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Some thoughts from last night -
1 - I genuinely believe this drop is just due to the market being spooked by where the mine funding is going to come from and ergo, the MDA - obviously chicken and egg to an extent . I still strongly believe that the US are going to come knocking . We don’t need working cap funding . We survived for years on scraps .
2 - when you read the final page of the results - we WILL transfer exploration licenses into mining licences. (The auditors wouldn’t allow this certainty of language unless it was contracted) and
3- DFS for an ‘integrated’ project - is mentioned once MDA signed AND after Pulawy feasibility study complete = much bigger prize . Could be what the investors / acquirers are waiting for….
4 - the 500k USD p/m cash burn - I assume this is linked to the completion of the DFS ? So we would now revert to historic cash use levels - e.g. <100k pm
5 - we need c250m to finance a mine with 2.1bn cash flow .
6 - price action suggests a small fund raise to take us COMFORTABLY through the next 12 months while we sort the next steps out .
7 - takeover becoming more and more likely.
Great post. I’m looking at it like this with all worst case situations only …
- the MDA is not being agreed because Malawi want too much.
- Talaxis hold 33% and are stopping any proposal that effects their holding.
- they can’t raise the funds by placing or private institution because of the lack of clarity.
- huge disagreement internally with the bod / governments and Malawi all involved in major discussions.
- Malawi could turn around and seize or nationalise the asset
- bod are trying to negotiate a takeover but who would buy it with Malawi playing hardball.
- there is no reason for institutional investors not to buy in now but there is a major stumbling block that has caused us to drop to 11p and it’s not the general markets.
- it needs to hold here or we are in big trouble. Management have proven to make shrewd deals although timing has been an issue in the past. So management silence tells you there is a major problem behind the scenes.
Just my worst case thoughts on what’s going on. If we fall again today then the management have given up acting on what they stated. How can they go from employing a cfo and a £500k investment from Cotec to then saying it’s a going concern or the company ?
Why could they announce a placing when sp was at 17p ? Do it at 12p with a 30% discount ?
Looks like they can’t do a placing as non of the current institutions will take part and they know private investors might not stump up the cash.
Lots to ponder but something definitely is not right and please let’s all stop using the MACRO excuse.
Let’s see what today brings.
U think I’m going to sell
Now ?? Really ?
I’m here until the end fella. This either swims or I go down with the ship.
All I did was point out the possible outcomes of what could be happening behind closed doors.
After all it does make you wonder if they wanted to raise money why haven’t they by now ?
Is it wrong for me to question my investment in to a company for not acting to protect the shareholders or its price ?
No.
No positives.
You need to calm down.
GL.
Any number of factors could be delaying it, the board may even be delaying it themselves if it suits their financial position.
Fact is, there’s tons of minerals in the ground and there’s very few upcoming mines this far in the advanced stages of commercialisation. Add to this the delicate relationship with US/China and they’re ability to simple switch off RRE supply in response to Taiwan weapons packages and RRE prices will simply explode, this won’t sit well with anyone that needs the materials and especially if they have the cash to offer MKA a good deal!
We’ve all been effected by Russias monopoly so expect governments to wade in heavy handed to secure minerals to continue building economic strength with as little disruption as possible.
The going concern declaration features on a huge percentage of AIM microcap stocks because it is required under GAAP.
All of the risks you have stated I have been aware of for 5 + years (and form part of the investment decision) I don’t think nationalisation is likely .
From a macro perspective- the risk of product substitution is more concerning - if the market finds a better permanent magnet motor for EVs etc - we are screwed . This is more likely, the higher the price of REE stays .
Excellent summary CristalBall.. I'm also assuming a small raise to get us through. I still have a lot of faith in the company. The facts speak for themselves and apart from the bad PR side of things, (which I believe is mostly due to the fact the BoD is as honest as f**k and a bunch of nerds, and PR is not in their vein of expertise), everything else stands as it is.. Solid!
Let's get one thing straight... this is not a company or Bod that likes to screw around like a LOT of AIM BoDs. They're getting all necessary work done and consistently working to MKA thee company to be proud of!
The lack of comms could simply be that they're so close to MDA and financing, I mean like days away!... and the RNS they want to put out is one to put a smile on all our faces!
Lewis. It’s emotions mate. Nothing to do with identity.
The fact the bod have taken this long AFTER the rns shows you that we have a major problem here.
I’m over invested and am here “til death do us part” but something tells me there are major discussions going on behind the scenes and it’s not looking good as Managment can’t get a small raise away.
The songwe asset is in a separate company that owns 100%. If the MDA can’t be agreed with Malawi and just for a second take out songwe from the equation then I can see a raise at 5p.
I know as investors we don’t want to think of this but mka technically is built up on the songwe asset. If we can’t access that asset for the time being then what’s to mka apart from Hypromag that needs major funding ?
Rest of mka assets need major funding and it’s why myles has sold out in my book, he’s awfully quiet and that says something.
I’m prepared to go all or bust here but be rest assured I’m holding on for dear life but the bust element or major issues surrounding this asset are not far away as we think.
I think the bod pulled wool over Cotec and Managed to get £500k yet they hired a cfo for what exactly if funding is an issue ?
If we don’t get an rns this week I’m expecting single digits. How much more can we take ? I think the price action is telling us a huge warning sign yet non of us want to be warned.
Still holding but very very fearful here as there is nothing to mka apart from songwe and the rest of the portfolio needs more money and maybe another 4-5 years to prove up ?
All I’m saying is we need to open our eyes to all possibilities.
If it was as rosy as we think then why haven’t the bod acted?
Why haven’t they raise me by now ? Maybe they can’t because Talaxis won’t want to be diluted so then what happens ?
No MDA and no raise ? Someone could walk away with our asset for nothing.
Frankly honest I’ve written off my investment and expecting the worst. Just how I see it now. If we dare hit 9p and then 8p we can’t surely be saying the same positives …can we ?
Does Talaxis have a get out of jail card? Something I have been musing over for some time but guess it would be in the detailed text which we have not seen. This is very upsetting but I am not surprised.
As a new investor and this being my first holding to be blunt I have enough of your ramblings munch. Tme and time again you make these huge outlandish predictions and hype up the situation when the reality is you are consistently wrong over and over again. I genuinely believe you don't have a clue on what you're talking about. Your "analysis" is utterly woeful, so please just stop with all your BS
Thickofit. Come on mate. It’s called investing. People invest. People have a right to voice opinions.
Nobody has posted thoughts like I have. Why are we down again today ? Another 15%
Single digits next ? Yet we think it will all come good.
Just to make you happy I’m over invested here and will look to get screwed if this goes t i t t s up but no your not bothered about that. Just the fact I post what I feel and think.
We have a major problem here and unless your intelligence can tell us a way out I suggest you listen to opinions or block me mate.
I’m not here to make friends. If no rns this week then we will keep falling and it’s got bog all to do with market conditions. Good luck. We all need more than luck right now I can tell u.
Myles shouldn’t have to speak up, he’s no different to you or me. He wants to make money and if he feels there’s weakness in the charts or heats whispers saying a placing is close then he has to protect his money a do whatever he feels correct. He may even be involved in a placing so wouldn’t be able to speak up yet.
We all use the positives from the big accounts and his research is undoubtedly the best in the business but essentially, you make YOUR decisions.
Not sure there's any point with most of the screaming and hair pulling going on today but the reality is that regular PIs are stiffed by HNW guys and gals all the time, it is what it is.
Anyway, only they know what's going on as per so we'll all be thrown around in the waves of whatever it is they're up to with this drop - soon find out, it can't/won't stay down here for long.