OTMP.L Share Chat (OTMP)

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1034162/onthemarket-takeover-by-costar-recommended-by-proxy-adviser-iss-1034162.html

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Let`s be having you.

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Pity he doesn't seem to think Fulcrum's share price is 'potty'

No he's too busy collecting

Christo! now that's interesting..

Could that be the same Harwood/Chris Mills bleeding Fulcrum Utility dry? or at least the share holders.

Talk about stealing from peter to please Paul.

Well predicted TaltBong and congratulations on your win here. 110p all cash offer arrangements seem to be all the rage. (1st Kin And Karta yesterday, and now this. )

Your shadowing of Chris Mills at Harwood looks pretty smart.

Was hoping for 125p but 110p is still a very decent win in a market where they are few and far between. After investing in OTMP with money made from Crestchic (thanks Mr Mills et al) I'm now looking to roll it over to another Harwood stock where Chris Mills thinks the share price is "potty" (like he did with OTMP) e.g. HSP or maybe AVG or maybe both. Good luck all.

£100m, 125p?

Being walked back up with low share turnover

Big buy, someone has faith

Unfortunately i think you are right.RM is the market leader so EVERY agent needs to be on their platform. If cost savings are required it's the add on such as OT that will get dropped.

Now that the 5 year lock in has expired it appears all those early adopters are slowly selling their shares, hence the repeated drop.

Such a shame as this is a well run company, has no debts and makes a profit. I first bought this at well over £1. Now 50% of that value and i'm still not inclined to re-invest.

Spot on and something will have to give...it won't be Rightmove unfortunately.

Https://propertyindustryeye.com/rightmove-defends-17-fee-hikes-as-estate-agent-says-no-option-but-to-pay/

Further to my posts below the TR1 today confirms that it was Harwood who bought another 1.23% of OTMP at 57p so that they now have 7.33% at an average price of 77p/share (I think) so still well above today's price.

I've been fortunate to have done very nicely following Harwood/Rockwood/Odyssean into numerous cracking winners and managed, so far, to avoid the few duds they've had.

Although I've listened to Chris Mills talk several times before about OTMP my interest was really grabbed by the interview he did with Paul Hill 9 days ago in which he acted a bit out of the ordinary for him when it came to OTMP. I had a feeling something was afoot so watched the inevitable SP drop closely and took a punt here before I did my first post below (which I'm really hoping was the bottom) and bought a few more since. As I'm using money made off the back of Harwood from Northbridge (Crestchic) I'm fairly relaxed but obviously hope the SP rises here over the last couple of days continue.

I'll see how tomorrow morning goes and maybe buy some more. It may turn into a long-term hold but I've learned from experience that holding onto Harwood stocks can really pay off. Good luck all.

…and institutions never get it wrong do they.

The value of OTM to its clients, estate agents, is ‘cost per lead’, how many good leads they provide compared to Rightmove and Zoopla.

If the public are not visiting the site then they are not producing enough quality leads and are an unnecessary cost. It is very expensive to get the public to change their habits, and because OTM do not have the whole of the market, i.e all the agents on the site it is an ineffective house hunting tool and not worth visiting. It is a vicious circle that renders OTM pointless and dispensable in a tough market.

And there we have it, two big buys just before close.

Schroders : own 7% (bought 6% at IPO when the SP was in the 140s),

Harwood : 6.1% bought when SP was high 60s low 70s

Downing: 3.2% when the SP in the 70s

All speak fairly bullishly about OTMP when interviewed. Downing, who bought when the agents came out of the 5 year lock-in, said they were surprised that there were not more shares available.

Well, there should be more shares available now and at a better price. If they are bullish you might think they'd be wanting to buy more and average down.

Results tomorrow?

Still researching this company and came across this recent recognition for what it's worth. Only a small piece of the puzzle with regards to investability but good to know the staff seem to be happy (according to the Sunday Times anyway)

https://propertyindustryeye.com/onthemarket-named-among-best-places-to-work-list-in-the-uk/

27.5% down in a month now. No doubt those agents that can, will start off loading these when there still worth something. Agents that can't sell just yet create a false SP and must be pig sick as they watch it keep coming down.

Rightmove putting their price up will not help OTM it will have the completely opposite effect...read my earlier posts and you will see how OTM missed an opportunity to actually challenge Rightmove, there no chance now, that ship has sailed I'm sorry to say.

I would suggest Chris Mills (whoever he is) is investing in a market he knows nothing about. It's not about giving shares away and getting agents on board, its about getting the public engaged and getting them off Rightmove and onto OTM. Until they can do that, which I very much doubt they can, then agents are paying for a second or in some cases third portal giving them pretty much no return.

If you were selling your house would you check the agent was on OTM, probably not, most of the public haven't even heard of it! Rightmove, then Zoopla and in third place OTM. And what happened to Boomin, that's a red flag, along with 'fish for homes', Prime Location (apparently still going), Globrix, and many, many others, over the years.

Rightmove had a huge first mover advantage, which they exploited brilliantly. In my opinion OTM will be the first cost agents will cut when the going gets tough, it certainly won't be Rightmove.

