The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Just sold 100%. Probably will shoot up on Monday! Just saw Golden Agri-Resorces 2nd quarter results declared on Aug 14th - US$ (39.02)m loss compared to US$21.88m profit for same period in 2017. Currently just seeing Palm Oil business as TOO risky. Also wish I had never heard of Dekeloil. Very hard to find sound share to buy at the moment - gold bars may be the answer?
Hi Rugs, I am showing a very modest 3.5 per cent book profit on 800 shares I bought 18 months ago.I would not normally consider selling, but Palm Oil prices still seem to be falling. The SP of MPE went up 6.8% just yesterday. So I was thinking of just calling it a day here, selling all, and then monitoring going forward with a view to buying back later once palm oil prices start to recover I am aware of KLK buying in the background and speculation about future takeovers. I also am aware MPE production has been increasing lately. I don't really have the time to do in depth research at the moment, and for some reason I seem to be losing my risk appetite - could be to do with huge book losses in Dekeloil! It could be that the SP price increase yesterday was due to expected good half year results. Decisions decisions. In the end I will probably bottle it, sell half, and sit on the fence.. Good luck with your holdings.
so what woke everybody up yesterday ??
Increased stake again
Disappointing drop in palm oil price from $750 to $570 - supply & Trump. Just a watch out call, that if it persists it strengthens KLK case to try and buy on the cheap again - as MPE profits will fall even as productivity rises because fixed costs are fairly static. As ever commodities are a pendulum and hopefully the major investors will be looking long term enough!
I'm still holding - but then I have done for nearly 20 years - from just under 60p....
KLK increased their stake again. I have held some for a while & bought another 1100 today.
Hidden in the Annual report +23% crop production for 1st 3 months of this financial year....
to open on a Monday with a large uncrossed buy trade. It has however pushed the price up a little so cannot complain.
The recent Internal Valuation of �11 per share on the MPE website would seem to suggest that the Board is going to contest any offer pitched at less than �12 or more per share with good reason. Most successful bids are at 25% to 30% above the then market price.
M.P. Evans Group PLC (LON:MPE)'s price target was raised by FinnCap from GBX 835 ($11.02) to GBX 845 ($11.15). "buy" rating.
The shares are worth a lot more than the present share price of circa 7.45p, even without a possible bid.
highlights ������ 26% increase in crop as young plantings continue to mature ������ 56% increase in production of crude palm oil ������ Operating profit for the period more than tripled to US$18�million (2016 US$5�million) ������ Profit of US$68�million following sale of Agro Muko joint venture ������ Average CPO price of US$735 per tonne, 10% higher than first half 2016 ������ Oil extraction at good levels despite flooding in Kalimantan ������ 1,370�hectares of new planting, including smallholder areas ������ Interim dividend of 5.00�pence per share (2016 - 2.25�pence per share)
all over the place. Any specific reason ?
The Share Price is holding "firm". KLK are free to make a further offer from 22nd December 2017. It would be an ideal solution if the Board of MPE and KLK could agree upon an " agreed offer" which the Board of MPE could recommend to their Shareholders by Christmas.
Sooner or later someone will come with a realist offer. Fortunately there are soon very substantial shareholders who will not need to sell out for less than the company is worth. Site tight
I do agree and as well holding some currently, believe they are worth buying. They have as you say managed (been forced?) to crystallize some of that value, which means they are cash rich and have a more opaque value. The other thing to bear in mind is that they are at the end of the day a 'commodity' and if you look back - with a relatively fixed cost base the amount of cash profit they make per tonne of CPO is hugely leveraged by the price. This means their price naturally goes up and down with the cycles - however they have been actively adding to their acreage since leaving Malaysia which is where the managements skills have also been cleverly opportunistic in peddling the share price / market value up over time, despite the ups and downs, by selling those old assets at premium opportunities, before this forced mass sale clear out !
