focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Year high 171p. Current discount almost 30%
Year results expected Feb.
Trade update showed Rev £298m (slightly below expectations), profit £67m (top end of expectations) Net cash £34.3m
What's not to like?
£9m trade just gone through, certainly looks like a buy given the spread at the time. Seems to have perked the SP up anyway. Perhaps someone knows something we don't?
Mozax me to just read naked traders latest update and as you say looks interesting
I came across this stock via Robbie Burns’s site, he’s a pretty good stock picker imo, and he picked up a chunk at 127p ( plus whatever personally)
Having researched, this looks very interesting and I’ve tucked some away in the wife’s ISA.
Let’s see what the next 12 months brings, probably a buyout!
Easy to answer that it's because I topped up at the start of the week lol
Any idea why such a drop this last week?
The Times relies on Morningstart. The FT relies on Morningstar for Funds. Again avoid
Morningstar is pretty bad at data management across the board and sells itself as a data management company. But the competition is also poor. For Funds I use trustnet, because it is a smaller subset of the data, but the quality is basically cleaner. For Shares I wouldn't touch Morningstar. Yahoo, Google and various others are so much better because they scrape the data correctly.
Mike's likely enjoying orange tangos on a Jamaican beach after a 130% gain; I can't help but spotlight ME International. Mike was spot-on about the rise of instant-service vending. #MEGP Japan acquisition from FUJIFILM isn't just a buy—it's a masterstroke, placing ME Group Japan K.K. as a market leader.
tinyurl.com/ytx9s3a7
https://x.com/lemminginvestor/status/1708828402503860690?s=46
Morningstar still lists this share as photo-me at a price of 107p. Surprised no director etc has not pointed this out!! Morningstars listings are riddled with errors and they cannot even list the yield of companies.
I have pointed this out to Morningstar/ Times/ Sunday Times several times but they do not seem to care.
Another day where the share seems all over the place, again not sure why? I had assumed, wrongly as it has turned out, that becoming a FTSE 250 company would settle things down. Still think this is an excellent share for the future, still very much in the growth phase but generating lots of free cash flow and already buying back shares as well as throwing off an impressive dividend.
i've had a think and my only conclusions are
1) the 12 july interim made clear that despite being cash rich the company was not going to offer another special dividend
2) i'm pretty sure the **** up the board made of the share buy back authorisation was not a driver to the share price movement
Schroders reduced but a very small percentage. Doesnt explain a 15p drop. Maybe just profit taking, good opportunity to add
What just happened did someone sell a chunk?
Pretty much confirms my prediction on 20th April - interim dividend 2.97p in November (I said c. 3p) and 5.94p final in May (I said c. 6p), so if you include the 0.6p special that's 9.51p in total. Trading in line with the revenue and profit upgrade announced early June, so factor in the planned growth, including recently announced acquisition, and things are looking pretty rosy here going forward.
More potentially excellent news if this all goes ahead as planned. c. £5.5 m cost for a business that should generate c. £2.2 m profit from 2024. MEGP seems to go from strength to strength.
Shares Magazine remains positive on this share too:
"...we believe there is more to come from the investments the company is making to drive further growth.
In addition, the rating of the shares does not reflect their quality or growth potential. Hewitt [Guy Hewitt, Director of Research at FinnCap] notes they trade at a 40% discount to the UK mid-cap market based on free cash flow yield. We remain positive on the stock."
Paul Scott on Stockopedia last week said still looks good value on PE of around 12.
Yes, pushed through 160 now off the back of FTSE 250 promotion. The great news continues here.
Interesting posts Velo, thanks. I would add a couple of my own:
- Given how strong the first-half performance has been, I think there's still scope for further upgrades to t/o and profit forecasts in the current financial year, as there were last year.
- The dividend is based on profit after tax, so every upgrade impacts yield as well as capital gains.
This is looking like an excellent investment IMHO.
Looking great on the chart, primed for a breakout. Also addition to the FTSE 250 should be positive for SP
Warren Buffet, always goes on about only buying/holding stocks where there is a sufficient "Margin of Safety" in the SP (ie., where the SP sits below that Margin of Safety) which he picked up from his guru tutor back in the 1950's, the late, great, Ben Graham.
