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Impecunious2, we live and learn, I'm sure we all have moments we look back on and think if only. I'm sure it wouldn't be any fun if every day we were making money...
We have to trust the bod. What else can we do? I think brad, being a geologist won’t over pay for a marginal asset if they start looking at new licenses. Talca still sticks in my craw.
Also Louis has shown good money management with the placing proceeds and not jacked up fixed overhead costs which is a blessing. I couldn’t stomach another placing in the teens.
I'm in the if we are to be taken out camp it will be 12 to 18 months time. I can't see it happening before then myself I just think it is too early and I don't think Apta data is enough for the majors to commit to a buy out currently.
I would imagine they will want more data from the other areas before committing but if I was offered 60p today i would take it. I do think omi's 20pc share would be worth more than 60p but it's very much a jam today or tomorrow discussion.
I also understand what Sotalo is saying with the deal that is already in place but there are many variables to consider such as what's actually proven in the ground at the time, the share price at the time, how far along we are with regards to the deal, price of gold, projected pog, cost of extraction, profit margins etc.
I also would like to see Omi maybe have another licence somewhere activated. I think Anza is going to be a great egg but I think having another licence maybe gives a bit of leverage to them if the majors take out Anza.
I'm sure the board are aware of all this though and are working on things in the background. I do remember them saying that there wasn't sufficient value in the market currently so maybe they are waiting for the right licence to come up at the right price and not just taking something up for the sake of it. Going to say it. Trust in Brad.
Hi, Wayne
If it's any comfort to you, I was one of those who failed to sell GGP at 34p, and have therefore since been reduced to selling some at 20 pence, to buy OMI and MTR. I fear my username is very well-deserved.
I believe that is a key element to investing, alongside patience, to take time to step back and assess the situation as whole, to remind yourself of the fundamentals, why you invested, and to reassess your position if things have changed. The fundamentals and strength of investment, as i see it, are far stronger here today than when i invested nearly 3 years ago, and can't see any other junior sitting in such a strong position as OMI. I'm excited for the future here
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, I remember selling GGP at 3.4p and thinking I was a genius, the rest is history. This is such an opportunity given what we already know with so much more to come. We are at the start of the journey and whilst newsflow has been slow recently due to covid, we could get a glut of news any day. The progress we have made since the first drill arrived has been remarkable with an additional rig on every set of results. Accumulation time currently, bargains to be had if you take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
Hi, Wayne @15.57
I'm with you on this, one lesson of GGP is that predators should move early. I can remember when the company was valued at the same as my mother's house, which was £450k. I suggested to her that she should sell the house and buy GGP; but she didn't seem too keen on the idea, possibly because she didn't fancy living in a cardboard box, aged eighty-five. This lack of derring-do among the old is truly lamentable.
Any buyout would be relative to what they ultimately find and deem our value to be. Current drill results have been very positive but consider where the sp may be when we eventually get to La Cejita. Whilst Newmont would get 80% anyway, it depends what our MCAP is at that time were they to wait.
Another explorer we are all familiar is GGP, and whilst they are the holy grail of explorers I remember at one point their MCAP was approximately £1.4 Billion. As an example 20% of that would be £280 Million. Do newmont want to pay that then when they could pay maybe £100 Million now, especially with the price of Gold forecast to raise considerably. Its all ifs buts and maybes, truth is none of us know what Newmont or Agnico are thinking. The future is bright for us whichever way you look at it.
I just don’t understand why Newmont would offer 60p or 4 times the price when they will getn80% anyway? This seems one f the the least likely companies to be taken over especially at a whopping premium imho
I agree that a takeover offer near term does seem unrealistic, but like you say whilst the majority of us are here for many multiples of current sp, following your example of 60p per share that would still be a healthy return on your investment if buying at current levels. Happy to hold here long term and accumulate, whichever way you look at it, we are way too cheap at the moment and a massive correction is way overdue.
I wouldn't expect a takeover offer tomorrow but its not impossible to see one in say 18 months.
It depends on how quickly things evolve. They can run things to completion - but if they were to find 5m+ oz that leaves Omi fully carried with 20% of an asset potentially worth billions. Lets say in that situation Omi would be worth 300-500m, so something like £1.5-2.5/share. It would therefore seem to make sense to buy them out before you got to that stage. (If the share price were ever to start moving up Omi may also find it easier to issue new shares, raise capital, and get involved in other projects, but lets ignore that for now.)
People got upset when I said it last time - but realistically, if Newmont said "60p to clear off today" I suspect most would take it - even if the 20% through to completion could be worth say £2. (I'm a shareholder, obviously I'd like a lot more - but as an example.) The issue is the window - because if they start proving up reserves with good expectation to find more the price would start to rise. So it may not happen because events run too quickly.
The project has to be of sufficient size and proved up before either partner would consider a takeover. Thats my take.
Besides, they will own 80% of the project anyway if they take the 2018 agreement to its conclusion.
how do you make that out?
A takeover is not on the cards for months. For Agnico to buy out the project, they would need a resource of at least 1-3m oz’s. For Newmont that would be 5m oz+
Yep, 79 seems quite a distance from the next nearest hole, 73. I expect brad would want to keep drilling until he has sufficient data to put out at least a 500k resource. Anything less seems pointless. Obviously this is contingent on the partners wishing to carry on drilling.
Karl, I remember that too. But it was only if the high grade gold continued down dip or could be proven to extend further on strike. Neither seems to be proved so far but 079 gives some hope of the most southerly area adding a significant amount, if I've got the location right. Lets hope ageos will update after the next results.
Ageos, once indicated a possible resource of 500k oz (unless I’m mistaken). It was a while ago.
Ageos, thanks a lot. I get the drift of your post and guess the APTA resource is not much different from the MDA Report range of 165-274K oz Au based on drill results so far. Will be interesting to see what the next set of assays produce.
I've been investing since your intheno days and those amazing MARL resource estimates so have a lot to thank you for. CB
RSI moving above 55 with moving averages moving north too. if we manage to close above 19.25, we could see 24p next. Looking good in expectation of further results which I believe could produce better results (not that past results were not good) as the first drilling at this campaign has produce valuable guidance with respect to the nature and distribution of the mineralisation at APTA which should have permitted the current drilling to be more efficiently targeted. I added more yesterday and today.
That's more like it Sotalo. Hopefully we can all enjoy a nice rise over the next few weeks.
This is a bit more like, may it keep going!
Yesterdays move was very positive on increasing late volumes, the chart looks as bullish as it has been for an age with 3 daily upside candles in a row, indicating a clear trend reversal.
The sector seems to be returning to favour with other explorers moving back up from beaten down positions, I would not rule out 25p-30p here over the next month.
Has webby bought in :)
He said he doesn’t mind paying extra lol. Can you wait until 25p please?
Finally moving North and most likely impossible to
buy when everybody wants to do the same.
That's AIM. I filled my boots below 17 when the shorters
were hoping for 15 or 8. Investors were smarter and did not wait.
Volume of buys was over 3x the volume of sells today, so we had a nice rise. It looks like people may be bailing out of crypto and getting into miners now, so hopefully this trend will continue