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NickE,i do not think their is much of an overhang left here, as with all AIM placings most was pre-sold anyway long before announced. All i am saying is the recent surge in gold prices will have focussed minds even further on available prized assets and we should standby for fireworks , the TK funding is somewhat of a side issue to a buyer because they would sort their own funding in a heartbeat . That is the risk that the current consortium are running by the delays and will serve them right if the assets are taken from right under their noses by a larger outfit. I am sure Harry will do very well out of it should this takeover happen and still be involved at the sharp end.
Consider this, if Newmont or Allied wanted to assemble some shovel ready assets in both Saudi and Ethiopia what would they need to pay and how long would it take them to do it and reach commerciality levels ? i suspect it would cost them more than 3 times value of Kefi market value and take them 5 years or more just to get all the licences ,drilling permissions,and permits etc let alone be anywhere near producing anything.....we know that both Saudi and Ethiopia are now being eyed by the worlds largest miners for some large investments into the sector in those countries...with a buyout of Kefi than can get right into the action for a fraction of the cost and on a timescale to beneft from the bullish foreseeable gold price.
It is game on here IMO
Five Candles, I agree that Kefi will probably become a takeover target for its assets sometime this year but I would just caution on expecting it near term as opposed to the medium term. The big players aren't always the fastest to act but we do know HA is starting to get unsolicited deals offered in Saudi in particular. I don't think anyone will make a move for Kefi until TK is sorted and I don't mind that as there are plenty of other drivers of the shares this year aside from a takeover. Much better to get takeover interest from a higher share price base.
What will propel the share in the near to medium term? Removal of the placing overhang followed by the second bank's initial and full lending approval, further Saudi discoveries and, perhaps the biggest factor, a change of sentiment towards the junior gold mining sector on the back of a strong and rising gold price.
This link is one of the best bits of analysis I have seen regarding the junior sector and the interview was done in January and his gold price analysis has been spot on (no pun intended!).
Jeff Clark highlights that last year was the worst performance for junior miners but anticipates a sharp turn in sentiment for the sector this year as the gold price gets above $2200. He suggests that as sector sentiment changes many of the junior gold miners could triple. He's been right on the gold price and I suspect he'll be right on the junior mining sector as well. For Kefi it could be a very good year on both the micro and macro level.
https://investingnews.com/jeff-clark-gold-silver-forecast/
NickE, in business there is no sentiment mate, it comes down to pure economics ,kefi has prized assets that others want which they would have difficulty and be far more expensive to source elsewhere - that is the bottom line . Harry,s role could be carried over into the new company should that be desired,but the big difference for him would be having the financial resources on tap to fully exploit these fantastic opportunities with that key first mover advantage. Do we think the likes of Newmont or Allied would be interested in taking over Kefi fully ? Of course they would because their other potential routes into both Saudi and Ethiopia would cost them a heck of alot more and take several more years even to get at the stage Kefi are at now.
For those reasons we are a PRIME target right now and we could be on the very cusp of some exciting new developments indeed IMVHO, the market will respond accordingly with the real possibilty of several baggers pending here.
I agree eventually FOMO and a more bullish sentiment toward Kefi and junior miners in general will kick in.
We'll see if it happens as quickly as you think Five Candles. I think firstly the overhang from the placing needs to be removed and, secondly, I think any predator will wait to see TK over the funding line.
We'll see the share price move on the former. I don't know the extent of the overhang but no doubt a fair bit was forward sold. A few high-volume days should do it. Then, after TK funding, I do believe Kefi will be in play and from a higher share price base as well.
HA's comments about being approached by companies offering deals at Saudi conferences suggest it's far from guesswork. On the contrary, it sounds like serious interest is already starting to happen now. Just need to throw a change of sentiment toward junior miners into the mix and the share price will get interesting. Logic suggests that it should happen as the juniors have had a rough time for many years but hopefully, there should be a tailwind for the sector from the buoyant gold price to change that. It's well overdue.
Just TOTAL guesswork, Five - why bother?
🤔
NickE, I agree with most of your comments there, as for what Harry would do in the event of an offer ? i think logic would dictate that he would know a larger company taking over would get all his dreams come to fruition alot quicker and no doubt would be keen to work with whoever buys us. Not only will it be a big payday for us but also for him too with his notable in Kefi.
It is game on here now, will we just sit here on a lowly valuation till the big RNS in around 8 weeks time ? or will one of those "known parties looking for Saudi assets" take us out beforehand. My logic tells me to standby for an offer for the company and that it will be a fair one ( given a new entrant into Saudi would have to spend the equiv of near our market cap just to get un-proven territory with licences ) .That is why any offer might far exceed the figures that have been muted on here so far let alone the 4p+ that Ethiopia should re-rate us to.
We will see much FOMO here next week imvho and a possibilty of several days in a row high on the leaderboard, as folks absorb what could be about to happen. All IMVHO
Just going by HA's words in the Investor Meet presentation there is a distinct possibility of an offer. The surging gold price only increases that possibility.
Harry said in respect to Saudi in particular:- "There is pegging all around us. Companies are coming to conferences, strutting around and offering us deals and so on."
That was when he was saying what a joy the work currently is compared to the difficulties in the extreme during the civil war in Ethiopia and before the sea change in the Saudi approach to overseas miners. He makes the key point that the banks remained supportive during the civil war and remain so as funding formalities are awaited now.
Earlier in the presentation he said they didn't anticipate selling but acknowledged Kefi is a public company with a duty to maximise value for shareholders. He knows if a decent formal offer came he would be duty-bound to put it to shareholders. I don't think he wants to sell because he said he envisages shareholders including himself of course getting dividends once the mines are in production. He's also aware that Kefi will almost certainly have an NPV well into double figures when in production and the share price will reflect that and probably even be above NPV.
