Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Thanks Safy good and interesting link
If it is correct that the latest cash pot of funding is going to an overseas country yet again
Well quite frankly me dear I dont give a damme. All it does is highlight a political agenda.
It also shows that they have faith in a test originating from a country that created the infection to start with. So a big winner all round for Great Britain
A full proof test and building a new trade a relationship deal in the process
I'm a bit thick but even I know that staff need to trained. Having said that after looking at hearing some of the bbc presenters of late. Then all they will need is a script and computer screen . You may even be able to get them to do head stand. Live on air
If we think bigger picture our future depends on the swift detection and isolation of a multitude of future viruses etc. The ability to produce rapid instant tests without the need for labs will be the future. We’ve been lucky this time given the mortality rate is low, any future pandemic could be a lot worse, prediction and rapid tests are the key
https://formlabs.com/uk/covid-19-response/covid-19-rapid-diagnostics/
good tbh dont know that much about them in terms of size etc but worry government will be persuaded by the likes of roche etc to buy some random test. however as we are gov funded then i am 100% sure we will be ok but worry about that more than avacta
The answer for big pharma is they would just buy companies for the rights like companies like odx, small change even at £2 if the potential is there
Rob
Your worry about big pharma beating everyone is valid.
Simple answer for you, Mologic are the equivalent to big pharma in the diagnostic world. They are not a Mickey Mouse company.
facts are what we need. i'm heavily in odx but often wonder whether to get avacta as well. a lot of people piled in there and they are very defensive - i will happily buy both if the reasoning is right - i'm not into this odx versus avacta.
whilst i dont know as much about avacta as i do odx, i do wonder if they have massive manufacturing ready and will be the wonder test. then i think have they gone through any validation etc that we have eg ce mark etc. if not then surely they are a long way off as we know it takes ages. or are they secretly being fast tracked. for now i will stay with odx as we know all the facts from now to well into next year but happy to be convinced on avacta too.
my main worry is neither will win and some knock of chinese company or big drug company will come out with something tbh
i think the reality is theres enough demand for every company
Aframaman and the other chap who assumed I’ve got stung on AVCT. .
No I have not got stung by Avacta. If anything going from from 127 to 70p on ODX is getting stung. But I’m still here.
What I post regarding Avacta is facts. And to date not one person has been able to prove me wrong.
Mologic have a 40m capacity. What is Avacta capacity?
Why would CEO cash in early if he could 2x or 3x his money in 30 days or less?
How can Avacta be ahead if nobody has seen their test?
Yes it is ‘our test’ we have an agreement with Mologic.
When we have a presentation with large parts dedicated to Mologic test, how can we pretend it’s anything otherwise?
If it was ‘other’ companies capacity then how hard is it to write Avacta or other Antigen LFT on the graph?
BAMS selling for research, the government are fully stocked up with PCR type lab tests. GDR also have a PCR lab test which is gold standard but getting sales traction is incredibly difficult borderline impossible.
People have no idea how these testing rigs are set up, you can’t just chop and change tests. If it’s not broke don’t try to fix it comes to mind.
Mologic and ODX are not too proud to admit that when a product fails to get to traction like our Elisa we admit it. Mologic are favouring antigen LFT development over Saliva Elisa. Yes I’ve researched that too. Because antigen LFT makes lab test redundant.
End of the day it’s about making money for pi’s. I don’t believe these first round of gov tests are Mologic, in fact I’m convinced they are not. If people want to question my impartiality then that’s the second negative thing I have said regarding ODX. However my hope is that from the UK we are one of a few that make it to the finish line very soon.
I know our TT can be done in 4 weeks worst case a tad more. I got that from ODX directly, again that’s research. Mologic said CE mark in Oct, we are now in November. The CE mark should be very close.
The government is buying Innova LFT which provides a function but fail miserably at everything else... but they are still better than what is out there. I don’t expect perfection but I do expect Mologic will have a test ready very soon.
People under estimate Mologic capabilities in the LFT space and in my eyes wrongly assume that somehow ODX will forgo the chance with Mologic and settle for second. I will add on more thing, if Avacta TT takes 3-4 months, that would take us to March before we have a test. We wouldn’t be trying to get to 2m in April without a test to make. Infact ODX don’t need to hire anybody till early next year because we don’t need them. We need staff now.
Staff overhead is over 200k a month at ODX with 100 staff, at 200 staff it’s close to 500k. Please logically think about this, IF we were going to wait for Avacta then are we prepared to throw away over £1m and have staff twiddling thumbs and wait till March next year.
