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Sorry CF this whole business of NOMADs stepping in is a load of rubbish. They don't always do it with major listed companies. Let alone dodgy little AIM companies that are opaque as hell. Every person on this board would be able to list companies where the NOMAD has done f'all. You either have confidence in this project gonig ahead or not. Quite frankly the only reason I'm still invested is SF. And as it turns out he's the only reason we're not 2p is because of him. He supported the SP when in the doldrums. Allowed us to get a raise away to keep the lights on. And he continues to support the sp as it drops to low 3's. I have very little confidence and trust in Hanno. He's ridden to CEO on the coat tails of his father. There's too much bull**** around this company made worse by the recent opaque solar loan to fund one of Hanno's brother's ventures. This last part is sadly a fact. I don't believe SF would throw good money after bad so here my money sits. It's not like I could sell it anyway - no-one is buying (except maybe SF).
garykc, I'm not sure what you mean in your last post. Please explain.
Any delaying tactics by Hanno though...............................
The NCCL project is 800 kilometres from the LNG project and as far as I am aware construction has not yet started on the NCCL project, so there is not much if anything as yet on the ground for the Islamists to disrupt.
I can’t decide if the delay to LNG project places more importance on getting NCCL over the line (developing country needs a flagship energy project), OR if the Islamic insurgents pose same threat to NCCL?
Excellent earlier post Christchurch.
AIM gets jittery during periods of silence, especially when a company is at critical stages. But the silence is there for good reason. This is the business end we finally at. Would also say, that if there were a genuine delay or issue, our NOMAD would have pushed for an RNS on the main project. However, there hasn't been one. Can only mean NCCL have convinced them there is no issue. Instead, we have had the Synergy Agreement and subsequent update informing us they in sensitive negotiations.
Meanwhile, Total declares force majeure on its up-country LNG project (alongside Esso) because of Islamic insurgency, saying a one - year stop on project seems likely.
This won't help Moz's economic ....or people.
:_<
Hi Caterham7,
Could be, but it would surely be a better 'look' for China to scale back on its currently aggressive expansion of domestic coal power (where there are 'cleaner' alternatives) than in benighted Africa, where there are fewer alternatives....and greater need.
Assuming 'Black lives matter' is used in the true meaning of the words !
But logic and objective reality doesn't always trump perception and politics ;-<
Exactly my thoughts/fears Caterham7. A lot of selling today which is a worry. Luckily, only small batches at the moment.
Good objective overview Chris. The only possible show stopper I can think of is if China were to make a 'coal reduction' appeasement to Bidens renewed Climate Change initiative, and NCCL was selected as the sacrificial lamb. Unlikely, but Black Swans, etc.
Excellent analysis chrishutch.
An interesting 1,111 first trade of the day, value £42, unlikely to be a private investor, not sure what to make of it.
Thanks chrishutch, great synopsis and in line with my belief.
I continue to add, as I sense massively undervalued in context of risk/ reward.
I think the 10 million director buy of Scott fletcher's is a huge positive. It was done on the open market to the best of my knowledge and was designed to show his confidence in the company at a time when they are unable to give updates.
It was also legal and incredibly clever as some retail investors annoyed by the misjudged time lines had sold down and caused a bit of panic selling during a low liquidity period.
As we are all aware that negotiations between the company, the Government and EDM are ongoing that puts this information in the public domain. So as long as his actual buying was done at time when the company were waiting for further information which we know from the lack of RNS then it is all considered above board. He has exploited the weakness in price to its full potential.
The major shareholders list on the company website has been updated recently and shows all the majors holdings including Scott's. The update reflects his recent buys and his percentage increase.
The holdings of the others when compared to previous major shareholding updates on the company site show that all holders have decreased their size by exactly 5.6% with the exception of Scott who obviously increased.
This 5.6% decreased amount equates to the recent cash raise/placing. To me this suggests that Scott has been buying on the open market and the others have currently maintained their holdings. But if not and someone is selling but has delayed reporting while they offload then we know that either Scott is happy to consume at this level or is happy to buy the value at the current price.
So why is the price where it is, well clearly Scott has got a great price, no surprise there. But why did Scott not push the price up as he finished buying? This would be normal with the tail end of a majors buying, does he want more, is he still buying? or does he want the seller to have to sell down here? Has anyone tried buying in size to see what is available? or what happens to the price on buys.
I personally think he is just happy with the price and will take advantage to bring his average right down while he can as knows that on news the share price will leapfrog higher.
If a major shareholder had sold 10 million shares, the market would have been notified by RNS. So I agree with Extrader, it must have been a worked buy order filled over a number of days/weeks.
Not disagreeing with the basic thesis, but is this factually correct :
.."Firstly they would have needed to notify the market as he purchased more shares and went through thresholds over weeks of buying..."
My understanding was that you only had to notify the market once the order had been completed...precisely to try and avoid having the price run away from you.
Clarification welcome, for my general education !
If we don't get news in the next 2 weeks then I reckon we'll be back down to 3.5p again. And when I say news I don't mean some opaque update on some dodgy financing deal done by our bod on a side project part owned by our CEOs brother. Unfortunately this is the only news we've received in the past few months. Can't say it fills me with confidence.
As much as we talk about SF buying more stock, if he bought it off another major investor then what does it say about their confidence in the bod and the main project. I find it hard believe he picked up 10m shares on the open market. Firstly they would have needed to notify the market as he purchased more shares and went through thresholds over weeks of buying. Secondly the sp wouldn't have dropped and stayed near all time lows. On that note they need to issue an rns as 10m shares is notifiable when bought from another major holder. It really does feel like there's a lot of shady **** going on at the moment.
Well there certainly appears to be some sellers around so plenty of opportunities to buy. Thank god we don't need to raise any more cash.
Just treat it as a buying opportunity! RVR
Everyday is a day closer.
Yeah, NCCL, should have known better, who gives an estimate when the time period is not in your control. That was daft and caused worry, profit taking and the price to halve when no news came, which should have been cleared up right away as there was nothing to worry about. Not really fair to us shareholders and left me feeling frustrated and let down.
The good news is that if there was anything negative the would have had to notify the market so I take that as a positive and and the fact a director bought another 10 mill is a great sign. Looking at the price action he had that order worked and possible is continuing to buy, but that is hearsay, what we want is the frecking tariff news so we can open this up and start the price climb.