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Is the 80 million excess cash or due to.a reduction in pension payments ? Or will the reduction in payments to the pension not kick in yet. Read that the reduction is from 320 million to 180 million ?
I feel sorry for the Felix Project
Premier Foods PLC PFD Peel Hunt Buy 46.75 45.20 80.00 - Reiterates........SP target 80p.
Recent market comment........https://www.marketscreener.com/news/Premier-Foods-reports-sales-boost-as-shoppers-stock-up-in-lockdown--30443154/
Lovely move up through the 100 day EMA considered in the business, Very Bullish. I bought first thing, stock is on forward P/E of just 6.8........very cheap.
https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=legacydaily&epic=L^PFD&type=4&size=3&period=4&ind_type1=1&ind1_1=&ind2_1=&olx_1=3&ma_type1=3&o_1maday1=10&o_2maday1=&o_colour1=1&olx_2=3&ma_type2=3&o_1maday2=50&o_2maday2=&o_colour2=2&olx_3=3&ma_type3=3&o_1maday3=100&o_2maday3=&o_colour3=3&scheme=&delay_indices=DELAYED_INDICES
dogger....I'll think you will find that it is not a large company with many employees.
Anyone know why LSE don’t seem to pick up all RNS’s ?
It will mean that probably there will be no dividend payment soon. But as long as the s.p keeps on rising that will do me. Up almost 100% here in a few weeks, and top sliced. Pharma's a good risers at the present time.
4 million a year savings in interest payments. Pay.ent will be completed before results are announced.
On the move now
Yes that's great news to be paying back / off £80m of debt some 2 years early and that will also save £millions in interest payments.
PFD must be generating plenty of cash and so we look forward to seeing higher profits in the next few weeks.
Disappointing response in SP so far
80 million that 20 % of debt gone... this is massive news... I suspect we will have some more good news very soon.
Yes, this really does seem like the real thing this time and not just another false dawn.
Wow... This keeps getting better and better... could we see a pound in front of the share price soon....
Bisto - thanks, I take your point regarding FCF, however I won't take the reported number as is - I guarantee you it's had more than a dash of thousand island sprinkled over it.
And hope you're right re EBITDA, It looks like it should be on the higher end of expectations.
And I've been a little miserly with the multiple (I can't help myself, this is Premier Foods after all).
The real mover though will be how much of that pesky pension deficit can be removed from the equation. Excited to see how that plays out.
ck81 - i think some of your numbers do not look to be closer to the mark.
debt will be close to £420M ( after another £50m free cash this year), EBITDA could be £150M, but likely be a touch higher given the higher margin grocery did well in 4th quarter.
use the above to crunch you numbers and see what you get
I've also been looking at the value of this old dog, but from a different approach.
PFD makes somewhere in the region of £150m EBITDA. Using a conservative multiple for what is effectively a boring but stable food company of say 10 times? gives us an enterprise value of circa £1.5bn.
Debt we'll say is around £600m (assume the £500m quoted has been dressed a little).
The pensions are £1bn surplus for the RHM scheme and £500m deficit for the others (as at Sept 2019). I'm not 100% clear on this but I think the issue PFD have had in the past is that the schemes' assets and liabilities are separately ringfenced with no cross-subsidisation. Bear in mind though that these are accounting valuations which aren't the same as technical valuations. (and certainly not the same as a DCF on the cash contributions).
But let's say, £1.5bn less £600m debt less £500m pension liability, leaves circa £400m for equity, slightly north of today's mkt cap of £350m. Any hidden liabilities? Don't seem to be any leases or onerous contracts.
So in theory, there's a potential £500m up for grabs if the pensions are fixed. That's around 58p per share over and above the current price!?!
Couple of big caveats though:
- how do technical and dcf valuations compare to accounting valuation?
- what's happened to those valuations since Sept? Asset values must be down and with bond rates down, liabilities must be up.
- even if RHM surplus is still a billion, insurance buy-out must be well short of that number, so the £500m hole in the other schemes won't be completely plugged (company have stated that the benefit in cash contributions would be in the region of £140m though).
Still, with potential pension scheme upside, trading forecast to be at the upper end of forecasts, and potentially even a higher multiple if the top line starts to move, for possibly the first time in 12 long and painful years, I'm struggling to see the downside to this right now.
I feel almost dirty saying that so if anyone disagrees, I'm all ears.
There is no sure thing with shares, but PFD is one of a handful of companies that will come out of this covid situation stronger.
At 45p there is huge potential as people will be eating at home for many months ahead and now holidays cancelled, will want to take comfort in brands that they can relate to and trust.. when the train leaves it will never look back.
Further to the Group's announcement on 20 April 2020, and in light of the published guidance by the FRC and FCA, Premier Foods today confirms that it will be delaying the announcement of its Preliminary results for the 52 weeks ended 28 March 2020. The Group had originally intended to release the Preliminary results on 14 May 2020 but, to ensure the Company and its auditors have sufficient time to complete the standard Full year reporting requirements, the Company intends now to release its Preliminary results by the end of June. Confirmation of the exact reporting date will be provided nearer the time.
The Group's guidance for the 52 weeks ended 28 March 2020 remains unchanged. As previously announced, on 20 April 2020, the Group's sales for the fourth quarter of its FY19/20 financial year are expected to be up +3.6% with Trading profit expected to be at the top end of market expectations. The Group expects to comfortably beat its Net debt/EBITDA target of 3.0x at 28 March 2020. As previously indicated, trading in the first few weeks of FY20/21 continues to be ahead of average patterns of demand.
The delay is probably because of logistics due to distance working I imagine. Usually at this time you'd have an army of external auditors wandering around the offices and leafing through docs. Doing everything remotely must be more time consuming.
Certainly doesn't hurt to have more visibility of Q1 though.
My only concern is what's happening with the pension schemes. Merging the schemes and utilising/locking in the RHM surplus is a game-changer, and would translate directly to equity. But with current market volatility the asset values must be all over the place. This might not be the best time for an insurance buy-out. Fingers crossed I'm wrong and we get something definitive.
https://www.stockopedia.com/articles/brokers-upbeat-on-premier-foods-despite-economic-uncertainty-33368/
Food buying habits of lockdown here to stay ( hopefully )
Some big gains with banks and travel, so assume day traders have moved to them. CCL went up 14 % today, some smaller banks VMUK 7.7 % up. I maybe a holder.
Strange, such great interest over the last few weeks to nothing...
I agree they are great products to have. I do not often write here, but this weekend, I couldn't help but wonder why a week before the reports were meant to be out on the 14th May , they delay them, but don't know when they will be ready , although it will be sometime before the end of June. How can they decide ,so late on, that they need up to 6 weeks to finish them?
Must be something positive i think. If you look at the strategic view, that was started with no sign of an end date, then all of a sudden!
Not a great start to trading, so lets hope for a positive week overall.
Offers seem to be back at morrisons. Kipling cakes and cadbury branded £1. They seem to be snapped up, but that could be just me. Helps i love the products, so i invest. Cadbury cases in pack of 6 have new, on the box and they have gone already.very,VEVRY nice. Looking forward to the next few weeks.on this.