That logic just doesn’t make any sense.
Okehurst - agree it is a no lose for odx. Plan to top up tomorrow. Seems like reasons for the drop are mix of general market sentiment, an ii selling down a bit and perhaps a reduction in confidence amongst some holders with respect to antibody sales. None of these is a good reason for it to stay at these relatively low levels.
With regard to antigen lfdsthe purchase of non sovereign lfds in the medium term I think the signs are that the govmt wants high quality and extensive sovereign supply. These short term foreign supplies serve an interim purpose of helping to quell r and also get the system of administering such tests running smoothly on a large scale to ensure that when domestic supply is available it can be brought to bear rapidly.
The government have sourced antigen lateral flow from foreign businesses as they want them now. Doesn’t mean they won’t source odx when available it’s just about timing. We know odx are now more government linked through RTC so once the test is done I am sure it I’ll get sold. The positive to take away is confirmation that government is pursuing the lateral flow, 15 min results, this is new in regards now pretty much a done deal at this stage.
Just have to wait until developing done, manufacturing started and let’s reflect odx and Mologic are two of the best in the industry you would want on your side doing this .
MB,
I think your onto something with the swab test from Mologic and if the self administered LFT is not ready then we win either way - also agree Avacta’s self administered test is not ready today.
Mologic swob via a medical professional onto an LFT, think that is possible but they would have to pass phase 3 Porton Down trials.
If Mologic do pull off the ‘ holy grail ‘ of the self administered LFT -that will be some feat -either way as you say ODX enjoy orders - same as/if / when Avacta get over the line then ODX secure sales from this source.
It’s a no lose situation for ODX.
Safy regarding BAMS it has been on sale for research use for several weeks and validation for professional use is expected shortly. Regarding ODX I am a holder but get irritated when people refer to ' our test' which seems like a false sense of propriety ownership of a test devised by someone else. Its also part of a closed mindset we see from some on the board when its clear from Colin himself that he is happy to help with whatever the government prioritises.
As for Merchant hes kind of been posting a mix of hard facts and inflammatory distortions on the Avacta board IMHO. I do happen to agree with him and other posters here who note that a tech transfer to odx from mologic should be relatively quick. And from what we know of Mologics progress the test is likely to be on sale pre Christmas. Avactas BBI tech transfer may be here tomorrow or it could be several more weeks. It is to be followed by parallel professional and user validations which are expected to take 2 and 4 weeks respectively. So the likelihood according to these timelines is we will know its performance in December and get sales fron december or January.
Selling some shares to buy a house means nothing...
"Following the Sale, Dr. Smith will have 431,100 Ordinary Shares and 5,908,525 options over Ordinary Shares, representing 2.5% of the issued share capital."
A fraction of his share capital.
There is plenty of room in the Global Market for two, or even more, major UK players... ODX and AVACTA/Abingdon.
No opinion on which share to buy... but if I was to say I would argue both.
As always, DYOR.
Sady I remember some of your previous posts about the avacta ceo which were slanderous and quite simply ridiculous and without foundation but most likely deleted now.
I am not anti odx, i know/hope odx will achieve great things, but you obviously have a issues with avacta, probably got stung but thats life.
I have thoroughly researched both companies and am highly confident in both, I suggest ppl keep an open mind and DTOR.
[continued]
...there won't be. Demand will be high and once production and competitive tenders are successfully bid for and won then there is no reason ODX won't have orders. Here in the UK, or elsewhere. These are just facts. No opinion offered.
As always, DYOR.
Analysis:
Firstly - an assumption the UK Gov is organised and has planned ahead (see below: LFT assessment).
Secondly - to roll out the Logistic programme the test must already have been bought, or at the very least tendered and awarded. At least Phase 1 anyway. Also, the delivery/freight chain must already have been tendered and awarded. Military units brought in to assist with regional distribution.
BidStats...
Lateral Flow Test Kits for Testing of Covid-19. The provision of freight services for the supply of lateral flow test kits for testing of Covid-19. Awarded to British Airways. Published 30 Oct.
"The supply of these new test kits is currently limited in the face of very high global demand and consequently it was necessary to contract for supply on an ex-works basis for product manufactured in China in order to secure the required quantity of product and prevent gazumping."
"In light of these factors the contract was awarded to British Airways PLC to meet the specific urgent need to transport test kits to the UK, utilising flights from Shanghai, China to London during September."
