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someone is shorty of stock.....
One of the inflection points came sooner that I expected! In my posting last week I complained that the presentation was "numbers light". I've now had a chance to study the numbers and drew a number of interesting conclusions:
1. The NAV is higher than the market price. So NSCI trades on a 5% discount to NAV.
2. The fair value (i.e. the Venture Capital Association assessment methodology) put the discount at 45% (as at 31/12/21)
3. The AuM with 15%-20% profit share of outperformance above 10% could be worth a lot if there are any serious outperformers.
4. Many if not all of the stakes appear to be convertible loans. This means that if the investee does badly NSCI is ahead of other investors plus earns interest from that investee. If they do well then the loan (and interest) can be converted to equity. Looking at the fine print there's an intelligence to how these have been structured.
5. There's a lot of technical signals (e.g. RSI) pointing towards a reversion to the mean of Biotech. It should be remembered that while Biotech is risky, healthcare is not - it's defensive. If a treatment can get to a successful phase 2 outcome it is then possible to sell it at an uplifted value (without having to fully commercialise it yourself).
6. Liquidity - assuming the business had to batten down the hatches it has liquid resources to survive 4 years with zero cash realisations. This is through a mixture of cash £2.7m and liquid investments £6m.
In conclusion I feel happier having read through their results and my earlier concern at how those results were presented has reduced. Understanding the statutory loss and adjusted profit gain was comforting and the analyst expectations of £1.50-£1.80 seem reasonable as we see further positive news flow.
GLA
I wonder if we're going to see a run of PR now. Things have certainly perked up this last week, 'the turn around is now complete'. So what's next then?
With significant value holdings in the following;
PDSB
Proaxsis
Glycotest
Q-bot
Vortex Bio
Good RNS - not many shares available - up 20% on 6.5k shares of volume.
83,to buy
Covid might not be headline news now but an accurate test with AZ backing has to be worth a few quid.
Great work by Proaxsis!
What a fantastic RNS!! ProAxsis announces "impressive" results in performance evaluation of the in-licensed AstraZeneca COVID-19 antibody test
-- Successful completion of evaluation of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 antibody test
-- The assay showed exceptional levels of sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 99.3% respectively
-- Successful development strengthens ProAxsis's expanding product range and international customer offering
'PDSB golden nugget' - yes , and nicely up 19% y’day.
Just finished watching the investormeetcompany presentation. The presentation feels "light" on the numbers and lots of talk about how they are still turning the legacy around 18 months later - that feels disappointing because they told us they'd "turned it around" last year. The elephant in the room is the general sell off of biotech. But I'd like to have understood where the losses lay and how that changes. The loss were dressed up as "investment" but that makes no sense unless you're writing off 100% of the investment - otherwise it doesn't go to the P&L and by definition can't be a loss!!!! Feels like a basic lack of a grasp of accountancy. However the technology news is positive so am remaining here awaiting further news on the anticipated inflection points.
I asked the question and very pleased with the answer.
Test results are excellent.
Ready to market as soon as CE mark in place. Could be as soon as 3/4 weeks.
Hundreds of thousands is what he said for initial sales, so not quite a million.
A quick scan online gives prices between £10 and £30 each.
Happy with that for starters.
Not sure how the market will react to the AZ news tomorrow. Time wise, couldn't be much better with CE mark within 2 weeks suggested. However, the test will be targeting the clinical testing market and not the mass market which will limit sales significantly compared to what the market may have expected.
PDSB still the golden nugget here, all indications appear to suggest trial results end of May/June will be highly encouraging and should lead to a strong rerate assuming the wider market sell off doesnt continue
Happy to hold
Proaxsis/AZ news in the next couple of trading days.
Maybe I was harsh - but it has been a hard day! Chairman got better. I think investors would prefer more of a focus on numbers, exits, valuations - not generic backslapping on how well everything is going.
Listening to the presentation, CEO is coming across very well in my view. Exec chairman for me was like nails on a chalkboard - sounded like an auditor who had read a management speak for beginners book. A real struggle to sit through - keeps patting himself on the back for his practical turnaround and excellent progress. Reality check my friend - look at the share price. Happy to trust my investment with Ilian though..
And it wasn’t a bad rns either
Looks like were sinking faster than the titanic..what a fantastic choice i made buying this...lol
RNS OUT
I'm sure we've all got lots of questions to ask, for me, what's going on with GlycoTest and wtf is happening with the covid anti body test at ProAxsis?
I think it was last year's results where Dr II said Vortex was his 'favourite child' so I was pleased to see their extra investment there.
Im hoping they've delayed these results to give us some good news from somewhere, not sure what that's going to be though...
So what are you more educated than I asking them?
Interesting interview. They obviously think the Vortex deal is pretty impressive but Friday was a rubbish day to release news.
Makes me think the results might have something decent to say, otherwise they would have kept this one back?
My money is on the AZ anti body test being ready to go.
The field that Vortex operates in is just on the cusp of acceptance.
I hold Angle, valued at £250M with sales of £1M (yes £1M). Hundreds of peer papers and awaiting and FDA review.
Vortex £300K for 30% with sales of £0.12M. Someway behind Angle but they have a product and market to sell into.
You can see why they are excited.