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Rastuss......I am just willing to be mugged by bully boy tactics. Why would anyone sell now at 640 if that is what the offer is. There is no way that offer will be reduced, they know they are stealing the company at that price and I think once their sneaky tactics fail a better offer will be forthcoming.
That announcement amounts to market abuse, surely! FCA should now get involved. And the Takeover Panel too should get a close look at how independent those directors on the committee are, particularly Andrew Southam. The company is hell bent on appeasing Kim and Novachok to help them steal it from us. It's not going anywhere! Shareholders revolt is coming.
They must think we all came down the Clyde on a banana boat! WTF do they think we are all stupid ? Even more determined to hang on to my large holding. 640 way under values KAZ. I have held here for over 10 years and my investments are long term and not interested in a quick buck. Dont get mugged. Sadly it seems a few folk are.
Basically accept 640 as it's the best offer on the table. No way, i'll wait thank you very much
I don't normally post - I prefer to lurk :)
But I just wanted to add my voice to the chorus of retail investors who believe that 640p is fundamentally undervaluing the business. I'm waiting for Baimskaya.
https://www.ft.com/content/23d9dac5-ff9c-47b7-8061-e92d9067b389
personally, I am holding on to most of my stock for scenario 2, but have sold a small fraction at current prices to be ready to buy back if scenario 3 played out. 1 is most unlikely, 2 is most likely and 3 I would give a weightage of 33%.
or may be you may want to wait for scenario 3 to play out and be ready to buy when deal is off the table and the stock drops for 1-2 days by 10%
yes at 640 p with changed circumstances, Covid vaccines, all markets up by 8-10%.
what may happen.
scenario 1 shareholders sign up and takeover happens at 640 p. This was likely before but unlikely now as shareholders expect more and changed circumstances would mean that they are likely to vote against.
Scenario 2 There might be an upward revision of price by 10-20% (wild guess) and then shareholders might take it...
Scenario 3 the deal might not go through in which case there will be a momentarily drop in price as most speculators would want to go out of the stock and stock drops by 10-12%. I think given copper prices and the general market environment the price will bounce back very quickly to the current level or higher.
Is it worth putting more money into Kaz since the offer stands at 640??
Copper prices likely to rise amidst a good macro background
- Company is being acquired, do not think shareholders will take it
- If i am wrong, we get a free 1-2% return off a short runway
- If i am right, fundamentally strong company
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Highly levered company against floating interest rate terms
- 3+% dividend yield in a low interest rate environment
- DCF model gives a +27.44% margin of safety with low growth expectations
drive.google.com/file/d/1RcpbZPa_pjGI7GPvOusWbkHAUGwz3XTi/view?usp=sharing
I have entered with 5% of my portfolio with an additional 5% ready should prices drop to a good level.
thanks @Benoak for the feedback!
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RcpbZPa_pjGI7GPvOusWbkHAUGwz3XTi/view
I came across this analysis by an investor on the etoro platform, and it swayed my decision to hold the stock and await further developments, as it seems there is a real possibility of thwarting this corporate action.
Similar trick was played in the past with their interest in Eurasian Natural Resources, wasn't it?
Why would anyone want to accept 640 for their holding. KAZ is trading at a huge discount at the moment due all the Covid and US election unrest.
I hold KAZ as a long term investment and not to make a quick buck. My shares are not up for grabs till someone offers me a fair market price and 640 ain't that. Don't get mugged.
This is a but like when an insurance company makes you an offer for your written off car......never accept the first offer, always more money in the pot to come your way. KAZ is not a write off.
Kaz Minerals Takeover Faces Resistance From Another Investor
Wed, 11th Nov 2020 19:14Alliance News
(Alliance News) - Kaz Minerals PLC GBP3.0 billion buyout from Nova Resources BV faced additional investor opposition on Tuesday, after a Russia-based shareholder said the offer does not reflect the miner's value.
CFC Management LLC, an investment advisor representing a 3.6% stake in Kaz, said its clients will vote against the deal.
"CFC Management's clients object to the current offer price and believe that it does not reflect the company's fair value and growth potential," CFC said on Wednesday.
