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Agree jimstevens I’m cautious on Premier Foods like you. I’m thinking share price will go up a lot but not now. Likely in 2022-24 with financial company recovery, hopefully growing ok & likely promise of share dividend coming with decent yield not just token gesture. Share price maybe stuck in a trading range until then. It’s about fashion trend investing, right timing & even if broker targets are higher based on valuation, investors can find better alternatives elsewhere. Share price for PFD was top FTSE performer last year so great SP rise for lucky investors. I know food is safe investment but Government's are underwriting economic growth cheques, pumping Trillions into world economy & Risk On Bets For Better Economy. So that’s where the money is flowing in & not consumer stable food companies. I would dabble share trading them but holding them will cost me profits elsewhere. I would be trend investing for now which may be a better strategy. Just before economy turns downwards reverse strategy & move into safe foods investing. GLA
I agree with the general sentiment
However
I just do not see 'better value' elsewhere ?
Like everyone else I have traded boo RR ted ect.
All I see is risk...and lucky to still be in front
Here at pfd we have peaks and troughs with overall trend up long term
Not making much out of it...but a win is a win...and I like it here
Good news is welcome
Kind regards
The j
StockMarket returns will be good for 2 years I would hope so. Then hit with big whack of inflation, higher interest rates & higher taxes. So got to make decent share returns now. Growth economy shares will outperform others. Like you jimstevens I’ve been heavily trading shares. So much that I’m rated a Super ViP at my stockbroker with great pricing & perks. My 40 years shares experience & together with working at Proctor & Gamble, Diageo, General Mills, IT, Telecoms & Management Consultancy in Senior Sales & Marketing areas says Premier Foods money worth is increasing. Last year I traded Pharma shares, Pandemic related shares & I missed taking big risks but made profits. This year I will up my risk investing as small window now to make bigger profits in a rising stock market. If you are inclined then the risk rewards pay back is best ever you are going to get for some time. I’m on the hunt for growth value shares !
So you are seeing signs of possible inflation on the horizon, and expect things to go wrong in 2 years time.
If the market sees danger then the correction will happen very quickly.
There was a big market crash in oct 1987, inflation took hold in 1989 ( 2 years later), interest rates peaked in 1990. How do you explain this
forgot to mention the market crash of 1987 ( black friday) was due to possible inflation on the horizon, so your logic of the side effect in stock market happens 2 years later is the wrong way round.
OK so this is a productive discussion over a quiet weekend...thank you everyone
1. Yes Russia is in fact the worlds biggest problem right now
2. Inflation is a certainty... Commentators are predicting it...and history demonstrates the only way to get over massive spending is to inflate our way out of it
3. Pernix I thought I spotted a fellow 'shark' but polite along with it :)
Just my thoughts
Kind regards
The jim
jimstevens. If it’s Black & you say White then you are entitled to your way of thinking. My thoughts are open but that’s the way I’m thinking at the moment. You’re spot on, the issues you’ve listed. Take the shark thing out. Hah Ha...
Yes sorry...fair enough
The 'shark' thing is a literary reference to Robbie burns book 'trade like a shark'
Enjoy what's left of the week endy end
Kind regards
jimstevens: I see Jim, maybe I misunderstood sorry Sir. Seriously, if you’ve got any share ideas let me know. I got large sums of money to re-allocate. You can privately respond to me if you wish. I got a company in mind with potential double sales in 5 years & monopolistic innovative IT products in fast growing global markets, net margins at 40 %, cash rich, highly cash flow generative & very low debt. House Broker saying 30% undervalued at moment against market prospects, nearest competition. I’ve was trading this share & can now commit to investing for medium term. IT sector is Cyclical Growth area which outperforms in good economic times. Maybe you got something in mind like this share?
jimstevens: I forgot to mention. This IT company is paying 5.5% Dividend Yield & will benefit a great deal from the global economic recovery.
Appreciated...the only thing I have at the moment that is worth watching is lon:MTO
I scalped a bit out of it last week and now waiting for it to drop below 60 pence
Kind regards
The jim
jimstevens: I will look into this, mto. thank you jim. Enjoy the evening. Sunny hear in Sussex :-)
Kallumama: Premier Foods time will come to shine. I do like the new management in place & their ambitions. Just it will take a little bit of time for their efforts to fully pay off. Then Mr Market to recognise this more. Nothing is easy nowadays or never has been. Anything can happen for good or worse. Kallumama, I have learnt from you lots & thank you much for your useful insights. This chat board has some other great contributions, thanks.
