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Back in for those sold when stated … could go lower of course … nice.
Detailed new note from Equity Development - report & audio summary here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/tough-fy23-outlook-improving-for-flows-returns
In FY23 (to 31 Mar 23), market conditions created strong headwinds for asset managers, especially those with a growth equities bias like Polar. AUM declined 13% from £22.1bn to £19.2bn, with net outflows of - £1.6bn (FY22: + £0.4bn), investment performance of - £0.9bn (FY22: +£0.9bn); and fund closures of - £0.5bn. However, the story of the year was certainly not entirely negative, but mixed, with an improving picture towards year-end and also post-year-end (although we caution that economic and market conditions remain uncertain).
The strength of FY22, buoyed by the bull market of calender-2021, makes FY23 results look comparatively weak. Gross income fell 18% from £226m to £186m. However, performance-tilted variable pay structures resulted in operating costs reducing by 16% from £141m to £119m, which limited margin impact. So, while core operating profit* fell 31% y-o-y from £69m to £45m, core margin fell from 37% to 31%. Statutory PBT fell from £62m to £48m, and PBT margin fell from 28% to 24%.
Polar maintains a strong balance sheet, with cash of £107m (down from £121m), and no debt. This strength has given the board confidence to maintain a full-year dividend of 46p, a yield of 9.3%.
We forecast AUM growth in FY24 based on an improving outlook, although revenues are expected to fall in FY24 (lower ave. AUM), before recovering in FY25. Our fundamental value is 625p per share, 26% above the share price, and we see potential for a company and sector re-rating.
Results day for me usually ends badly ... if I'm out a stock rises 10% and if I'm in it falls 10%.
So I'm still out .... and expect a 10% rise.
GLA
Polar Capital Holdings plc (AIM: POLR), the specialist active asset management group, will be conducting a presentation covering their Full Year results for the financial year to 31st March 2023.
The presentation will be hosted by Gavin Rochussen (Chief Executive Officer) and Samir Ayub (Finance Director).
The event will take place at 10.30am on Wednesday 28th June.
The online presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted during the presentation to be addressed at the end.
Sign up here to register: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/polarcapital-presentation-28jun2023
I've hung on for a bit more of rise then will take stock before a probable fall in July.
Clear here now - Been an excellent share to trade - made up for JUP losses - cleared today - hope for a fall as hope springs eternal.
GLA
Polar’s final quarter of FY23 (to 31 Mar 23) was a strong one, with AUM up by £0.75bn (+4%) to £19.2bn, driven mostly by an investment performance contribution of +£1.2bn (+6% of opening AUM). Net flows of -£410m were recorded but these were almost all down to profit taking from the Global Insurance fund (-£373m) which has delivered significant outperformance.
Year-end AUM has exceeded our previous forecast of £18.3bn. While the Q4 uptick in AUM doesn’t have a big impact on our FY23 financial forecasts, it does bump up our FY24 forecasts and our fundamental valuation increases to 625p, 36% above the current share price. Polar’s PER of 9.1 is also 40% below the 15.2 median of a UK-listed asset manager peer group.
https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/aum-up-4-in-strong-q4-inflows-for-many-strategies
I can't find any particular reason for the drop other than the general unpopularity of technology companies at the moment, etc. Even the shorters don't seem interested!
So I will continue to top up at these low prices when I get the chance.
Blimey these are taking a battering this week. TFI Friday!
Good day.
Our latest research following this morning's update (full link here: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/aum-slightly-down-fy23-forecasts-unchanged)
AUM fell 1.6% over Q3 of FY23 (to 31 Dec 22) to £18.47bn. Over the first nine months of the FY the AUM fall totalled 16%, although this was heavily impacted by the significant sell off in technology stocks in Q1 (Apr – Jun 22). Net outflows totalled £304m during the quarter, lower than the £529m recorded in Q2 and the £316m of Q1. Market movements and investment performance contributed +£19m over the quarter (Q2: +£342m; Q1: -£2,393m). The closure of Phaeacian mutual funds in Q1 resulted in a -£469 impact on AUM.
The lower net outflows of the latest quarter and two consecutive quarters of positive investment performance suggests a degree of positivity in some of the major sectors Polar is exposed to, and perhaps some stability in the most significant technology sector. More specifically, Polar has reported:
• continued demand and inflows into the Global Insurance, Healthcare Blue Chip, Smart Energy and Emerging Market Stars funds, with combined net inflows of £190m in the quarter;
• a continuing decline in the rate of outflows from its open-ended Technology funds, with £217m of outflows in Q3 compared to £252m in Q2 and £380m in Q1.
