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Interesting news….
https://www.investegate.co.uk/hurricane-energy-plc--hur-/rns/recommended-acquisition-of-hurricane-energy-plc/202303160741041988T/
The NAV is on the accounts….more than double the current share price.
Question : do any of you seasoned PHAR investors have a NAV figure for the company? Thanks in advance.
One too many zeroes....but still....
....and a late 425,0000 trade.......
Nothing announced for a whole week. Interesting…..
Just on the points I raised after the RNS, it is worth going back to eg the October 2019 presentation in the context of Lead A on 125:
* Sediment thickness up to 8km in the main basin depocenter
• By analogy with the Cuu Long Basin, the Phu Khanh Basin has the potential for Billion Barrel Hydrocarbon Fields
……so if the thickest sediment is under the massive structure of Lead A, how much oil could that hold? My guess is about 2.5bn bbls. Of course, that is all it is: a guess. But when the data is published later this year, and the farm-in partner announced (summer?), we should get a very much better idea.
Note that they are very clearly “not saying anything” at this point……just continuing to buy back stock….
Fair point.
I always thought Ed was persuaded rather than an evangelist for Egypt, but they needed a deal at that point, having binned their Kuwait discussions. I thought Egypt OK too, but was looking mainly at the explo upside and the apparent existence of a higher bid.
But 125 has been the main reason I stayed in. I think there is proper company-making potential.
https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/vietnam-operator-on-the-hunt-for-drillship-for-big-exploration-target/2-1-1387318
If memory serves - Ed described 125 as potentially 'a company maker'
mind you he also bought Egypt!
as you say - probably worth the wait - especially with buybacks and dividends to support value in interim
Re 125 the statement concludes:
“the opportunity which we have in our Exploration Block in Vietnam is unique and significant effort will be spent this year in concluding the analysis, planning the well and bringing in the right partner.”
My question is: how many billion barrels of prospective resources does it take to have a “unique” opportunity?
As at the date of the interims, Lead A was looking to be about 400 square kilometres with 2-3 strata of interest at various points within that. That would potentially be a bigger field in terms of area than Bach Ho. And we’ve seen TGT wells producing net pay of 30 to 120 metre thickness.
Intriguing - and probably worth the wait to get the right group of partners together…..
Some positives mixed in with some risks
Positive: share buybacks, dividend prospects, future Vietnam development
Risks: Egypt cash, wide ranging production guidance
Steady away as always. At least this time next year maybe close to debt free.
No steer, of course, on dividend quantum - beyond the minimum of 10% of operating cashflow. I’ve leave an accountant to guess what that might be, but I’m guessing 1.5p per share.
Intriguing comments on 125, which imply to me that the deepwater prospect size is substantial and may not have been covered fully by the grid of the 3D seismic. More on that in March no doubt.
It would be nice if Egypt could settle a chunk of dollar debt in H1.
I'll be interested to see the trading update in the New Year. It is likely to be the most relevant one for some years, given that the usual uncontrollable factors (such as oil price volatility) have had much less impact in the last half-year than some recent periods.
I'll be particularly interested in any pre-results steer on the planned dividend quantum and the 125 plans.
Well I was wrong, the buyback goes on.
I've had a quick look at the July announcement. They said they would be spending about USD 3m and it would last 3-6 months. Shares in issue have dropped by about 9.7m. Using pure guesses of average exchange of 1.15 and average price of say 23p gives a possible buyback of 11.3m shares so perhaps more to go yet.
(ps there is enough info available for an exact calculation but that'll do for me).
I'll put in my tuppence hapenny worth :)
On another note it seems like the buyback may have run its course. Hopefully Radoff will be buying on weakness and prevent a drift back down.
Does anyone want the share their speculation about what a modest dividend might mean? 2p?
emptyend - Share price strength more to do with Mr.Radoff building a stake then buybacks IMO. Once he has built his stake(usually around 10%)Jann and co better start performing or they may be in for some bother to say the least!!
.....not much at all?
Up 40% since your comment of less than 2 months ago.....??
Some large blocks of shares being traded outside of the company's buyback prog.....eg 450,000 yesterday.
Holdings RNS due, perhaps?
391k at 26.28. Wonder which of the buyers bought them......
Any idea on timing of these well results ? I had thought might have had an update on TGT by now.
Broker forecasts (from Stockopedia) is showing a forecast eps of 8.5p. If this turns out to be true then PHAR, at this share price is seriously cheap!
There is no smoke without fire.
As far as I can see the vampire squid has bought a 3%+ holding, although I'm not sure why some of it is non voting (derivatives perhaps?).
IF someone was thinking of a takeover I suppose this would be a first sign. But who would be mad enough to want to buy a company whose free cash flow for next year was roughly equivalent to its market cap? I wonder if IPR might sense an opportunity now that they have had a chance to assess the potential of the Egyptian fields?
(Just thinking out loud. All pure speculation DYOR etc.)