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I'm not so sure. Why did DBay dump a chunk of their holding before? 48M shares as I recall. Seems odd. Maybe they were de-risking their investment or just needed operating funds?
I think we worked out a while ago that LDG should now be worth about 20p a share but as we see now trading just over 13p. Assuming they went ahead with another buyback of say 64M shares at let's say an average of 15p, that's about another £10M eroded from the remaining cash pot that we estimated was about £99M plus the CTH investment of £13.1M. The remaining value of LDG would then be around £102M all in, with around 498M shares in issue = 20.48p/share. Not a massive difference to where it is now.
I still think DBay would dump another chunk to take profit from their investment and all the time the remaining cash is doing nothing it is being eroded by inflation like all of our savings. Unless LDG invest the pot this will become worthless eventually IMO.
It will be interesting to see what unfolds.
If DBAY wanted to extract full value they would wind use their influence on the Board and their vote to get an open offer at a price near P/TNAV of about 20p or force a wind up. I’m frankly confused why it was in their best interest to dump a portion of their holding at about 16p. If they buyback at current prices that will increase the cash per share which is good for shareholders not looking to get out. At some stage value will out here one way or the other. Those chasing a quick buck might be better off gambling elsewhere
@ zoolook
To be honest I hadn't read what the Resolutions were (special or otherwise) just assumed it was a box ticking exercise, apologies.
Another buyback? Interesting. What makes you think it would be more successful than the last one, when they bought back 140M shares? Could just be another effort to raise the SP to enable DBay to unload another lot of their holding at top price. Beware is all I would say.
If they go ahead I would get out as soon as the SP peaks. I missed out nearly 2p a share on the last buyback, could have had nearly 16p, sold at almost 14p when it fell back.
They passed the authority to buyback up to 62,544,552 shares. That’s exciting enough for me.
RNS posted at 2:08, all resolutions passed.
Nothing more exciting than that.
Anyone heard anything from the AGM no RNS yet?
Hi eviking, yep, still here.
No longer invested here but keeping an eye. Not posted here for a while as so little happening I slipped into a coma!
Much like the SP, seems to be slowly sleep-walking back towards 13p.
It seems such a shame after all the early hope when they offloaded Stobart then had the buyback to close the discounted SP to NAV and had £134M in the bank. Sad.
My guess is they (DBay and LDG) are still mulling over the potential buyout of CareTech - if that happens it will do wonders for CTH holders but probably not a lot for LDG holders. Only time will tell.
Mind you, wishing I was still invested here as my other holdings are having a terrible time, I'd still be in profit with LDG!!
Strange times.
pat still tjhere?
Hi Patshare
Sorry - I misunderstood your sums. Yes about 20p per share (before running costs) up from last declared 19p in November so 5% improvement in 5 months.
Thanks Patshare,
Not following your workings. If the CTH holding is worth £14.8m at a 750p takeout price and you subtract the 340k fee that’s £14.46m to LDG.
I’m also not sure what you mean by the share price being worse. Surely it’s better if you are a buyer :-) Where else can you buy £1 for 70p?
@zoolook - sorry, looks like I got my £23M from typing in the wrong price! Bl**dy novice!!
Without analysing every buyback RNS my best guess would be they paid around 15p on average, so total approx £21M, does that sound right?
Also, I quoted the CTH investment as the figure they have paid and not what it's worth currently, thought best not to include a paper gain.
Making those adjustments with Dbay taking 20% of the CTH gain actually makes the current SP even worse: £132M -£13.1M - £21M +13.1M + £1.7M - £340K (20% to Dbay) = £112.36M / 562M shares = 20p per share.
I still think the (revised) £21M could have been put to better use but guess we will never know, hindsight always being right etc. and what the markets do is anyone's guess, could have turned out even worse without the buyback.
On the plus side I made some money and didn't lose any here so not all bad eh?
I think the buying back shares well below the cash-per-share price was a good decision as it was an effective way to increase the cash per share price and it was the LDG Board’s ultimate decision, not DBAYs.
There is a limit to how much the Board can be held accountable for the share price. The market does what the market does and sometimes what it does is irrational leading to mispricing (long May that continue!)
Where I think the Board should be accountable is failing to proactively communicate the new investment case to the market and why investors should be interested above and beyond the asset backing and allay concerns about the relationship with DBay.
An inscrutable majority shareholder using their own decision of a buyback to buy their own shares using the cash reserves ultimately leaving us at the same SP as before, DBAY have a lot to answer for.
I think the more fundamental existential
question posed by the persistent low market price per share vs the price per share value is whether it should be listed at all. The appetite for a vehicle which has an inscrutable majority shareholder which is also making all the investment decisions is very low otherwise the share price would be close to the NAV.
I’m very tempted to go to the AGM
Patshare - where did you get your £23m from? That would mean they paid an average of 16.4p per share - which they haven’t.
Also the Caretech investment of £13.1m is likely to be worth £14.8m (with DBay taking 20% of the £1.7m uplift)
Was it all worth it? Good question.
Before the buyback LDG had £132M in the bank, give or take, but the SP was discounted relative to that figure, so they announced a buyback of 140 million shares to close the gap. It worked to a degree but look where it is now.
LDG/DBay have invested £13.1M in CareTech and spent approx. £23M buying back the 140M shares. They should have roughly £95M in the bank and the £13.1M invested, so about £108M all up; with 562M shares in issue the value per share should still be around 19p but it isn't, now dropped below 14p again.
So what was the real point of spending £23M buying back shares that could have been put to better use investing in something?
Good question, sadly I don't know the answer.
Anyone have any idea?
I'm still keeping an eye here even though I sold...... I thought that might happen with CTH, I would expect DBay to increase their offer very slightly now to maybe 755p or 760p but don't think they would want to go much higher than that.
And still no idea if they would be using any of LDG's remaining cash to do so.
Will keep watching to see what unfolds here.
I think the deadline for a formal offer is the first week of May, I expect the price to creep up leading into that if a deal is on the cards involving Ldg.
If successful with Caretech bid, I can't see why Dbay wouldn't use the cash in this company to finance the purchase.
Seems logical to me.
The mechanics behind how they do this, I'm not sure, but interested to see what happens in the next couple of months.
Still can't find any reason for downside at this point.
All the best PatShare.
Ryno - which ‘decent company’ are you referring to?
There's nothing to worry about here, if the company was to close you'd get about 19p a share. They've made one investment and already that's returned profit. They are potentially investing in a decent company further, with news due beginning of May latest. The last year the share price has gone from 7p to hanging around 15p. The people making the decisions own a quarter of the shares. Tell me the negative and why anyone would sell, apart from nerve.
Patshare it may turn out to be wise. I still have hope but think it may be a long term hold.
Sods law on thr new investment!!
*from
Jeez, I hate typos!!
Sorry Leedsman, just felt I had to do something.... anything....
If it's any consolation the investment I made with the capital form the LDG sale has already gone down!
I'm beginning to think I'm not very good at this......
Still a bit disappointed I could have had almost 16p here 2 days ago but not to worry, I can live with the outcome whatever happens.
Cheers!