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Hardly any volume these days. I have picked a few more over the past week, but I guess most people who wanted to run for the door have disappeared. Many hloyal olders will sit on huge paper losses including the main, anchor shareholders, who clearly are riding this out with the eye on the end game. So much for loyalty...but with patience this will come good.
I personally would prefer more updates from the company. I was wondering if anybody went to any company meetings (e.g. AGM) and/or have been in direct discussions with the management? It seems to be their communication - both quality and frequency - needs to be improved.
I have started buying here. Only small numbers. Using my free ii trading allowance in my TXP ‘yolo’ account. That way I only add a few each month! Picked some more up earlier this week.
I see a climb to 40p on next news as easily achievable which is a good rise from this basement once the market sees the revenues.
Usual caveats
Trek
Trek, I guess you meant to post the below here??
I agree with you all round, except wrt take over. The large shareholders (as you can see on the ONC website) are serious, patient investors and will not agree to a sale when they all paid almost 10 times the current price. I simply cannot see it happening.
Positive trading and a jump may only be seen 6-12 months from now, but given the IP they have this is now a bargain where any additional top line revenue pretty much goes to the bottom line. I'm drip adding whenever I can to lower my average. It may well be the bottom: if you try large buy orders, the price firms very quickly. Suggesting only really small holders willing to sell.
"Started buying a few. It looks like the bottom is in now. Has revenues, just sold assets to complete financial restructure. Could climb to 40p once market sees revenues for high margin immunodiagnostics business. 80% returns, 7 top 10 Pharma’s as clients for its huge databank, probably the biggest antigen databank in world! It looks for responses saving pharma loads of money and time on clinical trials.
If it doesn’t bounce imo it’ll be taken over as an easy bolt on for an R&D biotech.
Debt was a problem but sale of its lung cancer screening business has addressed the balance sheet but it hasn’t recovered yet as the market isn’t sure of the cash flow. So it’s a high risk play but that gives it a good chance of a hard bounce if the sales pipeline is there.
I don’t think it will take much to move it but punt money only!
Usual caveats
Trek"
Hi DrPatience,
Everything has its price. Those same shareholders agreed to EarlyCDT lung sale for 13m! I doubt that’s even getting our money back on what was one of the biggest phase 3 trials ever!
The antigen databank has a huge value especially now with AI technology. The base data that ONC hold is probably the best in the world. It needs someone to introduce a predictive element to it in tandem with quantitative & qualitative responses.
50m would be a snip for ONC and that may see some investors willing to sell.
You are right that there is no relationship between the mcap and company value here. London is useless, it’s based purely on buying v selling algorithms which are ‘easily’ manipulated. There is nothing in the price for a hold. SP’s move wildly on a small % of trades in relation to mcap. The market gets paid for trading not investors holding. But it can move both ways!
Hence it takes a bid to accelerate value and ONC is a company that can be bought, bolted on and used to drive a big pharma forward whilst paying for itself with its services.
It’ll most likely be snapped up and rapidly brought into the new AI world!
I intend to keep adding as well as I can free up funds and really should stay quiet as like you say just a few buys could send this to 30’s in a blink!
Usual caveats
Trek
From GS on email just now….
“ The global pharmaceutical sector has around $700 billion at its disposal to acquire other companies and invest in research and development, according to Goldman Sachs Research. That war chest will be important as patents expire for some of the industry's blockbuster drugs.
“The pharmaceutical industry will need growth, and at this time they are sitting on a tremendous amount of cash,” says Asad Haider, head of the healthcare business unit in Goldman Sachs Research. “The baseline expectation is that there is going to be continued M&A.”
In addition, he says there's progress in the development of new treatments, and there are signs that surgical procedure volumes are on the rise. Meanwhile, MedTech is expected to be the industry's best performing subsector in the second half of the year, according to a midyear investor survey conducted in conjunction with Goldman Sachs' 44th annual Global Healthcare Conference.”
Like I said ONC can bolt on to pretty much any R&D. I had LID & HZD as takeovers, same sector and weeks apart! ONC will make it 3 I think.
Usual caveats
Trek
Meant to say we are due a trading update. Should be next week.
Hopefully results in a change in sentiment as it will also be one year since Alister joined us!
Usual caveats
Trek
Trek, as much as I hope you are right, I think trading may only significantly improve during the second half of the year. Biotech/ pharma companies have been holding back with their investments, but it should pick up.
I would have expected a lot more director buys, but in reality I don't think they actually care too much about the current share price (still a wrong attitude in my view; a low SP is never good), as the end game is a sale of the whole company. This will be the large investors' game and selling for say £50million would be seen as a huge failure.
For the patient investor, it will pay off.