This is generally acknowledged today, as the DCF - the Discounted Cashflow method of calculating to see that sentiment hasn't driven an SP beyond the Margin of Safety.
Loads and loads of versions of it on Youtube - all of them will make your eyes bleed :)
I had one for years but gave it up due to the mandatory guessing of FUTURE interest rates ( an impossible task IMO).
W.Buffett, of course, has a neat homily to persuade you to stick with the calculation on every stock you buy or monitor, whilst acknowledging the inadequacy of guessing future interest rates, he opines:
'Better to be roughly right, than precisely wrong'.
- And boy! Have I been wrong on MEGP back in its PHTM days of holding it!
So these days I leave the free sites to number crunch the fair value. Some time back I noticed they were spouting £1.66 as fair value (as always analysts were way different).
Just checked and currently fair value via the DCF is coming out at circa £1.75
So ultimately, still meat on the bone SP-wise.
Analysts' current consensus opinion is showing as £1.80
Checked with my subscription package for the v latest analysts' estimates and it's showing the consensus as £1.82
So, in summary, Fair Value is coming out as £1.75
with sentiment-driven analysts forecasting £1.82 area . . . - currently!
What will they revise to, when the actual hard figures alluded to in yesterday's trading update are published in July for the H1?
- £2?
- £2++???
:)
- or to remain below £2?
Bit fell off the end as used up the maximum text alowance. Lst para should have read as:
. . . (I’m betting that after the H1 results next month the following year’s 2024 forecasts will also be duly increased in line with the new H1 actual results achieved; with a resultant impact on the SP).
Yes, well done indeed!
Only posting this to highlight the great potential for a further SP increase after the trading update on July 17th when the H1 result is published, and that would be in relation for next year, not the current year, solely due to the new figures suggested in the trading update.
In this latest trading update, it’s stated that the new Revenue increase is expected for the full year to be in the region of £300m to £320m
- And a pre-tax Net Profit increase in the region of £64m to £67m
- - - - - - -
And it’s those two headings that have the potential to beat even 2024’s forecasts, let alone this current year’s that completes on Oct 31st!
REVENUE:
Last year, Revenue achieved was reported as £260m which was a terrific increase on the year prior to that (of £214m).
The old forecast for revenue for the full year (until this morning’s update was for a very nice revenue of £293m).
- that was already a nice forecast increase on last year’s £260m.
So now this morning’s update is for over £300m+ you can see part of the reason for the immediate impact on the SP today.
What probably isn’t yet widely acknowledged in the public domain is that the revenue forecast for next year (2024) is currently standing for revenue of £315m.
Now this is where the double whammy kicks in.
Should the revenue come in at anywhere near the upper end of the updated guidance of £320m then the SP would be due for a second kick upstairs on July 17th on publication of the H1 results - as it would instantly mean that a new forecast for 2024 would be in the offing to increase the 2024 forecasts too - as it had just been surpassed by 2023’s result!
I’ll leave the implications for that double whammy to sink in whilst I move on to the Pre-tax Profit trading update.
PRE-TAX PROFIT:
- Is now updated to expect £64m to £67m.
Last year Pre-Tax Profit was £53.4m
(Which in itself was almost double that of the prior year! That resulted in Net profits of £38.8m after taxes etc.,)
Don’t have next year’s pre-tax profit forecasts to hand, but I do have access to next year’s net profit forecasts -
Net Profit forecast for the current year I’m seeing as £43.9m
And that is based on an impressive old revenue forecast of £293m which has just been updated to north of £300m+
(So is it fair to expect an increase on that £43.9m net profit for 2024?
The reason I ask that is because the forecast for next year’s net profit is currently for £48.8m. Will that too be increased?
I daren’t post a guess what ‘24 actual pre-tax profit could come in at, but that’s where the double whammy effect would have it’s most impact on the SP after this July 17th when we get to see the actual H1 half-way results achieved.
(I’m betting that after the H1 results next month, then the following year’s 2024 forecasts will also be duly increased in line with the new H1 actual results achieved; with
Lots of tiddly dividends beginning to add up now. At 133p the yield must be around 7-8% now?