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That's a decent combination ! Were you born in Dublin? Have you still got an Irish accent or has it morphed into a SouthernscousechesterOirishEastern mix? I remember (I think !) talking on here to you about expectation and materialism (and guitar playing) when you mentioned India a few years ago.. We've been here so long, it's all turning into a blur....
I bet she was well fit in her day init but she's pretty specialist these days I wish I never posted that Venezuela arbitration article its been nothing but wrist cutters on here ever since thank god for network rail or I would be begging that great raconteur Onion to tell us more stories of the mystic east
Dublin-Liverpool-London-Manchester-India but mostly London so I'm more of a southern nancy boy!
...Schofield ...are you talking about my girlfriend, or my other love, Brigitte?... Probably a successful idea for Brigitte on the super-punctual Zurich mainline, but highly ineffective on the 7.30 North Western From Bolton to Walkden. We seem to have a healthy mix of Welshies, Brummies, Geordies, Mancs and Lancs, and Yorkies on here.. Where else do people hail from on here?
Your doing it all wrong mate you got to tie her to the tracks Train will never get her up there without a nudge
Now that was a great day!
Numpy I went to the Bolton Birmingham game last year when we needed a point to stay up and we equalised in injury time after being 2-0 down. I fell down the stairs in excitement and I'm hoping when we get the result from Oxs I have the same feeling of elation minus the falling down the stairs ;-)
Girlfriend works in Bolton, Numpty... she's there at the mo - It drives me crazy how many times she's stood at a platform and no train comes - bl**dy disgrace!.. Same at Manchester Victoria..chaos and frustration every day
Yes I do !!Lol !! You're not wrong mate! Re trains- nightmare, I don't commute but partial to night out in Manchester - trains are terrible!
;o)...yeah Skoda, I'e tried to watch some of Brigitte's videos, but you have to stick with them a good 36-hours before you get to any good bits.. Brigitte always pretexts the loss of each item of clothing with a 24-page legalistic document about jurisdiction of garment, loss of dignity (and can its loss be mitigated by pecuniary transfer), asset management, and costs.
Numpty ..You live in Bolton? While he's in between funding Oxus and sorting out Bolton Wanderers, get him to sort out the trains from Bolton to Manchester - they're either delayed/late or cancelled every bl**dy day! Bl**dy British transport system...Maybe I'll take 'em to International Arbitration one day for exproriating my will to live
He's a x bolton lad so hopefully if they do win he might chip in and help sort out the shambles that us bwfc !! Lol
I think it then just becomes a matter of faith, I know Calunius have done pretty big hitters themselves , including Mike Smith, they're a new breed of company aiming to really set a marker down and shake up this sector - think they have an awful lot to lose themselves if this goes pair shaped!! Notable that co- founder Mr Smith has both a law and mathematics degree so I'm assuming win ratio has been carefully thought through!!
And i thought you had seen videos lol
Cheers..sorry didn't get back earlier Numpty - this 70% Calunius thing...I don't think you can take it as set in stone and somehow an absolute. You could argue that EVERY company that goes into international arbitration thinks it has a 50+ , 60, 70, 80, 90% chance of winning, surely? It must do, by definition.? Look at it the other way round: Would you go through 5+ years of international arbitration, with all the attendant costs, time wastage and stress, if you didn't think you were going to win. Of course everyone thinks they have a strong enough case to win - but many lose. Sure, Calunius believed we had a strong enough case - but then White and Case will have thrown up unknowns that Calunius probably had no idea about .. All I'm saying is that court cases are fluid, they morph with time with new evidence/witness statements...70% confidence yesterday may not not mean 70% confidence today (it might now be 40% 55%, 60%, 70% , 80%?...and how are these figures translated into reality? It's not an exact science.. And, with new evidence that ALL cases throw up - are you saying that 70% confidence remains a static unbudgeable constant for 5 years? What if their confidence was now 30%...or 40%...Would they quit?I doubt any company would quit... How many companies have pulled out of International Arbitration even when evidence was going against them? Camkite - yep, I agree that some of those 80% of "defeats" will be claimant victories (but below the 20% payout threshold), and many of the 40% unreported will also be claimant victories IMO ..I agree that some of the failed cases also fail at the jurisdiction stage, and we never seem to get a figure taking that into account. Overall I have seen other stats where more claimants lose than win - but, yes, that includes Jurisdiction failures, which we've passed. The article is pretty much by Tim Hart and there's some self aggrandizing in there (including his name mainly coming up on the list of being the best ! ) However, maybe he is the best!.. The article isn't complete for sure because of what it misses out, and Uncitral cases too (which I assume have a similar win/lose ratio) .
