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Due tomorrow
Funny you should say that as I regard Phoenix as one of the prime candidates eyeing up Miton. There's a golden window at present for them to make a lucrative and meaningful addition to their AUM, bring on board a seasoned and prudent UK team and make a sensible offer for both parties at 50%+'of the current MCap. Win win imo.
Sisyphus; thanks your contributions, workings, time.
I concur with you totally on PMI, and generally feel asset managers are undervalued, ripe for consolidation.
Frankly, and it will probably be private equity, I think this industry is ripe for the sort of thing Phoenix did to consolidate, centralise, reduce duplicating costs, and to make small margins on large amounts count even more by reducing the underutilized fixed costs.
Without considering the rise/switch to low cost tracking funds/ETFs, there are just TOO many independent asset mfrs in the investment space.
The upside here is considerable so congrats for taking a position. A lot of posters fail to provide reasoned logic for their holding or accumulation which was why I posted the Math for mine. The target price is still £2.11 on that basis. I see £1.50 as a sensible visual step on the journey whete I will reassess but currently I'm quietly accumulating in my ISA.
Sisyphus
Congrats, you called this one bang on (so far, long may it continue), certainly looking more promising for happy holders this week !
You certainly called it right this week, we keep our fingers crossed for next week, but soon coming up to the half year figures aren't we, end of May ?
Should be interesting then.
As I suggested, serious money is now targeting PMI with 10k share parcels being bought on the bounce. There is only so long that a sensible £2.11 item can be sold for less than £1.00 for goodness sake. The penny is finally dropping that this is a hoot of a bargain at this basement price... happy to keep buying and patient to watch it grow. Solid.
So it appears that about 200,000 shares were sold by a director to cover his tax liabilities, after some of his shares vested according to an rns today.
There certainly was a persistent seller this week.
Nevertheless the modest bounce back is reassuring to me as when you keep averaging down each day you, (well I do), start getting rather windy...
yes and the spread is very good
Well the volume is good in the first 20 minutes & all trades appear to be between 89.7 & 90.5 which is a much better start to the day than we have seen recently.
Long may it continue...
I suspect that 'serious money' is now being targeted at PMI.
Stock or knickers to bounce back up ?
I do very much share your analogy of elastic, but having been an active buyer these last few weeks I do hope the elastic does ping back unlike the proverbial broken knicker elastic !
Perfect hand for those holdi.g at this level. Bounce back time beckons??
Just a hunch.....we are that close......
As each day passes and we get a dip the elastic is being wound tighter and tighter until one day either today, tomorrow or in the very near future, it will release and we will see double digit jumps. Just a matter of time.
As it's not in the big FTSE's there is no indication of any short selling but I am sure this is being driven down against all logic by a hedge manager. The good thing is that we are now at the position where a sharp reversal could/should occur as any short is rapidly closed against a precipitate rise. There have been no disclosures from major institutions excepting Fidelity in January so confidence in PMI is as strong as one would expect giving more than adequate upside potential for all at this level. Certainly any bid would have to be well north of £1.50. Like you say, Slater Investments have a good nose for intrinsic value and are comfortable weathering dips like this as they have already researched the upside which looks very strong at £2+ on all the Math I stated earlier. Solid.
Not wishing to be a PMI bore but this drip drip drop every day is becoming like Chinese water torture.
The only upside for me is that my limit at 89 was not filled last night so I only had to pay 88.3 today...
87p tomorrow I wonder?
There has to be a large seller here because buys are being filled just above the bid price.
But no TR 1 yet.
One thing that gives me confidence is the major shareholders list, always good to see Slater as a large holder on a small company, his record is better than most, by & large.
Very impressed by a lightening quick response to a website update that I highlighted. 10 out of 10 for listening to investors and implementing.
For right or for wrong I just added at 90.2 with a limit on to buy more at 89.
Agree on your observations but do think the market is pulling PMI down with little reference to its broad product base. Premiers Fixed income investments and US were up but UK and Europe followed market sentiment. It's diverse range of investments allied to decent provenance, history and prudent management means it should weather the current gloom better than most and be one of the prime beneficiaries as sentiment turns. Inflation is on.thr cusp of dropping as the anniversary of the Ukraine conflict starts to weaken 12 month comparators. I am quietly and confidently accumulating here on the back of a slow and sustained upswing....notwithstanding the ever present possibility of a bid which seems extremely justifiable on the Math.
Gents, thanks for your thoughts, I saw the woodbois myself but assmed the people taking losses on that would be holders of the fund/trust, not PMI shareholders?
A slight reputational risk, sure, but every investment collective has a few duds in it, even Smithson...
My main fear is that, even though I came to broadly the same valuation as Sisyphus, what does bother me is that betting against "Mr Market" is often a dangerous game as he is rarely wrong.
However the more I look the less negatives I can see so I guess I will add again and just hope Mr Market is having a bad day today.
PMI have made some bad judgment calls recently such as the Woodbois investment. What are PMI's losses on those?
I hope that in striving for higher profits, they have not become overly adventurous.
However most financials have been hit in similar way, all due to the high inflation/interest rate environment we are presently in. Next year will be quite a different story as inflation and rates reduce and a yield of 7 to 9% becomes attractive again.
Apologies, I missed out the logical math progression....try again.....
Calculating the logical share price for a listed UK asset manager with 158 million shares in issue and managing assets of £11 billion requires several assumptions, as the valuation of an asset management company depends on a variety of factors such as investment performance, fee structure, client retention, and market conditions. Therefore, any estimate should be taken as indicative and subject to significant uncertainty.
One approach to estimating the logical share price is to use a multiple of the company's assets under management (AUM) or its earnings. The most common multiples used in the asset management industry are price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios.
Assuming the company has a P/E ratio of 15 and an AUM-to-revenue ratio of 1.5%, the calculation for the logical share price would be:
Calculate the total revenue generated by the AUM: AUM x AUM-to-revenue ratio = £11bn x 1.5% = £165m
Calculate the earnings based on the P/E ratio: Earnings = Total revenue / P/E ratio = £165m / 15 = £11m
Calculate the book value of the company based on the AUM: Book value = AUM x P/B ratio = £11bn x 1.5 = £165m
Calculate the logical share price based on the book value and earnings: Logical share price = (Book value + (Earnings x P/E ratio)) / Total number of shares = (£165m + (£11m x 15)) / 158m = £2.11
Therefore, based on these assumptions, the logical share price for a listed UK asset manager with 158 million shares in issue and managing assets of £11 billion would be approximately £2.11.
As I posted my calculations previously here we go again. Calculating the logical share price for a listed UK asset manager with 158 million shares in issue and managing assets of £11 billion requires several assumptions, as the valuation of an asset management company depends on a variety of factors such as investment performance, fee structure, client retention, and market conditions. Therefore, any estimate should be taken as indicative and subject to significant uncertainty.
One approach to estimating the logical share price is to use a multiple of the company's assets under management (AUM) or its earnings. The most common multiples used in the asset management industry are price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios.
Assuming the company has a P/E ratio of 15 and an AUM-to-revenue ratio of 1.5%, the calculation for the logical share price would be £2.11
And I can't be the only one doing the Math hence this is now a highly vulnerable time for a bid arriving imo.