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Blu..if you were so deterred by what has gone before you would not still be here.
the mistakes that have been made, that you do not keep moaning about, reflect on management and their potential for the future.
if you don't see or understand that, then financial markets are not for you old fella.
Btw..no need to highlight the "Assuming full uptake"..like i said,even at 33% uptake we're looking at a rerate.
We've all been through the ups and downs.What's been has passed.I still see this as having strong upside potential considering the incoming demand for LFTs worldwide..that's why i'm still here and that's why i don't keep looking back,moaning about the mistakes that have been made.
"Assuming full uptake of 2mn p/wk capacity,split between our own Visitect,Antibody and DHSC contract"
Wad - the problem is that it is all based on an assumption of sales of visitect, antibody and DHSC contract. If they can sell then i would potentially agree on the forecast...however it has been 6 months since DHSC contract was awarded and still they are just talking....antibody test? sales of visitect in a foreign market?....odx need to up their game
Re tweet from Shredz,.let's not glance over these estimates / projections.
Assuming full uptake of 2mn p/wk capacity,split between our own Visitect,Antibody and DHSC contract tests, :
Gross Profit,PER WEEK,of over £4mn (assuming 50% margin on all tests)
Revenue,per year circa £450mn
Gross Profit,per year (assuming 30% margin on DHSC Contract and 50% on the rest)..£186mn
Let's be really,really conservative and assume 33% take up of current full capacity,GP per year approx. £60mn.
Considering both the UK and US ran short of LFT supplies during the week,considering they have yet to be green lighted to complement/largely replace PCRs for air travel (150- 180mn passengers per year in/out of UK pre-covid)..is a mere 33% utility/uptake really that unattainable from the position we're now in ?..a mere £60mn Gross Profit. 50% uptake then we're looking at approx.£90mn GP. Current mcap well below £100mn..seriously undervalued.Surely just a matter of time and confirmation of what we already know now before this rerates.Looking forward to the next couple of weeks,BIG news coming our way.GLA and hold tight.The trolls on here aren't here for your benefit or mine.
oke - would be great if true. however my suspicion is that ODX are possibly getting a relative small fee for cassetting and pouching on account of all the equipment being loaned by the government.
I wonder if that has possibly been a factor in the elongated talks process - if it is indeed with surescreen? they might be currently getting such a good deal that they are happy to continue that way until their own plant is developed?
Think TW has a good point, we have to go on the known facts , the 2 companies have 600 plus staff and current combined capacity of 28M a month increasing to 56M next 12 weeks
It does appear the Government is finally ensuring the U.K. has their own sovereign supply of LFT’s and Omega is part of that solution.
Will we just be manufacturing cassettes for S/Screen or will the Government add some competitive tension and use Visitech antigen test in its entirety, but at least we are generating cash in the meantime.
Thanks Oakhurst - so we're presuming that SS are manufacturing at current full capacity of 28million? But we know they were paid £25 mill last month, so that's prob not (hopefully!) for 28million tests. I reckon it might be more accurate to go on that basis rather than staff numbers - teh key is how much the govt are paying SS per test, and I don't know what that is. Cheers.
Hi Flashy
Crude method
The Government told us last week that Surescreen had 28M a month capacity increasing to 56M p/m over the next 12 weeks, I discounted the increase
The Government also disclosed S/screen had 370 staff and Omega are manufacturing cassettes to assist S/screen
So with our 250 staff @ 370 staff S/screen say 600 staff working on Government tests
So based on a base figure of 45k capacity per employee across the 2 business’s then our slug is 11M a month, of course it may be less / Omega told us they would be at 8M full tests a month back in April, they may not increased productivity in the last 5 months.
Do appreciate it’s a crude method, I wasn’t trying to make the volume match btw but when you crunch the data it has some merit.
TW has a good point about the payments schedule so should find out more next few weeks.
The fact Omega were named checked by the Government and it’s their data carries some weight ? But until we know the full information we can’t be 100% either way .
Hi Oakhurst,
Good detective work starting this thread. However, can I ask how you arrived at Omega's 11m cassettes a month?
"Work that back to Omega …. We are currently producing 11M a month of cassettes, which kind of stacks ?"
As far as I know we haven't been informed what proportion of SS output we are helping with - or have we?
Thanks.
DHSC >£25K Payments in Aug should be out this coming week.
"Was thinking that TW but could the invoicing be in arrears whilst production is stepped up as they expanded
to 370 staff ?"
No idea, but if so, still means that those payments in arrears were for £25M a month for 3 months.
All we can go on is the known facts, Capacity is 7M a week, rising to 14M. Payments for last 3 months averaged around £25M (just checked the august list, which is for July, and that was £22.5M).
Shredz doing his thing as usual :)
https://twitter.com/shredz90/status/1442179852870750216?s=21
Was thinking that TW but could the invoicing be in arrears whilst production is stepped up as they expanded
to 370 staff ?
It’s the amount of staff coupled with the Government quoting 7M a week rising to 14M ?
Your helpful post identifying SS moving to larger premises as well?
As was pointed out to me in another thread, the gov PR talks about Surescreen capacity of 7M a week, rising to 14M a week. It does not say that is the production.
We also know Surescreen have received on average approx £25M a month for the last 3 months. That would not be consistent with 28M tests a month.
"....and surprisingly no indication that Surescreen will be adding staff to produce 56M a month by the end of the year "
Phased increase to 1300
from june this year
https://www.eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk/mag/news/1000-jobs-on-the-way-as-surescreen-diagnostics-purchases-new-facility/
"Orders for the tests prompted an increase in people from 60 to more than 300 over the course of a year, but with SureScreen’s new site, they believe this will grow given the high levels of demand."
"The Derby-based company plans a phased increase of its workforce up to 1,300 after moving into the new site at Sherwood Business Park, near junction 27, last week."
Okehurst two good posts this weekend and Very well thought out we await the rerate gla
As Omega have not disclosed any financial details of note around their antigen LFT then we have to measure like for like from other sources.
If we look at the Government web site this week it indicates 370 staff can manufacture say 28M tests a month with Omega’s assistance
So including Omega staff that’s say 600 plus staff producing
28M LFT’s a month currently and surprisingly no indication that Surescreen will be adding staff to produce 56M a month by the end of the year
Appreciate this is a wee bit of raw science but currently it’s
45,000 LFT’s a month per employee, potentially rising to
90,000 a month end of year but let’s work on current staff.
Work that back to Omega …. We are currently producing 11M a month of cassettes, which kind of stacks ?
Ok so we know for the cassette for RTC AbC -19 we generated £1.70 @ 50% margin - company broker told us
That would indicate we are currently generating £18M a month and £9M gross on our contribution of cassettes?
We may think it’s material and the company has to tell the market but am not too sure if they have to disclose the financials today ,they can wait until the November update - the Chairman told us he will update market then.
Anyway appreciate its a crude measurement but it may merit 10% +/ - 45k a month per employee but it can’t be that far away as a rule of thumb as things stand today.
‘As the government continues to back companies and technologies working to help break chains of COVID-19 transmission, these new tests will bolster efforts to detect asymptomatic cases of COVID-19, and support more than 370 jobs in the Midlands.
‘Produced by Derby manufacturer, SureScreen Diagnostics, this LFD generates a result in under 15 minutes’
‘The company currently has the capacity to manufacture approximately 7 million tests per week, with plans to increase this to 14 million per week ‘
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/first-uk-manufactured-rapid-tests-deployed-across-england