Its a weird one. Obviously the agents are selling off shares and have been for a while into an illiquid market. On top if that interest rates are poised for another hike and mortgages have been withdrawn again. There is still an acute shortage of property. Just watched Chris Mills (Harwood Invest) interview on vox. He is dumbfounded by the fall which is a bit worrying for a fund manager . Not only that he has been buying. There again he did even more worryingly take a punt on Wandico. On the other hand he has made some great investment most notably Niox and Avingtrans. So I thought I would have a look here and convincing as his argument is about how cheap OTMP is, there is no profit in arguing with market momentum. Definitely one to watch from a great distance probably, but one day could be kicking myself. On the other hand there are a lot better stocks than this that have also lost momentum. Too many to choose from

Down 20% in a month! That’s what happens when you offer a service nobody needs or wants. OTMP has no purpose and agents are beginning to realise that.

From their RNS 25th Jan
"The Group has maintained its operational cost discipline, and expects to report increased operating margins, with adjusted operating profit for the year expected to be between £4m and £4.5m (FY22: £2.7m).
Strong balance sheet maintained
OnTheMarket continues to have a strong balance sheet, with cash at 31 December 2022 of £10.4m and no borrowings."

They have more products to sell now also, which should, IMHO, double their profits for the current financial year

Hive....many thanks for this response. I actually think you are pretty spot on with all your observations and we are on the same page...and I very much take your point re the value point...with OTM just being some other tool for agents, it really is just an extra cost at the moment.

As Deborah Meaden would say - 'I won't be investing!'

grant...I have done a bit of research on this and I think OTMP had a chance, a really chance of making it, once upon a time…
They were initially formed by a mutual association of agents in 2015 to take on Rightmove, to break their monopoly. OTMP imposed an illegitimate 'one other portal' rule (mistake one), which they have since had to ditch, it was found at tribunal to be anti-competitive . This meant agents could initially only advertise their properties on one other portal, namely Rightmove or Zoopla. Regrettably, the agents involved rather bottled it and instead of taking on their principle target, they collectively decided to remove listings from Zoopla (mistake No. 2). All this did was to strengthen Rightmove’s position, as the only viable portal known to the public.
They spectacularly failed to achieve what they set out to do, and actually made the situation much worse for themselves. When OTMP first launched Rightmove’s SP was 207p, today it is 564p, and agents have never paid the portal more than they currently do! In fact, the best thing an investor could have done when OTM launched was buy shares in their main competitor, the one they were trying to get rid of!
This whole outcome really does render the current business as pointless, from everyone’s point of view. The last thing agents wanted was a third portal and that is exactly what they have ended up with. And, in reply to your point, no, OTM does not offer agents 'fantastic value', it only presents an extra cost to them, as they are still all on Rightmove, which they will now never ditch, otherwise they would have done so when they had the chance.
The problem is estate agency is a cottage industry with everyone running their own little business, and although some are probably very good at what they do, they generally are not business minded people. They have been lead into this like sheep, and it’s been a complete disaster from almost every angle.
Other than the lack of a real place in the market for this business, my other concern is that agents have been handed out tranches of shares for signing up (mistake No.3). The first issue with is, is the constant dilution of shares taking place, it would put any serious investor off.
The other issue is agents have had restrictions from selling these free shares imposed on them, for a period. Once this time elapses, I fear they will be selling them in the hoards. The shares owe them nothing and many will just cash in when the first opportunity presents.

Hivedoff...this is certainly one I've on the sidelines for ages with. It's just funny...some quite smart investing heads very bullish on it. Not the typical spiv institution but Chris Mills of Harwood and Andy Brough at Schroder's...usually listen quite hard at what they have to say. I was very bullish on it as although Rightmove has a network effect moat...it's also based on them being liked by the agents and it feels like OTM offers them potentially fantastic value. I'd have bought by my interpretation of last results was that they had not onboarded any new agents through H1 which really concerned me...

wish there was more debate on this board as find this a really interesting discussion...any thoughts from you?

These were trading higher two years ago than they are today...I see this potentially going the same way as Purplebricks. There just is not enough room in the market at present to sustain everyone and OTMP serves no discernible function for agents or the public. The acid test is if they were to go would anyone actually notice...I really don't think so.

Interesting that the spread remains 75 to 80.
The sold shares must have landed in safe hands.

When TecCRM contributes to full year earnings, I think we should get up over double eht's just been forecast for end Jan 2023 in Jan 2024.

https://total-market-solutions.com/2022/12/12-companies-to-follow-in-2023/

OTM software products are here, especially their cloud-based CRM.
https://expert.onthemarket.com/software/products/

It was connels that was sued

Interesting to note that Chancellors renewed with OTMP?
I thought they were not on with them after being sued by OTMP?
Or am I misremembering?
Need to check when I get time

Yes, a little underwhelming as you say.
Glanty will be a burden until the CRM can be released pushed.
CRM is where the future lies imo, with it being a fragmented market and good prospects.
But do I have the patience?

staff and marketing costs up by £2m !!

i do like OTMP and the CEO comes across well. However, i'm a little underwhelmed with today's figures.

