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I agree Alexia. Doing some very quick maths, a multiple of 13 (which is referenced as the long term multiple based on the below posting by Hugh-Jarse) on earnings of 4.1 million gets the value to 53.3 million....add in the cash on hand of 14 million and one could very well argue a value of 67.3 million. This puts us at a reasonable 23p per share based on 293.56m shares in circulation. Anyone, please let me know if I am missing something.
Come Monday I may be looking to off-load some TTR and NPT and move into a more stable stock...if one exists these days, in an attempt to regain some losses on portfolio. I am inclined to think that money sitting in either of these stocks for the next few months is just dead money!!! Unless of course ST over at IC can rebalance the universe next week!!!
Bruce: My average for TTR = 64p and NPT =19p......so I reckon I could be stuck here for a couple of years. It's not an income share. So when I exit, it will have to be with a capital gain. However, I've been in and out of the stock a couple of times since Feb 2013 with gains which have been banked, I therefore have a small cushion to take the rough with the smooth. After all, this is aim, and almost all of my mishaps have been on aim. Why do we do it ? I'm sure Elite (the old sly boots) will have the answer. You see he watches and waits and hits the target every time.
As well as the continuing sell of in Wall St of tech stock...the ripples of which have smashed onto our shores. Digital Look have this to say: JPMorgan lowers targets for gambling stocks on regulatory risks Date: Friday 11 Apr 2014 JPMorgan lowers targets for gambling stocks on regulatory risks It’s hard to see any positive catalysts in the European gambling sector, according to JPMorgan Cazenove, which retained its cautious stance on stocks in light of regulatory risks. JPMorgan lowered its price targets for the majority of gambling stocks under its coverage. The bank said that despite significant negative share prices moves since the start of the year - Ladbrokes and William Hill have dropped 25% and 18%, respectively – the European gambling sector still trades well above its long-term average on a price-to-earnings (PE) basis. The average PE multiple is 16.7 compared with the historical average of 13.3. “With UK regulatory uncertainty set to continue well into the second half of 2014 and minimal/negative earnings per share growth in 2015, we remain cautious,” JPMorgan said. The bank believes that the UK government could announce regulatory restrictions as early as next week, though major changes are more likely after the Responsible Gambling Trust study is published this autumn. “In time, we think that the regulatory focus could shift from UK Retail to Online (advertising is already being reviewed), which could put pressure on ratings across the sector.” JPMorgan’s only ‘overweight’-rated stock in the sector if Playtech, where it sees upside from M&A and new business wins. Its target price for Playtech, however, has been cut from 880p to 825p. Meanwhile, the rating for Ladbrokes was left at ‘underweight’, while the target price was lowered from 100p to 95p. The bank said that in addition to Ladbrokes’ high UK retail exposure, which accounts for 80% of 2014 earnings, consensus forecasts are “too optimistic” on underlying UK Retail conditions and a Digital turnaround. William Hill is also rated ‘underweight’, while Betfair and Paddy Power are rated ‘neutral’. BC
Elite: Thanks for sharing that link, I've tucked it away for another read later. There are definitely other dimensions to the POC tax issue which ST oversimplified nor touched on. Obliged.
Hugh - I have been invested in NPT and TTR since last September. I had the chance to take some profit from TTR around January, but I always intended to let both shares run for the full year...or more... I think that once the POC debacle is sorted these will recover, but in maybe six months time. The whole market is down at present so these shares would have been affected anyway. As we all know the markets are fickle and these shares are simply not flavour of the month...until enough people have faith in them again and then they will start to rise.
Great article, enjoyed reading it. With respect to others in the gaming sector, it seems NPT is in a better position to shield itself against POC. !?
BRUCE: How long have you been invested in NPT so far, and roughly what time frame to stay invested ? If I'm being too nosey, ignore with my apologies.
I also bought into NPT and TTR before going away for three weeks. Before leaving i did consider reducing holdings in both as I thought that the negative publicity about tax and gaming sector in particular was going to hit share price, but thought that if it did it would soon recover. Nothing on can do at the moment other than watch both fall through the floor...I am less confident that others that these shares will recover sufficiently in the next year to be able to cover costs and/or make a small profit. Seems to be counterintuitive that a cash generating share is doing so badly. The mixed messages about the POC tax have not helped. By the way I am also invested in GLOBO...so I am well on the way to being suicidal!!!
I wrote a brief article about it on my site a couple of days back (although back-dated the article to April 2013). Link is below. NetPlay is much better placed than TTR, by a country mile. I haven't been invested in TTR, but have been in NPT, although I took profits on the day of the results in order to allow me to quantify the POC tax's impact on the PE ratio etc. Haven't yet re-invested as sentiment seems to be weak at present. NPT is on the watchlist though. http://www.theel1tetrader.com/2013/04/netplay-tv-quantifying-point-of.html El1te
I don't believe that ST has fully understood the nature of the POC tax, and that current broker forecasts do not account for the introduction of the tax. With the market being a forward looking environment, even if TTR produces excellent results during this calendar year (because the tax isn't implemented until December), it will trade on a low rating. Bottom line is that if the POC tax is implemented, TTR's market cap will look very high. El1te
Elite: A cracking post, couldn't agree more. I hope Simon Thompson (sorry to mention him again) is reading it! I do wonder if the POC tax will be announced as early as Dec. I would certainly like to believe NPT is better positioned than TTR,but I recall their CEO saying "...POC tax would have no impact..etc..." I'm invested in both (possibly like yourself) and would like both to do well. Though I wonder how the SP will behave after XD day in comparison to the decline in TTRs share price. Do you think NPT will have a 'wobble' when it goes XD ? *Barrington, hope you're paying attention and drawing some comfort from Elite's posting @1218hrs ! PS: Nothing yet from Saint Simon, just checked. Must've gone for a Friday lunch time pint :-)
"The fall in 32Red's shares since my update post results is not sensible. 32Red issued the following statement to the Stock Exchange two weeks ago: (lists the actual statement, Then ) ....So although the shares are clearly weak, on valuation grounds the investment case remains strong enough to run with the holding. I have not changed my positive view and see far more upside potential than downside at the current level." Regards Simon
Barrington: Investors are very jittery of late, this is making strange things happen. Like the Results on Tues 08Apr, revenue up, profit up, and dividend increased as well. What more could you want? and yet I recall the share down -5% mid morning. However, I'm confident the share will come good, so confident infact that if the SP goes down much more I will overspend and buy more. There you go, enjoy the dividend !