I stand to be corrected but I believe that if a company expresses publicly that it will make an offer and does not do so - then it has to wait 6 months (or if the target agrees 3 months). If an offer is withdrawn or lapses (fails to reach it's 'conditions' 51% in this case) - then they must wait 12 months. My only caution about the speed of events is that; a) the board were vociferously against it. b) Support from shareholders despite the much higher price than it's then market price was very low. c) It failed to flush out any other interested parties. Of course if suddenly a £13-14 offer was made it would be a different ball game - but I am just trying to be realistic as to how likely this is. Purely opinion, but to me it looks like KLK saw an opportunity to good to miss, but with a frankly derisory 13.2% acceptances, knew the game was up and accepted a chunk of institutional shares at a good price as an investment of value / springboard if at any later stage the management or the commodity price faltered. Otherwise why did they not up their bid to say £10, rather than committing themselves to a final bid of £7.40?
my understanding is KLK can go to the board with an offer after 3 months. Not sure about the failed offer - because it was lapsed... so I think they are entirely able to go back with another bid - especially if they make an offer to the board which is accepted. they hold 13% i believe - I don't think we will see a year out. With a low pound they will go sooner rather than later - anyone else got any info - on this - re takeover after a lapsed offer - or if they approach with a friendly deal? thats why i think we will see 13 - 14 a share offered. Results out soon and with a strong dollar - and better Palm oil prices this is going to be a good set of results.
Having already got a notifiable stake - I don't think these are KLK, because they would have to put out an announcement. Also I don't believe they can bid again for 12 months after a failed bid - so don't get too carried away with anything happening to quickly ! I have actually held the shares for around 20 years - they were Rowe Evans then + several others Bertam, Lendu etc, all held large cross holdings in each before merging, probably to be able to grow without predatory interest such as KLK. I originally bought at 47p - so I was quite happy to tell the board I don't ever want a fast buck takeover. Good management small companies such as MPE, Nichols, James Fisher are invaluable to tortoises like me! To rugs - I also bought AEP at the same time - 5000 at around 50p, selling 2000 when they reached 65p - look at them now as well - again not for fast buck people as they are protected with a 51% owner who turned down a speculative offer around 65p then - now near 700p.....I bought them just because I used to travel to the far east and liked the way they produced crops all year round.
thats over half a million£ (anothe 1.1 % of the company) - I bet that KLK building their stake before a bid............
Nice analysis. The 7.62 trade is a buy. Me, back in again. Also reckon DKL and PAL worth a look. I hold both.
By My reckoning - from the report carried out by Khongg and Jaffar.....which valued the company last year at 665.433m US$......At the current rate of exchange of $1.22 to the UK£......Each share Now (after buy backs) Has a Value of at least £9.83 pence.... so we are trading currently at only 78% of the then prepared valuation. I see the Group's 36.84% share in PT Agro Muko to the Belgian Sipef group for the sum of US$100 million (which is 6% above the valuation at that time).....so on that basis then the value per share is approx 9.80£ after the 6% that will be paid as a special dividend (10p). So MPE now has nearly 200m$ cash in the bank on its own plus at least 565$m of assets (minimum) and so the KLK offer of 7.40 a share (at current share holding) is indeed an insult. so by my reckoning a 40% premium to the value per share of 9.8 makes a take over of value of 14£ seem a good figure. with new plantations delivering more and the value of palm oil going up as well as yield then i think KLK would need to offer at least 12-14 for it to be accepted. The Minimum net asset value is 9.80 per share imho....so they had better get a move on if the want to bid because the share price is only going one way - NORTH. Id expect it to see 850-900 by results day.
By My reckoning - from the report carried out by Khongg and Jaffar.....which valued the company last year at 665.433m US$......At the current rate of exchange of $1.22 to the UK£......Each share Now (after buy backs) Has a Value of at least £9.83 pence.... so we are trading currently at only 78% of the then prepared valuation. I see the Group's 36.84% share in PT Agro Muko to the Belgian Sipef group for the sum of US$100 million (which is 6% above the valuation at that time).....so on that basis then the value per share is approx 9.80£ after the 6% that will be paid as a special dividend (10p). So MPE now has nearly 200m$ cash in the bank on its own plus at least 565$m of assets (minimum) and so the KLK offer of 7.40 a share (at current share holding) is indeed an insult. so by my reckoning a 40% premium to the value per share of 9.8 makes a take over of value of 14£ seem a good figure. with new plantations delivering more and the value of palm oil going up as well as yield then i think KLK would need to offer at least 12-14 for it to be accepted. The Minimum net asset value is 9.80 per share imho....so they had better get a move on if the want to bid because the share price is only going one way - NORTH. Id expect it to see 850-900 by results day.
choo choo
Bid now moving up nicely from 749p now 776.5 on low volume - offer near 800...something may be in the offing here IMVHO!