This latest AUM update suggests Polar is on track to meet our previous FY23 forecasts, which remain unchanged (we will revisit forecasts & valuation with the Q4 AUM update in April), as does our fundamental valuation of 600p per share (20% above the closing 11 Jan 2023 share price). We also highlight that Polar’s PER of 9.8 is significantly below the 12.2 median PER of a UK-listed active fund manager peer group.
:oD
Holding on is all I can do. My 20 odd stocks just drift up and down with the tide. Nothing seems likely to happen, until Putin falls down a steeper flight of stairs or stands too close to one of those Russian windows.
Added on recent results. Might dip lower but big yield recompense for holding and until further rotation into growth stocks.
Polar Capital Holdings plc (AIM: POLR), the specialist active asset management group, conducted a presentation covering its Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2022.
Gavin Rochussen (Chief Executive Officer) and Samir Ayub (Finance Director) ran investors through the key highlights of the period, a detailed financial review, and provided an update on fund performance as well as AuM & Fund Flows. The management team also answered investor questions.
If you missed the live event, you can watch the full presentation replay, which has been divided into chapters for ease of viewing:
0:00:03 Overview & Highlights
0:01:14 Market Perspective
0:03:05 Fund Performance & Capacity
0:07:53 AuM & Fund Flows
0:12:21 Financial Review
0:23:07 Strategy & Outlook
0:29:00 Questions & Answers
Link to video: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/polar-capital-24nov2022-interims-presentation
Nice big trade …. Going through ….
Link to full report and audio summary: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/research/core-profit-margin-still-over-30-in-brutal-markets
AUM fell 15% in H1-23, from £22.1bn on 1 Apr 22 to £18.8bn on 30 Sep 22. Unsurprisingly, given the widespread sell-off in equities, investment performance accounted for -£2.1bn of the fall, with net outflows of -£0.8bn, and the closure of the Phaeacian funds in the US -£0.5bn.
Despite gloomy markets, there are multiple positive signals and signs of management confidence:
- Positive net inflows were recorded in multiple funds, including Global Insurance, Biotechnology, Healthcare Blue Chip, Smart Energy, European ex-UK Income, Emerging Market Stars, Forager and Global Absolute Return, and net outflows from open-ended Technology funds have slowed.
- Polar has reported a strong pipeline of investor interest in multiple strategies, and that the short list of new potential investment teams is larger than for many years.
- The board has declared an interim dividend of 14.0p per share, unchanged from H1-22 (if the total full-year dividend is maintained at 46p, that would be a yield of 9.7% at today’s share price).
- Directors’ have made over £2.2m of share purchases, in cash, during 2022.
We maintain confidence in the strength of Polar’s strategic positioning, and that it is well positioned to return to growth, despite significant short-term uncertainty. Our fundamental valuation is 600p per share, 27% above the current share price, and we flag that Polar’s PER of 9.3, is undemanding and below a peer group median of 10.0.
Yes, pretty reassuring. Well poised to benefit if/when equities bounce back over the next few years, and at this level the dividend is pretty healthy compensation while you're waiting for the SP to recover!
All things considered, a pretty good update & the interim dividend maintained too!
Thinking a top up might be in order. Late tomorrow, perhaps.
Due next Monday (21st), hope they encourage the recent recovery in sp here to continue. Still a long way to go before it gets back to my average, so that might take more than one good update.
Sign up to register at the link: https://www.equitydevelopment.co.uk/news-and-events/polarcapital-investor-presentation-24nov22
Polar Capital Holdings plc (AIM: POLR), the specialist active asset management group, will be conducting a presentation covering its Interim Results for the six months ended 30 September 2022.
The online event will take place at 12.45pm on Thursday 24th November and will be hosted by Gavin Rochussen (Chief Executive Officer) and Samir Ayub (Finance Director).
The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted during the presentation to be addressed at the end.
Full position after todays performance, really like the fundamentals and now the technical set up too. Post US midterms is usually positive for stocks and sentiment is at all time lows. Could be in for a significant rerate soon.
Looks like he knew what he was doing .
Yesterday's RNS has not been remarked on here, but I for one thought it was very encouraging that a non-exec director saw fit to purchase £1m of shares!