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This is the only reason I haven’t sold today. The new Freenome relationship is the most significant thing this company has achieved in the last 4 years since I have been invested here. The price for diagnostics was disappointing, but the ongoing relationship with services is highly significant. Freenome is a world leading player. They generate many thousands of samples in their diagnostic processes and have the potential to significantly scale beyond their minimum contract size with Oncimmune. At this price the antigen library alone is worth many times the current share price and I expect someone to notice that if the price stays around here for long. The big question, is why didn’t Freenome buy the whole business? Big holders have been patient, but will want to realise value and currently, the market cap (£13m) is the same as what they achieved for Diagnostics, which generated £1m of revenue. I expect to see management change and cost cutting and a clear path to value realisation in the near future. GLA
Grumpyfarmer, good post!
Wrt "why didn’t Freenome buy the whole business?".
In my view because it was not for sale and Freenome would not have offered what it would take (big gap). Why? The big holders have paid a lot more in than the recent share price, and will surely - assuming they are still confident about the future direction - be looking for a multiple, so I can assume it would only be for sale at very minimum 200 p. Even that would not impress the big holders. Most likely buyer going forward will be one of the top 10 pharma outfits. If the big holders lost faith, that's a very different situation.
Let's hope indeed they have not lost faith. I noticed a change in the investor list recently. I wonder who has sold all their shares to dump the price by 50% today.....probably a large holder with small faith...
Rooster, clearly some serious panic selling and investors taking losses!!
In really, lots of smaller transactions adding up to around 1.45 million shares if this site has accurate data. It's only around 2% of all shares as far as I can work out, but let's see today if this continues. I feel the big holders, indeed will hold, as the company moves forward with hope (but no guarantees obviously)
The technical chart , shows a confirmed downtrend for 2 years , with lower peaks and troughs. More recent price break downwards, was occasioned by break of the historic sp, low of 35.5. A sp, making a new all time high is positive, but a sp, making a new all time low is not positive, for this equity. The current rise in the sp, would probably be described as a dead cat bounce .
Thanks Stargate,
I personally don't put much emphasis on chart reading for this type of company. It's early stage, IP driven, working towards profitability and market development. Fundamentals - successful growth or not - will drive this => RNS/news. Right now it could go up or down, semi randomly.
Either you believe they can make it or you don't.
Been watching this co from a distance for a while, looking to get into cancer and diagnostics still one of the biggest health tech areas. Couldn’t believe selling off the core assets of the business to focus on being a service business, really? Even if it works how valuable can it really become? Weak management team, calls for them to stand down/sacked are understandable and perhaps justified. Appear to be many better opportunities in the market currently.
WB, good luck with the other opportunities then!
The management needs to improve comms and clarify the strategy no doubt.
It may be as simple as "volume=vanity, profit=sanity".
ImmunoInsights clearly has high margin and with many opps for IP generation, licence deals etc. Most testing businesses end up having wafer thin margins over time. Becomes volume businesses.
The management team could probably have sold either of the two, so need to explain better.
In my view this was the right move in terms of selling assets , albeit disappointing. The geopolitical circumstances starting with Covid made it very difficult to penetrate some of the markets they were eyeing up like China, Russia, Spain, South America etc. Especially when the business doesn't have boots on the ground, I can imagine complying with the regulatory environment either direct or through partners would have been difficult and coupled with lots of overheads. Tough grind that was for a business of ONC size. It makes sense to hand that to a company with global presence and focus on the services side which is highly lucrative especially at scale.
I am sticking with this one here becauae I think that we are not far off from seeing a decent/healthy balance sheet soon which will guaranteed turn the tide on this stock. Frustrating is that its taking longer. But I really believe we are at the cusp of a turning point. With the PI that ONC has today and the amount of top quality customers and Contracts that are being signed the foundations are there. Now it's just time to execute and be prepared for higher volumes coming through. The markets is huge and growing and ONC is a leader in the space. The asset sale seems to have been part of a strategy since July last year so its not something that was done on the whim. CFO in my view needs to go. Not so sure about CEO. This man has incredible experience and credentials that are solid and has always made a great impression when speaking in interviews. The company needs to communicate clearly to the investor community what can be expected here. And then deliver on it. At the moment it's all a bit fluffy and I cannot measure success against fluff.
Rooster, I am on the same page as you overall - worth hanging in here!
I don't have enough info to assess if they should have sold ImmunoInsights instead, but the CEO is no fool, neither is the broader board or the big investors. Just check out who they are and their track record.
There is a problem with comms of numbers in particular + now I feel we need clear info on the forward strategy. Is there a CFO problem? Has the new chair not brought anything to the table? Lots of questions and I am sure we will get clarity going forward. All investors - small or large - should starting pushing for this. If some management changes are needed, so be it, but it's incredibly difficult for outsiders/small shareholders to really understand who the weakest links are, if any.
The reality is that most people can relate to a test business, whereas very few will understand what an IP / service business can do.
"Not so sure about CEO. This man has incredible experience and credentials."
Really? What experience?
As far as I can see this is his first stab at being a CEO and share price has reliably tanked throughout his tenure, but credit where credit's due, he's good at selling jam tomorrow
Looking at his CV, there is some very credible track record and I believe that he comes across an intelligent individual. I don't think this current point in time is the end all be all for the company but rather the beginning of a strategy they have implemented over time.
I think we need to look at the next 6 month and those will be very revealing. 2more reports. From here on out I think they will be in a much better place.
Unless you are right and I was blind to the fact that there is a bunch of highly qualified idiots, that don't know the first thing about business. I somehow doubt that.
Not idiots by any stretch, they are very adept at relieving us of our money
It's in everyone's interest that the business performs. Especially those running it as they are the most invested. I disagree with you.
This is not a short term investment. I think We will see this bird take off in the near term. My position is to keep holding until we are airborne and beyond.
Faced with the facts as they are, I’m going to call it…
You’re a plant, either that or you are the CEO himself
Either way, ramping a duff stock like this can and does financially ruin people. It’s not fair
Good luck on your journey C_Schmitt.
I am an average man who is facing the same facts as yourself. I am just looking at them through a more optimistic lens.
C_schmitt; if you sold in panic, too bad. It's only a gain/loss when you sell.
In general don't trade in AIM or early stage companies unless you can afford lose everything! Simple.
I am also holding despite sitting on big paper losses. Why? Because I still have faith in the IP and its exploitation.
Rooster is not ramping. He is just hopeful we will see real positive resultsin the future. In any case, those who fall for empty ramping should not trade here or anywhere else.
Not sure where I stated that I sold at all, let alone at a loss …
Apologies C_Schmitt, I inferred that from the ramper claims against Rooster and the bitterness shining through. Give it time then; this what to be expected from small companies: some make it, some don't - it's a journey. Good luck.