Kalluma...appreciated your comments... Some are a bit hard for me to understand...essentially I agree...however pfd is a money machine...close scrutiny of the accounts demonstrates revenue coming in and debt going down...and fast...there are very few companies I can say the same thing about...keep it coming I enjoy (( sensible and or humouous ) not ( buffoonish ) ) commentary
As always
Jim
Kallumama - look at the free cash flow for Boohoo over the last 5 years compared to Premier Foods. And, Boohoo has no debt.
Kallumama: You’re right anything can happen. I say trade shares for now whilst the going is good. Share markets are rising now. Keep an eye on such negative events & pull back when things may worsen. I just bought 75K shares yesterday & those things you mention did not prevent me from buying, so ride those winners.
Kallumama - your problem is you put too much emphasis on free cash flow hence why you bought Premier Foods instead of Boohoo more than 5 years ago.
You must look at Return on Equity and Return on Capital Employed and not simply concentrate on free cash flow.
Boohoo is a 4.5 billion company because it is a high growth company.
Kallumama - why do you come on to the Boohoo chat board constantly to sabotage Boohoo?
What does that say about you as a person and an investor?
some Americans say, inflation is cancelled and expectations - overrated.
Should we pile in TLT (US long term bonds)? What about UK/EU market? US bond vs PFD in case of deflation?
https://hoisington.com/pdf/HIM2021Q1NP.pdf
Kallumama - please do some research on Boohoo instead of spouting rubbish on the Boohoo chat board.
If you did some proper research on Boohoo you'd see they're at least a ten bagger from here.
Paul Scott was a Director of Finance for a UK Fashion Company before he left to become a private investor and write for the likes of the Small Cap Value Report on Stockopedia.
Here is what he said about Boohoo yesterday:-
"In my view this share is the ultimate coffee can share - it's my biggest personal portfolio holding, and I intend holding forever.
It's already more than 10-bagged from the lows a few years ago, and I think the almost infinitely scalable business model, combined with incredibly hard-working and ambitious management with plenty of skin in the game, should be a winning formula for investors.
Could it 10-bag again from here, to make a >100 bagger in total?
Yes, I think so, taking a say 10-15 year view."
I invested £100,000 in Boohoo shares in 2015. I have held them through every up and down. They are now worth nearly £1.3m. I research Boohoo on a regular basis. I will be keeping my Boohoo shares for many years to come.
Mahmud Kamani has never owned 60% of shares in Boohoo. Mahmud Kamani has more money invested in Boohoo shares than he sold. Mahmud Kamani would never let Boohoo fail. It is his passion, hence why it will continue to grow and grow.
Premier Foods use their free cash flow to pay down debt.
Boohoo have no debt and use their free cash flow to grow the business.
Boohoo bought US business Nasty Gal for £20 million and have grown it into a £100m revenue in less than two years.
Boohoo bought two thirds of Prettylittlething for less than £3 million. Boohoo paid a fair price for the remaining one third of Prettylittlething. Prettylittlething had grown to £500m revenue when Boohoo bought the last third of it and so it paid a fair price for it.
Boohoo Group own 15 Brands. These are Boohoo, BoohooMan, Nasty Gal, Prettylittlething, MissPap, Karen Millen, Coast, Oasis, Warehouse, Burton, Dorothy Perkins, Wallis, Debenhams, Maine New England, Mantaray.
Estimate of the Intrinsic value price of a Boohoo Share.
1) 5 year EPS growth rate estimate from yahoo finance (analysis page) is 29.9% per year. From the balance sheet we can see that equity has grown from £85.5million in 2015 to £569 million in 2020. That is 46% per year compounded growth.
2) The 5yr historic PE from MSN Money price ratios is High of 70.86 and low of 37.69 is 52.7 average.
3) Last EPS was 5.3p x 30% growth rate 1.3 x 10 yrs = 69p. Therefore the estimated EPS is 69p in 10yrs.
4) The earnings per share of 0.69p x the future PE of 52.7 gives a share value in 10 yrs of £35.88.
5) If you take 15% profits year on year from this sum you achieve a current fair price of £7.71
6) discount this by 50% for a margin of safety purchase price of £3.85. Basically you can buy Boohoo shares all the way up to £3.85 and still get a fantastic bargain.
I have run this calculation on a multitude of companies, and none meet the criteria.
If you can find any companies with a solid history of exceptional trading like Boohoo that have lost substantial value through no real fault then please let me know of them.
PeoplePower
If you are having a bad day...I genuinely sympathise
Otherwise
Please go away and bother elsewhere
Kind regards
Jim
jimstevens - please tell Kallumama to stay of the Boohoo chat board.