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Hi Tim,
FWIW, I do believe that in a good company but one whose stock is volatile, the trading in (on dips), trading out (on rises), can be very successful.
Done right, it can be more successful actually than simply holding the stock through the whole trip.
And some investors can follow that strategy, as you are doing (and I do understand it and can see all its merits).
But to any other on the BB that might care to read my posts, one needs to be aware that following such a strategy can be emotionally/psychologically debilitating for many people - and that is an "invisible" cost in taking that approach.
I, myself, took the decision not to follow that approach, not because it does not have merits (it does and can be very successful) but because I personally did not want the angst and stress that comes with trading in and out.
Obviously, I keep a watch for anything company-specific or geo-political that could cause me to re-assess my view on the fundamental VALUE of the company but, in the absence of anything of that nature, I intend to just hold to what I believe the likely price point to be.
Both approaches can be right and be successful but each investor just needs to be comfortable with the differing levels of stress that comes with each.
So, I do not now and have not before seen your approach as being at all incompatible with, or inimicable to, a generally positive view on the company and the SP.
Whichever path or route investors choose, I truly hope and believe it leads to the summit.
Mossma- not fully, but aiming to be out fully pre drill results, ideally reducing exposure as we move up. Need to have substantial news to hold through and add on current big rises above certain market cap levels, according to my analysis. Of course, I could be wrong and we could move much higher and that'd still give a good opportunity to scale out pre spud. Insecure mainly of big rises in micro caps in short span of time without significant value creating news that could sustain such rises, and having round tripped the gain to loss scenario multiple times. Hence, skeptical enough of all good micro cap stories until proven otherwise. Let's hope PRD delivers as it's too good of a story with strong management.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
Can I ask Tim, have you sold your holding?
Cheers Sefton. That's exactly what I meant, maybe I didn't put it as succinctly as you did but it's all about challenging ones thesis as that's how conviction builds to hold, add or reduce/sell. And the point about selling high and buying back cheaper was a trading example and would be surprised if anyone can time it exactly like that but it was hypothetical to show that mean reversion does happen and above or below that mean can provide opportunities irrespective of who the market participant is.
We all have confidence in PG and given that PG thought it as a reasonable level to get some capital in at 10.5p levels and market has valued us higher than that level ever since is a testament to PRDs management. PG himself in the video interview suggested, if there is money on the table, take it, as it might not be available when it might be needed, so can't really fault the holders who have made 100s% + profit by placing their confidence in PG, earlier than the market did. Of course we still wait for actual value catalyst events to play out one way or other to get us to higher mcap levels imo.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
In my previous post, I meant geo-politically, not ego-politically.
It could have been poor typing or just a Freudian reaction to some of NH's and SoundReason's postings....
Hi Tim,
I do fully understand your reasoning and it is a perfectly reasonable and logically thought through approach to take.
My view is rather different.
I long time ago took a view on what I thought the likely VALUE of the company was and then took a view on how likely that was to happen and how long it might take.
So, I have only ever added to my position of the period of my investment (I am a mere new kid on the block and have been in 11 months - but I have built a decent position and have added a fair bit even in recent days).
I never try and time the market, so I avoid trying to sell-out, buy back in at a lower price, etc. That is just my approach and what I feel comfortable with. Others, like yourself, take a different approach - different strokes for different folks. Neither on is right or wrong, it is just about what one feels comfortable doing.
So, as regards your approach, I think it has some very good rationale behind it. But it does involve fundamentally making a play on market timing, rather than pure VALUE (on which I base my approach).
Neither is right or wrong and I think the BB does benefit from robust, sane discussion on these approaches.
But unless there is news, either from the company itself or something ego-politically, that would make me change my mind, I intend to hold to what I believe to be the VALUE.
In the interim, the tide may ebb and flow as regards the SP. I understand that and have happy to stay on the ship to the end, rather than island-hop (and that is not a cheap shot - I have always enjoyed your posts and think that all investors should stress-test their investment case against stuff you have said).
Zebra - it's all about +ves/-ves from a given price level. Imo sub 20 mn market cap PRD was attractive and undervalued for the 3 segments( mainly Morocco), at 45mn+ proper news flow might be needed to sustain hold and build on rises. I have always said we need proper news to sustain any rises, not just chart targets. Everyone does their own research and make their own decisions and the point of bbs such as this is to see if views about a specific Co. are correct or not by getting insights from other posters IMO.
I could be wrong about my current fair value and sp keeps going up as that's what I'm hoping for my holding, going into spud, but drop off in volumes across market going into May is what I'd wanted to check if other posters had similar or different views on? Nothing to make anyone doubt, it's just bouncing views/ ideas to see if there's a flaw in my argument which is what all my posts are about. One obviously should not be taking any advice or suggestions from a bb but do their own research, and conviction doesn't go down that quickly just because someone mentioned their view on a bb, it's all about your own research and read on the price and value.
PRD we know has great potential but delivery of the potential via actual news is what will help us hold and build on our gains, not just speculation of great value that we all see in PRD, as markets are non linear. And been pretty clear that ideally will not be staying in for the drill results unless some substantial news changes view. I would have hoped someone would challenge my thinking about holding tight with rational arguments but been less and less confident with the challenges received to the points raised on the bb, especially when profits get smaller and smaller as others choose to take theirs and run with it, going into drill.
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
Tim you're back to sow doubt on a Sunday.
You're suggestion is to sell in hope of buying cheaper to increase number of shares and thus if you repeat it you can increase profits. That's assuming the sp moves how you predict it. We're discussing trading. Now you're advising others to sell to bring the price down.
You sold out and then you changed your tone. Your agenda is pretty clear, no matter how you try to word it.
