all grown up enough to appreciate running any business is very difficult in these extraordinary times. So honesty is very welcome. GL.
I have to agree with you there Forensic. Very refreshing and good to see management who are transparent, appear conservative in their accounting, and are aligned with PI's. Nicky comes across as being particularly commercially savvy and owns 13.5% of the group. Ian Rossenblatt has just shy of 20% and Mike Driver, CEO of Convex, 2.7%.
I'm very pro and have a large holding so may be somewhat biased. For holders/potential new investors I see there is a great opportunity on Monday to see an appraisal/critique of the investment case here via Mello's BASH. I C&P what was posted on another forum and fully recommended the experience having signed up for a previous event:
Just to let shareholders know that we will be featuring RBG Holdings in the #MelloMonday show this coming Monday evening In the MelloBASH (Buy, Avoid, Sell or Hold) panel session. We have a very good panel of analysts and professional investors
Https://melloevents.com/mellomonday-8th-february-2021/
Tickets are still available and if you would like one at half price then enter the code MMTADVFN50
Here is the full programme as it is nearly a four hour show...
Programme
6 pm Mello News
6.10 pm Aquis Exchange PLC - AQSE: new opportunities
6.30 pm Interview with Sir* David Hornsby from Ideagen ... *If only Mello investors awarded knighthoods!?
7.00 pm Company presentation by Adept Technology Group
7.30 pm Trading update and meet the new CEO of SCS, Steve Carson
7.55 pm Gamechanger - Join us on Tuesday at 2 pm for a follow up and more in-depth presentation by our Gamechanger
8.15 pm Vectorvest - Low risk investing for consistent growth and income
8.45 pm Mello BASH, including Paul Scott, Alan Charlton, Kevin Taylor and Bruce Packard. Companies which may be analysed include Bank of Georgia (BGEO), Xpediator (XPD), RBG Holdings (RBGP)
Decided to sell my holding in RBGP today. I like the management and think upside from the Rosenblatt litigation funding remains but timing for the large cases is likely to be 2022 or 2023. LionFish is an interesting start-up but will take time and capital to scale. In the meantime, valuation has converged to the rest of the listed legal sector which wasn't the case when trading at 56p. I'm happy to bank my profits and should the company share price fall again due to market related weakness, I would look to re-enter sub 70p.