It's easy to say that the current share price might mean a low bid but, realistically, any interested party would have to make a bid that would succeed and that means one that would be recommended to shareholders by the board - in effect HA. I am sure he doesn't want offers and wants to see things through to production, but a 3p to 4p offer right now would almost certainly be successful. I guess the ideal scenario is that sentiment toward junior miners changes in line with the gold price increase and Kefi trades at around 3p with offers around 5p plus coming in and being more palatable to HA.
He did say that he wouldn't be averse to selling down in TK but, in terms of an outright sale, added that Kefi has social responsibilities in Ethiopia. I don't see that as a barrier to a takeover as any acquirer just inherits the social responsibilities and is obliged to ensure they are upheld.
Https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-03-28/china-has-taken-over-gold-price-control-west
https://www.2merkato.com/news/energy-and-mining/7752-ethiopia-four-companies-awarded-mining-licenses
https://www.facebook.com/MinesandPetroleum
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-03-27/king-dollar-gets-castrated-under-bretton-woods-3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53U5Y9z06v8 (gold charts and trends section)
Https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-03-28/african-gold-miners-shouldnt-be-judged-geopolitical-risk-alone-allied-gold (Video interview Ethiopia mining)
Allied wants to get bigger asked about mining M & A.
Simms45, you are over thinking things here IMO , the bottom line for a potential buyer will purely come down to what they are prepared to pay for the assets. A secondary consideration for them will be the structure of the share register and if there are any "legacy issues" with the financial set-up of the company and of course any borrowings etc. In the case of Kefi i am glad to report that it gets a positive tick in each of those boxes and thus a genuine glowing gem of a takeover target. And also consider that Harry would likely be offered a new position in the new management should they consider he is useful in keeping him involved.
Would a potential buyer be waiting for Kefi to re-rate in several weeks time ? - or would they be pro-active and get the ball rolling very near term ( now ) and secure a deal for a much better price. Common sense suggests it would be the latter surely,so that is why i am getting quite excited about what could be about to happen here. There is a real possible scenario that any current holders here with shares under 1p could soon be sitting on a 4-5 bagger IMVHO.
Its game on for Kefi now,it will be interesting to see what happens here when the markets re-open after the easter break ,i suspect there will be alot of FOMO going on and also many current holders looking to get sizable top-ups before it really takes off in price.
Given the 20% ownership by EG and the extremely high levels of trust placed in Kefi board it would take a very serious buyer to venture into this myriad of investors. I just do not see TK being realistically sold early doors as its just too complex for Harry to exit left. Once built and operating it might be a different story but awarded licenses to Kefi in Ethiopia are linked to good behaviour so Kefi would need the EG full buy in for any deal to materialise. I just want to see real binding signatures as end of May and end of June feels a little close to the wire if the plan is to complete the financing. i am starting to see de ja vu and its because of how slow things are going. In Ethiopia over a 5 year period you are bound to have serious issues so Harry needs to make everything happen in May and not constantly keep pushing dates from Q1 to H1 and i suspect Q3 turns into H2. I really hope Harry can deliver by June,
Most likeliest is Ivanhoe Electric either on their own or in partnership with Ma’aden as they will know how good Kefis Geo team are and they have license areas next to kefis so know how good kefi prospects are. They can then sell of the Ethiopian side to Allied gold if they do not fancy it themselves. Even with a sub 100 million dollar market cap every discovery kefi makes and every increase in the gold price increase the chance of a takeover.
I'd quite like to see an offer at a reasonable price. Based on the presentation answers I suspect there is tentative interest.
Harry mentioned in the presentation that there were a lot of new arrivals in both Saudi and Ethiopia. He added that he was getting all sorts of offers. Not firm takeover offers presumably as that would have to be announced but probably JV's etc. or perhaps even some parties doing some tentative sounding out. If the gold price advances or even stabilises around current levels then the interest is only likely to increase.
Without any sizeable institutions in the Company it would be P.I's who would determine the outcome of a bid. The board would either recommend acceptance or rejection to shareholders. At current levels, 2.5p to 3p might well succeed. I get the impression HA wants to see it through to production and is looking for a share price that is approaching or even above NPV which might well be 10p plus after Saudi feasibility studies allow for an NPV for those assets. So it's an ideal time for an acquirer to get Kefi on the cheap. Realistically, any offer is likely to come once TK funding is finalised.
Aside from Newmont, the likes of Barrick and MA'ADEN (Saudi Arabian Mining Co) might be interested. It might well be the Saudis who are the likeliest acquirer given they have pledged to invest USD10-billion in African mining projects over the next five years.
https://www.africanmining.co.za/2024/03/01/saudi-arabia-investing-in-african-mining/#:~:text=The%20Kingdom%20is%20aiming%20to,Vision%202030%20economic%20diversification%20plan.
Gold still holding over 2200 not far off highest ever price.
A large company with deep pockets would sort TK finance and be in production next year producing significant profits & cashflow. They could also move at pace in Saudi with all the licences we hold. I'd settle for 3p a share in a heart beat! lol
I was using the 2.5p as a lowball base price,not what i think would actually happen because there will likely be more than one interested parties in a complete buyout of Kefi. Will be more like 3.5p to 4p levels IMVHO
I dont think many lth .would accept much less than 5p per share .2.5pis a joke .An overall profit but a joke for years invested .imo
Of course ,when it comes to a T/O it comes down purely to what you get for your money,and i could argue that Kefi offers perhaps one of the best opportunities around in terms of value for money. Even a lowball 2.5p offer i would suggest be accepted by most holders here. Just saying its a possible outcome here.
Lol. The could buy us now if they wanted to. You need to ask yourselves the big question, why haven't they?
That answer is probably the same as many shareholders have annotated so succinctly on here.