I won't be posting much here until the next meaningful rns. Too much nonsense and little discussion on the actual company and its projects. I'm fully confident in the management and happily hold 1mil shares.
Atb
Zebra
Zebra - Day to day price movements don't matter much unless the up or down movement is based off on news but curious to understand how you define traders vs investors? Both have an aim of making profits irrespective of labels but IMO a trader is someone who buys in for a very short duration of say less than a day or few days only to exit with a target profit within that time frame irrespective of fundamentals. Just because a holder books profits at levels someone doesn't agree with, are they traders?
We all can look at our holdings and can think what if we sold all or part of PRD holdings at 18p after its 400% rise in few months and buy back at 14p in a few days with the sale capital, and we'd have 25%+ more shares? Hypothetically same goes if we sell at 14p and buy back at 10-11p and so on... When we get a buy or sell quote, the MMs don't ask if we are a investor or trader to get any specific discount/premium prices, market is market, it doesn't distinguish between investor or trader imo.
We had profit booking given the 1000% + rise from yearly bottom and 400% + from last few months. Given that we might be entering low volume period where some might follow the adage of "sell in May, go away " volatility obviously increases a lot more in micro caps so up/down movements without news might not be accurate representative of our perceived value pre spud hence alpha dislocation is higher giving opportunities to investors and traders alike.
Mcap jump from any successful drill results in June or July etc. could be from 90mn mcap or 25 mn mcap levels or anywhere else, no one knows, hence we choose our entry and profit booking points depending on if one choses to hold through drill results. Don't feel Trinidad news will add much value unless financials of the deal for PRD are brilliant rather than just some tie up contracts and optics around it IMO as it's economics all lie in scaling up the contracts given a service and profit sharing model where the actual producer might want to keep the majority of bopd net backs? I could be wrong on the above points but always welcome any corrections /challenges to above from usual contributors?
All IMO and could be wrong so always dyor
We have two assets that can produce within a year and that have massive economic upside based around incredible locations that are tied into the infrastructure like a hand in glove. Moroccan gas can just be pumped cheaply into one of the best pipelines anywhere in the world, as we are just two kilometres away.
Ireland's fields are worth billions. Paul has majors as his neighbours and more likely as his partners in the very near future. It is now looking like it can deliver in Q3 2023 first gas, according to Paul. That has potential too turn a minnow into a shark. The evolution of this company and the pace it is taking is jaw dropping.
As Zeb and Sef state it has to be bought and put away. In less than six months this company has the potential to be worth multiples. These are asymmetric trades for one pound risked several pounds can be created.
People looking at doubles let them take their cash. Now investors can add a little more, as long as they do not over-expose themselves. Stay safe in all areas.
Well I most certainly acted too soon at 8am, but have been very happy to catch what may be the bottom of the drift just now too. Either way, I agree, with others here, nothing has changed in my evaluation of the future prospects and frankly these changes in share price remain minor in comparison.
I have no idea why they SP has fallen.
Nor am I worried (I base my investment case on fundamentals and research and, as far as I now, the situation with PRD has only got better).
And I have also voted with my wallet - I bought a fair chunk earlier this week at 17.62p. Obviously now that looks like a sub-optimal decision - but my view is that the potential (likely) outcome is so much bigger than that, that it doesn't much bother.
We also need be aware that we are part of a broader market. The US market, in which I am much more heavily invested in the UK, has seen a total bloodbath in what they call penny stocks in recent weeks and, whilst the UK market is rather different and somewhat insulated from the social and political collapse in the US , market movements have some correlation.
At the moment, it appears that there is a high level of uncertainty amongst retail investors - who drive the small and micro-cap stocks. They flee to one of three paces, so it seems: i) blue-chip stocks, ii) recovery stocks (pubs, hotels, cruise companies - those that are perceived as most likely to benefit from the easing of lockdown) and iii) crypto-currencies (where one can make -and lose- a lot of money very quickly).
We may have gotten caught up in some of that emotional turbulence and that might be some of the cause of the decline in the SP today.
For what it is worth, I remain focused on what I believe the VALUE of this company to be and will not be selling off at all - I haven't sold a single share in PRD since I started.
I might be right, I might be wrong but my view on today's SP movements is that it is irrelevant in the context of the VALUE of the company - and that will manifest in good time.
Have a good weekend, all.
Agree with you indiscipline.
My strategy to investing is conviction based. So the SP is mainly just noise. The companies progress and development is what matters.
Literally nothing has changed from earlier in the week. If any holders think this won't hit 18p plus again then they might as well sell their shares to real investors.
I've asked GRH but he will not divulge am happy to hear any scenario I'm taking the am not bothered as there was nothing or is nothing to report.
It is why you have to pyramid into a stock so you build a cushion for the pullback that is inevitable. Before I would buy big and then get bullied out on the absolutely inevitable trading pullback. We all have done it. Well I have.
Once it turns up I then chased it from a higher price of course... At which point rinse and repeat care of my MM friends who would relieve me again.
Just thinking of it, I need that bottle of brandy and the trusty derringer... don't need the blindfold I was blind stupid already.
Even as traders they've mistimed this. Selling on a pull back is the hallmark of inexperienced investors.
They're stops are being taken out.
We have had a massive amount of buying last few days. People seeing their short term profits evaporate and that creates nerves and fear. Once they see a range they will calm.
They look at the candles and then see red and fear and stops take over. With such a sharp ascent with heavy buying the pullback on a tightly held share is inevitable and disproportionate. MM's can hoover them up and sell them on to stronger hands who are accumulating from a less extended point than before.
Not sure why anyone would sell now when they could've got 17p earlier in the week.