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This is one hell of a joke share, but it is no joke for a hell of a lot of shareholders.
Potentially @KarlTayler - although i'd suggest any prospectives to get moving before July results are announced, where i expect we'll see great progress and favourable news.
No. Too much debt. ROA too low.
Considering the size of their operations, contracts in place, and being an essential transport system and operator, is National Express now in sights as a takeover target?
Got to be patient with this one. 6 months to 1 year I am predicting a multi-bagger 2 x. Any sniff of news and this will move very fast. One more top-up can't help myself :)
Lots of upside from this point.
Established business, with growth in the EU and USA.
First group having a good day and NEX having a bad one. This is going to get a lot worse. The signs are there, and now the usual bulls will start whinging
If you book a few days ahead the average coach ticket price seems to be £10-12 rising to £25-£25 as the coach gets sold out.
Thats a serious amount of tickets that need to be sold to reach £2.8 billion
Carrington
Sorry didn't mean to imply anything like that. Its a good point that all markets are facing the same macro issues .. There has been been a a lot of downer talk about the LSE as well
NEX turnover is £2.8 billion - thats a lot of bus tickets across a lot of jurisdictions (except for the US school business )
Gengis "NEX is a global company in the FT250, which is dominated by companies that address the UK market.. Its similar to some of the larger corps in the FT100 :-)" - yes I am aware it is a global company, one of the reasons I have invested in it as it spreads risk - not sure of the point you are trying to make - inflation, interest rates etc are macro economics that currently affect ALL countries that NEX has a presence in - the US are ahead in terms of controlling inflation/interest rates compared to Europe/UK , which will hopefully auger well for the NEX market in the US going forward, with inflation falling and with interest rates being closer to a peak over there - this can be seen with more market commentators in the US predicting the start of a new bull run - will have to see how it plays out
gl dyor etc
You do talk some rubbish QD. Trains are used by people with money and people that use buses are so poor they will opt to walk or ride. I would say I kind of agree with your observation (we may be wrong because I’ve done no research and it would be ridiculous to assume you have) but I certainly reach a different conclusion. I think trains are/will suffer as the average train commuter has probably switched to hybrid working, cutting train use. I do associate buses with the elderly, students and lower paid workers, who aren't going to ‘benefit’ from hybrid working.
A quick break down of what you a getting at decade lows, because of rising rates and the city is desperate attempt to break it up for a quick buck. As QD demonstrates there is always too much attention paid to UK coaches… probably one reason to change the name, to stop the domestic investor looking down their nose at it.
NXWM operate an 80% bus monopoly in the West Midlands where Im doubtful usage is likely to recede any time soon, with people opting to walk to save £2 a journey.
Durham School Services, the second largest student transport operator in the States, they’re picking up slighter fewer contracts than expected but nothing to say it’s fading. US school boards are unlikely to ask their students to walk/ride in and I think its a safe assumption that US states will not cut funding and add millions of car journeys, so another solid and necessary business. (It’s also worth mentioning that first sold first student, roughly twice the size, for $3.5b and that’s the only reason the balance sheets look good over there, where do you think they’ve found the money for buybacks)
You have Alsa which is another monopoly, operating a very successful coach network across Spain as well as bus services across Spain, Morocco and Portugal.
You have German train which couldn’t really have gone any better and must have enhanced the brands reputation in that region.
And of course UK coaches. They seem to be doing well off the back of train strikes and people tightening belts where possible.
All in all a globally diverse company providing essential services. On paper this is remains safe and reliable investment with a potentially huge upside.
Carrington: A lot of UK shares are at 6 month or 1 year lows atm - symtamatic of macro economics - interest rates
NEX is a global company in the FT250, which is dominated by companies that address the UK market.. Its similar to some of the larger corps in the FT100 :-)
moonman: The the UK stock market is bearish and we need to shift away from the NEX ticker. Historically it may have worked or made no difference, but the past is always different. But I also agree that its strange that the name change hasn't occurred
QD
I had a look at ALSA Spain it is look similar to the NEX coach network
MM, You seem quite knowledgeable on buses, you must use them yourself. I’m honoured that you would spend all evening telling me about them too.
It’s a shame your understanding on the financial isn’t quite so well versed. As I say, I suggest you look up the basics on bitesize. It doesn’t take a genius to realise that when a business has no equity other that goodwill, and it produces a return less than you can get on cash, it’s effectively worthless.
This reminds me of when marstons was sitting on the 30 year bottom at 53p. The chart never runs out of paper though, and it’s now 30p.
Gengis, nex is mostly coach travel in the UK, but not internationally.
There has been targeted selling . If you want to dump a large position then it stretches out of a long period of time and basically set your algo to sell into any price rise
that must have been happening for the past couple of months
hopefully 110-120 is the floor
Since we are talking economics...
Interesting argument , but I think it should be pointed out that NEX is in coach travel, not bus travel. Its not a commuter service, its for intercity travel thats not daily. Semantics matter
In my opinion coach travel is pretty inelastic demand , that is people will pay what it takes to get a seat . If a coach ticket goes from £10 to £15 thats still affordable because its not daily ticket.. People dont commute by coach daily, it would take too long for starters
If ticket prices on intercity rail increase, then the NEX coach network will catch some of the travel demand
So is it nothing personal
It looks like a sectoral shift in investment strategy. Of course that sounds like coping
And before you mention it, spellcheck put the space in microeconomics!
Busses- US plural for bus. Nex primarily operates busses in the US.
You obviously have no idea about business or the importance of understanding your target market if you think it doesn’t matter how much money they have. Imagine a your costs go up, and your margins are very tight. Not such a problem if your customers are well off, just pass it on. Now imagine your customers have no money, you can’t pass it on. They’ll just walk/cycle. I suggest you look at BBC bite size to get a basic understanding of micro economics.
It’s a shame really that a name change wouldn’t change the fundamentals.
I find it hilarious that you compare this to FGP just because it operates in the same sector. Well, it doesn’t even operate in the same sector really, FGP is primarily trains, mostly used by professionals with money to spend, and NEX is primarily busses, a service for people with no money.
More importantly though FGP is a solid profitable business with plenty of cash and a very healthy balance sheet. So you really can’t compare the 2. NEX is the kind of business that would be taken over for a £1 with a promise to invest hundreds of millions paying down the debt.
Yes, please explain it in simpler terms. I thought you meant the **** bus company would be a good name because of the fundamentals (massive debt/ROA less than interest rates).
MM, you were saying this is an absolute lemon and should be called the **** bus company last week. Make your mind up.
Don’t see why people are so disgruntled by opposing views anyway. Truth hurts?
It indicates that yet another finance house has dumped this and is running for the hills.
Does today's RNS indicate that JPMorgan Chase probably bought up what BlackRock disposed of the day before ?
I was out most of yesterday, so was unable to buy that lovely dip that I see took place late morning! Loving the ongoing battle with the 50 DMA. It feels like it is going to make a decisive move (one way or the other) soon, IMO.
Still long and cautiously optimistic with the core holding, but that looked like an easy trading opportunity missed. Bah! :)