Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
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Do your own legwork, don't assume you know everything, that's not clever. Good luck.
I won't post again here.
I am assuming you aren't referring to Subex, if you are then you are clueless.
Regardless of whether you are or aren't, that is your only reason for your plethora of negative opinions. Brilliant
Look into the background of management then decide.
I agree with you that people should be careful with tips.
However, I think people should be more careful of people like you scaremongering with no evidence or support for your arguments other than "inklings" that the share price will go down. Just because you add DYOR to messages does not make them any more valid IMO.
I am intrigued to know why you think the SP will continue to decline?
Happy to hear the picture is rosier! I definitely agree with your original point that the amortisation which does play a key part of the P&L is somewhat disregarded by ST but I can see why.
Yes, will be interesting to see how fruitful the reward is from the Mobile Adevrtising. From the other core operations, the performance looks to be improving, with a few additional contract wins since 27/09 which is also good.
I agree regarding the exciting buy, my holding in PTRO is admittedly too heavy in proportion to my portfolio but I do genuinely believe there is serious value here.
Thanks for the info on the Cenkos report, I do not have access myself but may look at obtaining membership.
Cheers
For anyone noticing I only post negatively it's because the positives take care of themselves. There doesn't appear to be much trust here. For what you believe to be clear in the numbers the market says "meh".
Why?
Take some time and investigate. Dyor etc.
Careful following tips.
Hi TheAcc, you're absolutely right I've used accumulated amortisation from 30/06/21 not "for the period" - apologies!
So the picture is rosier - and I agree the revenue growth is what will drive this to PBT profitability (not just EBITDA profitable). My concern was/is that based on my (incorrect) numbers they were far away from achieving that!! Now I'm looking at a more realistic level I am rather relieved as I bought this based on ST recommendation and without doing my own due diligence!
I got the growth in administration costs from Cenkos whose numbers are FY2021 £2.6m cost and FY2022 £3.8m cost. This growth, in turn, I realised relates to the new "Mobile Advertising" service line announced June 2021. This £1.2m are the additional human being costs of operating this new service line and which are a fixed cost - so appear to fall under "Administrative" rather than S&M costs..... Odd, but at least I feel I understand the numbers now. The other point that I had failed to appreciate was that the mViva mobile advertising is a new service line.... going further back I realised that they are adding this in 2021 with a single Indian subsidiary of a European Telco (e.g. Vodafone?) to prove concept and that the revenues will follow and ramp in 2022 and beyond.
Looking at the update 27/09 they believe that the FY2021 revenues are already on target ($7.2m) and anticipating $9m revenue in FY2022. Of that about $2.5m is recurring revenue; so the remainder is$6.5m for 2022 and they have a pipeline of $18m of opportunities as at end September 21.... including expansion to non-telecom customers - ad agencies, banks and so on.
I can now see how that the "worsening" PBT for 2022 of -$1.1m is an investment.... and it could be zero in FY2022 if their revenue surprises by around 11% to the upside.... And worst case with further growth FY2023 should be PBT profitable. Once it's on a track to PBT profitable, low ARR multiples make this an exciting buy, in my opinion.
NB My numbers came from Cenkos and I got those from research-tree dot com. (sorry I can't share a direct link as they don't allow)
The key point ST makes is that the cost base is relatively fixed so the strong increases in revenue highlight the potential growth in the future.
Please may I ask where you got the 50% increase in administrative costs from? Link or something as I am interested to see this
Hi Agri,
Not sure where you are getting £6m of amortisation per year from? Thats the acc. amortisation as at 30/06/21 but the pro-rated amortisation for FY21 is £2m per annum. This appears to be consistent with previous periods. I note that a third of this is in relation to the acquisition intangibles (customer relationships) and therefore not sure why you would consider that in your valuation (not in a rude way, more curious)? There is no cash element to it at all.
The chunkier element of the amortisation is in relation to the development costs, but there does not appear to be any significant increase in comparison to previous periods. The additions each year are relatively consistent and are being amortised over 4 years like you said, so it is essentially a rolling expense. These development costs wont be brought down to zero as it is a "rolling" value?
