Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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If it's any consolation to those of you who paid around 1.20 - some of us have an average of 2.20...
Some of us also held this through the rise to 3.20 and have watched it tumble since.
Well I opted to hold despite not wanting to be dragged into this ticker for another 12 months. That said, I think the presentation and outlook pointed towards a much more positive H1. So maybe a few more months in the doldrums.
If the Cosmens were going to make a play for the business I honestly think you'd be seeing it now. I think they simply secured a nice little nest-egg. No-one can buy the company without their blessing so where-ever the SP goes, it can't really fall prey to anything hostile or activist.
JG: Given the stress this one has caused you - and not investment advice of course, your money your choice etc - but in your shoes I would perhaps think about letting go of those 54's you added yesterday, when (hopefully when, of course!) we return to 67p ish territory. Nice little profit and a slight re-balance of the p/f in that scenario.
Of course, that does risk sacrificing some of the upside, but it might be worth at least having a target exit price in mind for at least some of your total holding, IMO.
Anyway, I hope you do not mind my interjection. It is only made with good intentions.
Hopefully we have another positive day here. GLA.
JG if you showed those holdings to anyone in 30 of the 31 years this has been a listed company they would look magnificent. Sadly it is 2024
Very similar boat Paadyboy.
Mine are in 3 lots.
In the isa I had 50k at 120s, doubled in Oct at 58, and added another 30k at 54 yesterday. And the other largish one has 80k at 75, thinking about making that one a round 100 which would make it 71 if i add at 55. The other is about 55 in a sipp.
So similar amounts. Then that's it.
The problem arises if/when your holdings turn green, missing out on the rich rewards by selling a load because you think you've won the lottery by being break even again.
So smokeytime you're no alone.
JG, Hindsight is a wonderful thing. My holding is essentially in 2 chunks. A load bought mainly between 115-130 & another load between 56-85. I had a break from buying until it had dropped into the 80s. I should have sliced a good few at 90 but we can all say that after the event. I will buy another couple of chunks if it drops below the 50 but otherwise i'm well overweight now so once it starts rising i will start paring some of the holding down as admittedly i'm way over exposed on this investment. I agree with your sentiment. Possible danger of a CR but we're safe for a good while i think & i had convinced myself they were going to drop that clanger yesterday. If the macro improves we should see this steadily upturn. Look at how it went up again after the first dip to the 50s. Steadily back up to 90s. The 30 year chart is very telling on this share * i see no reason why we are not now at a similar position like it was in 2009 then steady growth YOY to 2020. Hopefully that will be replicated this time around!
Too right paddyboy.
I've been winding myself for too long here , worrying too much only exacerbated by further paper losses, but I just ask myself 2 questions, do I need access to any of the money for at least another 2 years, no I don't, and do I think they will go BK, no I don't, I think it's reasonable to suggest they could sell Alsa now and completely wipe our the debt if they wanted to. Worst scenario I see is future cash raise if business doesn't improve in next 2 years and interest rates rise further resulting in difficulties when some of the debt becomes due. Not to mention the NA disposal.
I don't really get why sone people say they are living off their debt given the undrawn RCF and 284 million in cash.
I was actually at break even on my largest holding in January, didn't sell so it's suck it up time!!
JG, Most of us want jam tomorrow. It very rarely works like that in this game & i do believe the best investments are the ones held for long periods. In 2 years never mind 5 i would imagine very few of the commentators here now would be anywhere to be seen. For most weary longer term holders i suspect yesterday's stuff was a bit of a relief just to see where it's all at. As i see it this company has lots going for it. Strong brand; very little competition; price inelastic. The financing is all in place for the next 5 years so all that is needed is a prudent & responsible management to deliver what they need to. My view is this is one to accumulate at these silly prices with cash you don't need for a few years & just forget about it. When people bought Rolls Royce @40-50p you had the same people saying the same things about debt, bankruptcy etc & it's now £4. If people don't think the management here can turn this around they should sell what they have or don't invest in it & go to those 'better' investments which people hark on about!
"The provision isn't just a write off; it will have significant cash outflows associated"
A provision isnt a write off.
A provision is a liability for a future known cost
Once that cost is paid ( cash outflow) the corresponding provision amount is removed , as it is no longer a liability
I don't mean to paint a bleak picture. The numbers are just underwhelming at this stage.
I broadly agree there is good recovery potential. Still, treading water in meantime.
Sneedway
It's not as bleaker a picture you're painting imo.
Re the Germany provisions, the cash outflow will be 30mill for 24 and 11 million thereafter.
There is an expected loss of 5 mill expected for 24 and then a return to profit 25 onwards.
A large part of the adjusted items (78 million) affecting cashflows were one off non recurring.
They still manged to oay the bills comfortably with debt stable. That in itself will result in a reduction in debt this FY 24 out of the additional FCF.
The guidance of 185 to 205 I feel is very conservative, with the lower end considered by them as very pessimistic.
Impression I got was the different divisions are at different stages of recovery, and 24 is a further recovery year, with 25 being in much better shape.
This doesn't assume a successful NA sale.
Plus come the end of this year some of these unprofitable contracts can either be renegotiated or just dumped!!
Imo for a company that is forecasting say 200 mill OP this year with good FCF to pay the bills,50 odd p is dirt cheap if you give a 18-24 month timescale.
But what do I know, I'm 10s of thousands in the red!!!
UK bus and german rail are basically in limbo for the next year. The provision isn't just a write off; it will have significant cash outflows associated. US bus is recovering rather slowly and a quick/good sale is now less likely given margins haven't yet improved at FY. Only ALSA is thriving. So there isn't really anything on the horizon to boost the sharp price.
Paired with interest rates keeping higher for now, I expect that is the reasoning for increasing shorts.
I don't get what are they betting on increasing their shorts...on a BK??....on the macro worsening??Strange
Ridiculously overpriced!!!
Insane.