CFC Chief Executive Officer Ekaterina Chernova added that Nova's 640 pence per share offer "takes advantage" of the fact that Kaz's stock has been hit by Covid-19 an US election uncertainty in recent months.
Kaz Minerals shares closed 1.5% at 640p each on Thursday and are up 20% so far this year. Shares traded as low as 269.10p in March.
On Monday, RWC Partners, holder of a roughly 3% stake in Kaz, also said the offer undervalues the firm.
Nova Resources is a company owned by a consortium comprising Kaz Minerals Chair Oleg Novachuk and Non-Executive Director Vladimir Kim.
The acquisition is conditional on gaining at least 75% in shareholder approval at both the court meeting and general meeting, which is expected to be held either in December or early January 2021.
It also needs the receipt of antitrust clearances and regulatory approvals, as well as the scheme being sanctioned by the High Court of Justice in England and Wales.
I will be rejecting this deal, KAZ is worth far more than the initial offer price.....these guys are trying it on.....don’t get mugged.
I think Rastuss ,share holders will be put in a position to sell. like that film pale rider, have to watch, the run the company will other wise be run down to suit , outside looking in now.
Cunningfox, you are right, but to get that bonus of a higher buyout price you need to not just keep your shares but also make sure you vote against the offer to force Kim to table a better offer!
And nothing is guaranteed, because if they don't, then we all keep our shares and then the price will revert to trading in correlation to where the copper price will be trading at that time...
Rasstus, the deal is being done through what is known as "scheme of arrangement". You can google it to educate yourself on how this differs from a "takeover offer" but in short, to get the deal done, the target company (KAZ) needs to go to the court and ask a permission to reorganise its capital in such a way that would give 100% ownership to the bidders (after they pay the offer price to other shareholders, of course). Bidders cannot vote at the court hearing, but other shareholders can, and for the deal to pass, 75% of voting shareholders need to vote for it. So if 25% of those able to vote (which equates to just over 15% of the issued share capital in KAZ case) vote against the deal, the scheme is rejected by the court, and no shares change hands. Every shareholder keeps their current shares and the company remains listed.
What you are talking about is a takeover offer, where bidders make an offer to shareholders to buy their shares at a predetermined price, and they, shareholders, can then either tender their shares into the offer or not. In a takeover offer, bidders would have a target - say, to achieve 75% holding - and the offer would be then successful if enough shareholders tendered their shares for the bidders to reach that target. And if reached, the bidders would then have those shares, and under UK law, if they got >90% or all shares, they can then execute a compulsory squeeze out procedure to make the remaining 10% sell their shares to them, thus reaching 100% ownership and then remove the company from listing.
Kim and Novachuk have chosen to do their deal via a scheme of arrangement (but they did say in the announcement that they might switch to a takeover offer at any time). So, if 15% of shareholders vote at the court hearing against the deal, K&N would need to either table a new, higher, offer and try to get it through the courts at a new hearing, or they could switch to making a takeover offer, also at a higher price, of course, but it's much harder for them to buy 100% and take the company private that way. This is because only 10% of shareholders not accepting their offer is needed for the company to remain listed (although it might be then demoted from a premium listing, but that's a different story).
Hope this helps.
so looks like it might be worth hanging in here, it's a win win either way, 640 is guaranteed, anymore is a bonus
Indeed great news, as long as you and the rest of us don't sell @hash I think we can all take credit if by some miracle we all pull this off!
ATB
Bottled
I sold out at just under 630p I wasn’t happy as thought it was undervalued but presumed the takeover at 640p was guaranteed. I thought I’d invest elsewhere rather than wait for the additional 10p but missed the uptick from Monday onwards. I’ve just now reinvested back at 640, I’ve lost a few shares but think there could be potential for a better offer. Good luck all.
this is great... the share is above 640 so market is acknowledging that the takeover is not guaranteed...
wish i could take some credit for this........
Because another major shareholder with 3.6% just went public saying they too will be voting against the proposed offer. Now Russians are not happy with Kim and Novachuk buying this on a cheap. If more shareholders support the vote against, Kim would have to up his bid.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-kaz-minerals-m-a-shareholders/more-kaz-minerals-shareholders-to-vote-against-buyout-plan-idUKKBN27R1MU
Why the sudden up tick to the agreed 640p