In summary, I do not consider this element of the amortisation to change significantly in the near future but I expect the customer relationships to be reduced to zero by 2028 and therefore would improve the bottom line basis. As I said above, I consider this element to be irrelevant though and think it is correct not to use the bottom line?
Not sure what you mean by "how do they determine amortisation"?
Hope that maybe helps but quite possibly not!!
Its an avoid. Well done!
I've been trying to get my head around the fact that EBIT is estimated negative for 2021 and the (Cenkos) 2022 outlook is for another year of (worse) negative EBIT. ST doesn't explore this in his articles, and I can't see anything discussed here either.
From what I can see there's a £18m mix of past development costs and a nebulous "customer relationship" intangible and £400k of "normal" goodwill under the intangibles. There's additions in H1 2021 of £1.4m and amortisation of around £6m per year. This is where the negative is coming from..... and if these numbers are typical (and flat rate) then there's around 4 years of amortisation to bring that to zero. (If that's the amortisation policy?)
What's worse is that even though there's an estimated 20% revenue increase for 2022 but higher estimated administration costs (up 50%?) and higher amortisation means the EBIT is worse next year!!
I get that they are capitalising development (and presumably S&M costs?) rather than treating it as COS and we are now effectively "paying" for flattered P&Ls from earlier years. And I get that that is typical for this sort of business. I just find it surprising that no one is discussing this point and instead (re-)quoting ST valuations based on "typical EV or ARR multiples" and cash profit rather than actual bottom line net profit.
Does anyone know how they determine amortisation? It seems to me how this is forecast to change over time is a crucial point.
I'm all for balanced views but this person seems to have only negative views on all the shares he posts on. What's the agenda? Keep your savings in the bank! The recurring revenues provide a safety net even if no new deals are signed up. ST is not infallible but I think IC's opinion on PTRO is valid. Could still be dragged lower by market conditions so I'm keeping some powder dry in case opportunity knocks.
Just_having_a_laugh has no reply as usual. Compared to D4T4's price this should be valued at >60p right now, and that's excluding any growth next year from Pelatro which is expected. Also marketing side of business will provide further growth and opportunities in future years. After January's update I can't see how the SP won't be in the 40's or 50's or higher. There's not many shares available here, so big movements will be seen from a small number of buys
Whilst I do agree with you, I find it slightly tricky to take much value from someone who only ever criticises shares. Is there any evidence to support your strong sell opinion?
Significant shift of revenues to the recurring model can only be advantageous and there have been a handful of contract wins announced since the latest results.
This looks like another opportunity to top up for me.
No surprise to me, lets see what comes out. Good luck. Market isn't always wrong, think for yourself and don't follow IC. Seriously, do it yourself, trust no one.
I see this as a window of opportunity and have bought more today. Seems that lots of small companies are sagging right now but I'm looking to see big benefits over the next 6 months.
Agreed I cannot find any news online.
I agree, not sure what the cause of a 9% drop is today. The RNS regarding CFO is no explanation.
Recurring revenues, cash in bank, fair value of 100p.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2021/09/28/dial-into-a-lowly-rated-tech-stock/
Many small caps are sagging at the moment. Given the recurring revenues under contract I feel that this is heavily oversold. Time will tell
The SP is telling you something. Deny it all you like but don't say you didn't have an inkling. There are always reasons.
Too hard to resist an additional top up. Media scare causing 10% share price decline?
"As a software business, we can continue to function efficiently even if most of the employees are working from home. The Group has no supply chain dependencies and Pelatro's software products continue to be available without interruption."
Pelatro are functional regardless of lockdowns, and with the new recurring revenue model the impact and risk is reduced further.
I have significantly increased my position today, share price has fallen back to pre-HY results level even though several contracts have been won since and the company was materially undervalued anyway based on ratios.
I think 80% increase in revenue on last year probably counts as growth. They have pretty well reached last years revenue in first 6 months of this year. Last year was was a bit of a transitional phase where they had a dip in EBITDA but increased recurrals by 71% which again should help build on growth. So two new contracts in the last few months circa $1.6 million with possible extension and a move into Africa telecoms. Looks pretty promising. Rome was not built in a day Rodders!
Tuesday 16/11 saw a dip in spread to 37-37.5
My trade of 25000 at 37.35 at 15.43 was a buy, not a sell