Before I read some of the posts - I want to point out in my last post, that I didn't mean Brigitte Stern was bent, as I've just re-read it ! I mean we know her "bent" as in usual angle, inclination.. Hope that clears that up
left in this month....pressure mounting on "very near future" comment methinks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
But I did say one of not the.. Biggest , think there haven't been many over 1 billion but sure someone has the stats on that!!!
There was of course the $10bn UNCITRAL award in Yukos vs Russia in the last year
Flawed logic petty cash regarding 20% won rate, as you have not factored in the fact calunius have taken the case using a 70% cos win ratio , therefore they've already done much of the the due diligence regards discounting the 80% who would have lost!! So then , using your logic , they're basically saying that of the 20% left oxus have a 70% chance -not just of winning but of providing a return for calunius- large win , ratio is 70:30, remember they've seen the books and are privy to information we don't have!! Relax - win will be big enough to celebrate but targets of 50p upwards are very unlikely, as would be one of the biggest wins in history - ( not impossible ) but 10 bagger is reasonable !!
apologies - should say "Less than 20% claim counted as loss"
You got a Real Madrid shirt on at the Nou Camp..;o) Brilliant.. :o) not only the wrong end of the stick - but the other end of the tree ! If you look at those figures (thanks jeremiah - and we have had those figures on here before), the entire thing was compiled by Tim Hart and associates and is a bit of a plug for him, so may have a leaning (However they are hard facts) It is very sobering...and for those who continually get carried away with massive figures, here is the proof that ;payouts rarely reach anywhere near 100% - in fact Tim Hart gets payments down to 2% sometimes - that's TWO (and a few Zero payouts too). There is a real chance of losing this - and that includes a pyrrhic victory also (where the costs/ time taken and ultimate award size are not worth the fight).. The figures show that Tim Hart does have a devastating effect - and White and Case are top dogs, and that Stern probably has a hugely malignant effect on Claimants (although she is only referred to by a letter, but I think we know her MO and bent). So, it's as we were IMO - that's why (Camkite et al) although I don't think a massive win is out of bounds, I still believe it's more unlikely than likely on balance.. Two positive points from the document are that there are a fair amount of decent wins in there by companies, and the fact that 40% of case results are undisclosed (which you can probably deduce that these may be generally claimant wins).. So, on those Stats - where a whopping 80% of Claimants lose - that doesn't take into account 40% undisclosed and also the fact that getting less than 30% of original claim is also counted as a loss. So, on pure statistics alone, it does look rather like a 50/50 win/lose (not withstanding the fact that a >20% payout is classed as a defeat.
Ah crap, knew I knew the name from somewhere and didn't bother to check! I'll file that under the 'sobering' list! Less than 20% could still equate to $166m though, although a win for us would be preferable!
Before you get too excited Normi, sit down, take a deep breath, and then understand that Tim Hart is on the Uzbek's side, not ours! So, when he reports getting most cases down to very low levels, he is the winner!
Many thanks for that Jeremiah, I have seen several reports on ICSID cases but actually hadn't come across this one before so thanks for posting. As you say some reasons to stay sober! But, I also thought there were a few positives to take other than the non-disclosed awards and those settled out of court that may have yielded high awards if they weer followed through. Firstly, only two cases ever have a higher 'average claim (US$)' and realised $0, I found that encouraging (P.S: I assumed our 'average claim' to be $489m + £1,256m = $1,745m/2 = $872.5m). Secondly, if you look at section "6.3 Results by Damages Expert", Tim Hart has a pretty good record so I found that encouraging too. Also worth bearing in mind regarding this is that the report in pre-Yukos. I think it's safe to say that would be considered an outlier in this report too! IMO, there is plenty to be encouraged about following the Yukos verdict that of course isn't mentioned in the report. P.S: It'll come one day...