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The ironic thing is that faceless Lanstead, you know the ones that have a website with no individual names of sales agents, management or directors are probably reading this and laughing their socks off at us all as we speculate their position.
IF they were going to declare every 1% then they should have done so when they sold another 35m shares, dropping through 20% in the process, we all know they have probably sold 200m/300m shares as the total volume since 28th December has been 1.6b.
Frankly I do not know how they get away with it.
I suspect ORR management do not want to upset them as clearly they find the funding arrangement fantastic !
Imo Tim needs to show some teeth and put pressure on Lanstead to be honest and update the markets promptly in an orderly fashion, that they agreed in the terms of the deal.
Contracts have been signed and i wouldn’t think (but who knows with these ‘loan sharks’ if they’ve put in some clause).
Report Lanstead to the FCA to breeching TR1 notification rules.
As it is it’s clearly not forming a fair & ordinary market.
From the ‘Lanstead will declare every 1%’ interview on the 1st August -
Tim Blythe: ‘… can Lanstead actually benefit though by the share price being lower than the benchmark price rather than going higher?’
Bob Smeeton: ‘Lanstead make more money the higher the share price is. They’ve got no incentive at all for the share price to decline so they very much see themselves as aligned with the long term shareholders. They will do well when Oriole does well and Oriole will receive more money should the share price do well…’
I’ve tried to do some modelling to see how the deal could work for Lanstead. Obviously, I have no idea what Lanstead are doing but I have made the following assumptions: Lanstead sell an equal amount of their allotted shares every day for the 24 month duration of the agreement. Considering the subscription shares and the value payment shares and assuming 252 trading days each year (21 per month) then that’s pretty much £2M shares to be sold each day, as estimated previously by others. I’ve also assumed that the average sale price for these shares in the 21 days leading up to each settlement day is the same as the 20 day VWAP on the settlement day. Ignoring fees or any other costs then -
At benchmark price 0.2533p:
Share sales (21 trading dates x 2M): £106,386
Payment to ORR: £73,625
Lanstead profit: £32,761
At 50% benchmark price 012665p
Share sales: £53,193
Payment to ORR: £36,812.50
Lanstead profit: £16,380.50
At 200% benchmark price 0.5066p:
Share sales: £212,772
Payment to ORR: £147,250
Lanstead profit: £65,522
So, based on my assumptions, Lanstead monthly profit is £32,721 at benchmark price and, like the monthly payments to ORR, that figure increases / decreases with percentage change from the benchmark price.
I adjusted my model to see what the minimum number of sales Lanstead would have to make to cover the monthly payments to ORR. With my other assumptions remaining the same then they would have to sell around 1.384M shares each day for this. Gives an idea of how many shares that they have to retain to cover future payments and how many that they could sell whenever it suits them.
I had previously thought that they might try and manipulate they price to maximise their revenue from share sales and minimise monthly payments. I’m not sure that could be practically achieved or even worthwhile.
Perhaps Lanstead and our interests are well aligned. All we know is that by 28 December they had sold 202.4M shares. Equivalent of 2.024M per trading day up to that point (100 trading days) which is in line with my model.
The above is based on my understanding, is unchecked and could be nonsense.
Its really frustrating that you wait 2 month for news get a 10% rise then its wiped out with about 30 k worth of sells over 2 days even though there were just as many buys. It makes you wonder how this will make a good rise and sustain it for any amount of time.
Thanks Lanstead !!
ORR has never made any sense whatsoever. I would expect consistent inflows as the project is derisked.
The post by Schiehallion showing the cash input from the Lanstead deal explains why Lanstead are doing all they can to quell the share price rise, how many funding deals have Lanstead completed where they have had to pay MORE than the benchmark level, I can tell you hardly any.
No wonder they refuse to declare their position, if they did, as mentioned previously, their selling was at the higher end of expectations it would encourage bulls and they would be in deep dung for the remained of the agreement.
All one can do is buy these shares around current levels, the floor appears to be well in around the .25p level now, we all know how little it took by way of volume kick to move the SP to .57p in late January, it can happen again and will IMO.
Not taking too long to get the SP back down after a rise yesterday. No surprise there.
Do you mean - Unknown* ?
Jolly good!
Eyups...blue
@cekim, I don’t have the brains to work it out but I use tradingview which has a nice vwap indicator which I’ve been using to update a spreadsheet. I think Oriole should have received around £395k from Lanstead so far. I’m assuming that the settlement date is on the 18th of the month and have used the closing 20 day vwap from the previous trading day -
18 Sep - £32,380 (RNS 29/9 gives first payment as £0.03M - so correct ball park))
18 Oct - £26,014
18 Nov - £24,473
18 Dec - £48,860
18 Jan - £65,690
18 Feb - £112,777
18 Mar - £84,583
There should be some info in the final results which I’m hoping will be released this week.
Gold spot price $2191
Junior space is going to attract a weight of long money at some point
Since Q1-2021, the Company has completed four phases of diamond drilling at the Project for a total of 6,685.40m in 54 holes.
During the next field season Oriole will be drilling more than the last 4 phases combined. 3 months before the wet season starts so they are getting cracking soon.
We have a significant amount of results on the way, plus soil sampling and trenching at Mbe , hopefully followed up by a drill programme towards the back end of 2024.
This share has some seriously significant potential.
With Cameroon being greenfield exploration , the risk reward ratio is greater than that of a normal junior explorer. Oriole are bustin’ down the door in Cameroon.
£100mcap is achievable which puts the share price around 3p
Time to load up.
Why have the BOD not declared how much they have received from Lanstead then someone with brains could work it out. Nit me. Lol
I am convinced Lanstead have sold a fair number of shares to get the price down from the .40p range which looked pretty secure from the intra day high of .57p on 22nd January.
Taking a look at the volume since their last TR1 there have now been 1.6b shares traded in total, around 45% of the issued capital, my bet the reasoning for not declaring is they do not want to show their hand as a high number of shares sold by them (say 250m/300m) will encourage the bulls, that is the last thing they want.
I do feel they should be reminded of their declaration responsibilities nonetheless, just another AIM anomaly.
Really enjoyable video, liking the extra targets that have been identified by the recent survey.
Would have been nice if Tim was asked about Lanstead and given an update in that department.
From a technical perspective this is perfectly poised for a move back into the late .30p's region.
It can only be a matter of time before a serious offer for the company comes in given the progress made in Cameroon, as I stated before, what major or mid cap can ignore a large scale new gold trend in a virgin country. They can't !
I would suggest Barrack are favourites.
Its taken a few years longer than I expected, but we will get there, this is an amazing long term hold. I just keep building my position knowing the board are slowly building a mega company.
Agree but can it come together in the next tax year please
Post Bob / Stratex, and the Cameroon entry things are beginning to come together here.
Eventually people will realise just what the potential here is. It might have taken some time but bit by bit it is all coming together
This is all coming together nicely. When the penny drops, literally, this will fly!
my reckoning on the back of *** packet just this one resource:
according to the mre, bakassi zone 1 contains 5.1 million tonnes grading 2.30 grammes per tonnes of gold, for approximately 375,000 ounces of gold in the jorc inferred resources category
375000 x £2,000 (per ounce) is $750m, if you say 10% its still $75m, orr is a ripe apple waiting to be plucked by one of the big boys soon...
Really positive RNS, huge potential