"The short lead time between validating new test kits and needing these kits in the UK to support the national response to a second wave of Covid-19 cases in the UK, justifies the use of direct award under Regulation 32 provision within the Public Contracts Regulations 2015."
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W44/737935515
Same here with Air Charter Services. 27 Oct.
"In light of these factors the contract was awarded to Air Charter Service Ltd to meet the specific urgent need to transport test kits to the UK, utilising flights from Xiamen, China to Doncaster Sheffield during October 2020"
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W44/737738846
We already know about the Rapid Test Consortium (06 Oct): Abingdon Health (AVACTA), BBI Group Holding Limited, CIGA Healthcare Limited, and Omega Diagnostics Limited (ODX) https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-invests-in-uk-developed-antibody-tests-from-uk-rapid-test-consortium
Lateral Flow Testing:
Abingdon Health tender: https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W43/737280030 (£75M), dated 20 Oct
Innova tender: https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W43/737214508 ($138M), dated 19 Oct
now...
"Lateral Flow Test Wave 4" https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2020/W43/737214795
Orient Gene test cassettes. Based in China. http://www.orientgene.com/asp-en/home/index.aspx#
Una Health are distributors of Fortress COVID-19 LF test kits... "the preferred COVID-19 antibody home testing..."
https://unahealth.co.uk/news/una-health-hails-success-of-rapid-antibody-test/
(some of this kit appears to require the HealGen equipment = Orient Gene)
Compared to Abbott's test... https://jcm.asm.org/content/58/8/e01233-20
UK Gov LFT assessment ref:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/lateral-flow-devices-results
No mention of ODX/Mologic anywhere. Thats not to say the
At the moment there is no official cooperation with Avacta to make anything.
Let me put this into context, Mologic can make 800k a week right now once their test is CE.
Even IF Avacta had a test, they can make a grand total of 0.
Mologic as I’ve said before are ahead of Avacta. Avacta don’t have a test. Their CEO cashed in some shares a few weeks ago, let me tell you something... if there was even a 50% chance he could double or treble his money by holding on for a month why wouldn’t he? You have to be absolutely stupid to miss that sort of opportunity. Except he cashed in. So either people have to accept he’s stupid or there is no test, because if there was a test no way would he cash in.
Let me make that even more simple. Would I sell my ODX shares if there was at least a 50% chance I’ll double or treble my investment in 30 days? Hell no is the answer.
Avacta nor BBI are recruiting big for this antigen LFT. ODX have 100 staff and possibly 200 in January. Avacta ceo RNS’s when he sends a free test for someone to look at. Avacta bang on about their BAMS test and even that isn’t complete and the industry is moving onto LFT.
This isn’t an invite for AVCT people to start posting here, but fellow ODX poster of the intelligent kind... show me the sales order for BAMS. Or one picture or article with their LFT out in the wild.
Yes should do. After all for a long period at least demand will outstrip what they and anyone else could supply
The market, even just the U.K. market, is so large that no one company can meet the demand. Normal competitive behaviours will have been replaced by a spirit of collaboration and cooperation between “rival” companies and government. Both ODX (through Mologic) and Avacta will do just fine in the rapid Ag test space.
Why does everyone feel so strongly about this being ODX, Avacta or even NCYT? Who’s to say it’s not all of them!? There’s also rumours ODX have signed a contract with Avacta so maybe it is not just ONE company. There’s enough demand for all companies with a validated and high standard test isn’t there? Why so many people saying “it’s def us”? I’m a holder of ODX and Avacta so assuming one gets it I’m happy but why not both
Out of curiosity, has there been any figures released for the sensitivity / specificity of the Mologic antigen LFT? (swab or saliva). If they were testing in Heathrow and drive through centres there must be some good numbers associated with it.
Also what is more telling is that in the previous presentation when CK talked about capacity increasing further, he specifically said that it was in relation to Moonshot.
Another thing that I picked up on from the recent Mologic slide that was doing the rounds, is Mologic are working on a swab and a saliva test. So we are not reliant on saliva being cracked its a further hedge that there are actually 2 shots at getting the antigen test right.
I do not know if Mologic will be the first test but it will be one of the early ones. What I am looking for is the performance quality of the first few. Have companies managed to get 95%+ sensitivity and above?? If so some tests will never get to market. If 85% is the best a lateral flow test can achieve then some of the other companies will be fine.