TTR will be severely impacted by the Point of Consumption tax in their next financial year. If it does go ahead, it would decimate their profits, as they don't have the same contractual flexibilities that NetPlay has. Based on their last FY results, the POC tax charge would have been around £3.7m versus pre-exceptionals operating profits of £2.67m. Even saying that they can offset 25% of that charge (through large-scale cost cutting)wouldn't aid much as it would still come to around £2.78m. In other words, if the POC tax comes into force, TTR would be running on substantially reduced profits that would mean the current market cap is very difficult to justify. NetPlay fares better due to its greater tax offset flexibility. El1te
Plse note this article is one month ago: Buy @17.75 Target remains 28.00 " I would also point out that the accompanying sell-off in shares of Aim-traded Netplay TV (NPT: 17.75p) is a great buying opportunity in advance of the company's financial results on Tuesday 8 April. The 14-day RSI is even more oversold than that of 32Red's - showing a reading in the high teens - and the share price is now at a support level and also back to its 200-day moving average. Trading on a bargain basement 2014 PE ratio of 6.5 net of cash, Netplay TV's shares are not only a great trading buy, but offer significant upside potential to both analyst target prices and my own. Daniel Stewart has a target of 26p; N+1 Singer has a valuation range of 28p to 32p, and Sanlam has fair value at 28p. No matter which way I look at NetPlay TV, the shares are hugely undervalued on a bid offer spread of 17.5p to 17.75p. Offering 58 per cent upside to my own target price of 28p, they rate a strong buy and I can only reiterate my previous positive recommendation. DrKow: My date error,noted.Thank you.
...STComment: this was yesterday...
In response to a reader of one of his articles, who had asked him about TTR, ST reiterated his Buy recommendation , saying at current level TTR is a bargain. As for NPT, I expect a new write up from him reiterating his buy recommendation as even a more of a bargain than TTR..Recently published results from NPT were very good...
I have somehow ventured into both so feeling the loss atm. I am however very optimistic that this is a blip and will pick up again soon. GL
Have any of you guys also bought into TTR ?....I couldn't choose btwn them so bought both. But feel that TTR which had its final results and final divi the other day gave NPT a bit of a kicking, however the same events for NPT come after and the pendulum may start to swing back in favour of NPT. Be terrific is Saint Simon gave it a kick up the asre. Good luck all.
I/c Article 08Apr by Harriet Russell: "NetPlay's TV gamble pays off" Investors Chronicle favourite NetPlay TV (NPT) has reported another strong set of annual results after continued heavy spending on marketing delivered a 25 per cent increase in new players. The interactive gaming company also witnessed gross bets exceeding the £1bn mark for the first time in 2013. Consistently cash-generative, the group reported a healthy bank balance at the end of the year - up £1.6m on 2012 even though it funded hefty promotional work, paid out dividends and spent £3m on Sportech's e-gaming division, Vernons.com. The key has been keeping costs low: operational expenses accounted for just 22 per cent of revenues in 2013. Big TV deals also helped increase the scale of the business, as the group signed a new three-year contract with ITV and agreed to sponsor Big Brother. Chief executive Charles Butler said he hoped such deals would be replicated this year, but admitted that online marketing would be the priority. Player retention rates will remain crucial: 45 per cent of 2013 revenues came from players who had held an account for 12 months or longer. Broker N+1 Singer expects pre-tax profits of £5.7m for 2014, giving EPS of 1.98p - up from £4.9m and 1.6p, respectively, in 2013. NETPLAY TV (NPT) ORD PRICE: 19p MARKET VALUE: £55m TOUCH: 18-19p 12-MONTH HIGH: 24p LOW: 16p DIVIDEND YIELD: 2.7% PE RATIO: 13 NET ASSET VALUE: 6p* NET CASH: £13.9m Year to 31 Dec Turnover (£m) Pre-tax profit (£m) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p) 2009 18.5 -8.4 -5.5 nil 2010 19.8 -14.2 -6.7 nil 2011 20.7 0.6 0.2 nil 2012 21.8 3.1 1.2 0.375 2013 28.5 4.2 1.4 0.50 % change +31 +35 +19 +32 Ex-div: 21 May Payment: 19 Jun *Includes intangible assets of £8.4m, or 3p a share IC VIEW: A boost to the dividend signals confidence in the group's growth strategy, which has been in place since the 2010 restructuring. But the growth profile still only commands a forward PE ratio of 11 - undemanding given the year's achievements. Buy.
at least we know we get an update in next fews day....hope he has good things to say about NPT...
Morning peeps....the Simon Thompson article of 11Apr is not about NPT, it merely mentions that it's on his list of updates which will follow in next few days. So kick that one into touch. However, there is an an I/C article from 08Apr on NPT by Harriet Russell. I'll dig it out and post, next few mins.
I am waiting for his views on the stock. Nothing published yet..Hopefully later on today he will do...Following his recom. NPT SP usually shoots up by few pence..
the IC article is headed "Funded for Earnings Growth" thx