Essentially revenues up £2m (good , double digit growth) but operating profit is down by £1m as costs have increased by £3m. This increase appears to be due to staff costs and marketing (c£m in total) and £500k on Glanty.

Cash is still good though and it is cash generative from operating activities.

So revenues up, cash being generated but due to acquisitions and other strategic initiatives profits are down.
Seems to be the same story we were told last year.

Ultimately it is the PBT figure that is key - not EBITDA or operating profit etc. PBT is positive at least but is very low and doesn't seem to be increasing any time soon

“…We will continue to deliver a cash genertive Business. We are very pleased with our progress. All we can do is be proud of what we do and do it differently…”

https://total-market-solutions.com/2022/06/onthemarket-plc-june-2022/

There is so much to go for in the fragmented CRM markets via Glanty and Teclet I am surprised it is taking so long to push forward with those.
As for the actual portal, it is improving albeit slowly.
Boomin was a busted flush, not going to take market share like some doom mongers were forecasting.
Adverts still lacklustre. OTMP needs to engage whoever did PB and Boomin adverts for some Ooomph.

decent results - we already knew the numbers.
My slight concerns are that the number of agents moving from free/discounted deals to fully paid contracts seems quite low. If we are c10% of RM and give these agents free shares i would have thought this should be a no-brainer. The conversion rate seems quite low IMHO.

Also marketing costs - increased 80% this year to c£10m. This is a lot of money to spend to increase revenues by 20%. RM and Zoopla are clearly market leaders and have deep pockets.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/984802/onthemarket-plc-delighted-with-full-year-results-984802.html

mark my words the market is cooling and when it does agents will move form RM to OTM

YE figures until 31/1/22 have been announced and things look ok - revenue grew by a third and are now over £30m although profit at £2.6m is a little disappointing considering the H1 performance was really good - assume much of the H2 gross profit went into the TV advertising campaign.

With a healthy cash position and a not excessive valuation there is a lot to like here.

My main concern is that RM is going from strength to strength - it recently announced excellent results and the SP has risen accordingly. So 2021 was clearly a good year for house selling.
The shift of getting free/discounted agents to move to fully paying customers appears to be moving at a slower pace than i was hoping.
Having said that if revenues can keep increasing by c 20%p.a the profits will follow.

another try replace * with v-o-x-m-a-r-k-e-t-s.

replace the * with **********

Agree with everything you say shandy.
Perhaps Glanty needed extra investment? They have not really explained what exactly Ganty brings to the party (unless I missed it?)
On the whole, my reading is that with Glanty's development team, there will be further products offered. Teclet seems like a hidden offering with little to no marketing. Unless I have missed it (I no longer get the property related magazines)
And Skipa, co-developed with Hunters either belongs to Hunters or Glanty, another this that needs to be clarified. If it belongs to Glanty, then this could be a very serious CRM to offer agents.
Meanwhile: https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/onthemarket-revenues-are-ahead-of-market-consensus-18e9fd9

i do like OTMP and i think their business model is far more sustainable than RM, however, i am a little concerned by both the last 2 financial updates - H1 and this week.
Last YE profits were great at £2.3m. H1 seemed to grow on this with £2.1m adjusted operating profit but actual operating profit at almost zero.
What is adjusted operating profit - is it EBITDA?? The biggest adjustment appears to be free shares offered to new estate agents. If so the number of new estate agents moving onto paid tariffs is quite low. This doesn't tally IMHO.
Then H2 was essentially forecast to breakeven?? Why? I though OTMP was fast growing i.e double digit growth.
I assume much of this is due to the current TV adverts, so marketing spend has increased in H2, but marketing spend is a standard cost so this should be budgeted and accounted for out of gross profits surely.
A fast growing company should not be expecting to breakeven in a period and then announce how well they are doing when the results are now slightly positive.
Still think this has potential and in comparison to RM is undervalued however the current PE is quite high so earnings must grow each year to justify this.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/971949/onthemarket-confident-earnings-for-the-year-will-be-ahead-of-market-expectations-971949.html

Thing is, I bought these about three years ago when I saw a significant increase in leads come from OTM.
It has been a slow journey for shareholders and things will only improve. Agents are really getting ****ed off with RM and if they finally get their act together and leave, then OTM will get a major uplift.
Question is..... https://youtu.be/BN1WwnEDWAM

Thanks.

5p spread is normal.

Hey Guys. The spread on this stock is too much 128.25 to buy and 123 to sell! Can we buy on a Tighter spread? Thanks

12 Companies to follow in 2022 from @TMsreach

https://total-market-solutions.com/2021/12/12-companies-to-follow-in-2022/

Finally the beast stirs

A lot of sells and the price didn't budge an inch.
Very strange.

Let's see if this works.
https://youtu.be/QLwqF7yJ6HY

another positive interview from CEO on v o x markets last week - link never works.

All seems to be going well so hopefully H1 results will reflect this.

Need that to translate into share price increase!