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Best not to frighten the horses then, Craig...
@smose
"...I believe that the drop in commodity price has been overdone..."
Only a short term drop - be patient, all will come good...
https://www.mining.com/copper-price-keeps-soaring-despite-chinas-attempt-to-cool-rally/
IMO ATB Shorn
Since price below 17p, I have re-adjusted my portfolio (which have been heavily invested in JLP>SLP>THS), to sell SLP and THS, several times, including yesterday and this morning.
I believe that the drop in commodity price has been overdone more for JLP than the other shares, so the upside in the coming weeks will be more for JLP.
I'm not transferring any fund from other sectors.
No I’m already 50k down from recent highs so it would suck.
I’m just trying to understand the price movements at the moment.
Would you like that, Craig?
One needs to bear in mind that JLP doesn't operate in a vacumn. Commodity prices have come off from their highs and tech shares have gained some attention. So some of the selling is bound to be rotation of money.
Hard to watch this but we all know that there is value to the Company, it's shares and the projects set to come on stream in the next six months. Even though almost my entire (>90%) consists of JLP, I'm happy to hold. I am and have bought more shares which I will hopefully offload to someone at higher prices (circa 21p) and keep my core holding.
GLA
Surprised we have dropped further and toying with a 5th top up since last highs - the 100DMA line is pretty much where we just dropped to - hoping that will act as the support for this phase. Given we have not had any warnings or revisions on expected progress announced, the operational update due mid July should trigger a strong re-rate - hence my dilemma as to whether to go further overweight on this share.
GLA
NtD
I would say we're bang on support now, which was resistance around 9th April and support on the 29th.
Problem is this is not drifting downwards. We are approaching 30% down from recent highs.
The SP dropped through the last support from what I can tell with very little resistance.
So where are we going now 13p???
I need to try and release some funds to top up. 20% upside to take us back to 21p
They will sumo and in fact create a great upward trend. We will be in a different league financially! Great news reported this week by Dorf and Shiner. Cyprus would seem to be on the cusp of reality! The geographical intent here is incredible. The speed of movement already seems insane! I feel this set of figures will announce to the world how quick Jubes is expanding accelerating and printing money. They will scream get in now cause this is moving at an alarming pace! Never been seen before in the metals sector!! Growth on growth. You can only imagine how many new projects will be introduced next year!!
Mikie, as long as they stop the current downward drift they would be very welcome!
Does anyone remember building a sand castle on the beach? With elaborate moats and walls trying to repel the advancing sea! Hours of work, planning and ambition thwarted in seconds with a seemingly advancing tidal wave that cannot be stopped! Returning time and time again to destroy any evidence of your once mighty and glorious sand castle!! I wonder what the Chinese are calling their sand castle?? Looming demand will overwhelm the sector like the great tidal waves of Cornwall crushing the dreams and efforts of a young Mikie!! More importantly our results are here in 2-3 weeks and I very much feel they are going to elevate Jubes from non league football onto the bigger stage! An almighty rise has already begun and will be further evidenced by the impending figures.
Yes, thanks GK. The article mentions that the industry is going to need to find at least another 500,000 tonnes Cu per year over and above the average annual increase of 500,000. 25,000 tonnes per annum from Jubilee by 2024 represents about 5% of this additional need. Not small fry by any means.
Thanks gkb47
China may be the biggest market but it is certainly not the only market and the fact remains that demand will out strip supply as no new Copper mines have been build or started.
Whilst I am disappointed at the SP action of late, I have been in the market long enough to know that once the numbers are out, it will be difficult if not impossible to ignore the Jubilee prospects.
Not long now - GLA
@gkb47, @nimrod22,
So this is an extract from the article from SMM news - auction of Copper in China for Chinese companies...
"SHANGHAI, Jun 22 (SMM) - China’s National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced to release the first batch of national metal reserves, with the total amount of copper at 20,000 mt.
Domestic copper consumption is 1.15 million mt per month, and the released 20,000 mt of reserves account for about 2%. Only the companies related to copper processing and manufacturing are qualified to be the bidders, and each bidding section is 100 mt of copper. The copper reserves come from the warehouses in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Henan, Shandong, Tianjin, Ningxia, and other regions, which is in accordance with the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilising prices of commodities. The later release amount and frequency will worth attention."
My comment - is...
A) Firstly don't believe all you read coming out of China (i worked in ASIA - Hong Kong / China, news can be propaganda and self fulfilling...) A real measure of truth would be for those in the know to monitor western market price purchases of copper by Chinese companies in the next 6 months - there shouldn't be any if China is releasing surpluses at lower prices...
2% of (total?) reserves = 20,000 mt / year - and with consumption at 1.15 mt / month they are good for Copper and todays consumption / rates for the next c100 years - see what i mean BS being mis-reported...
B) Bidding will drive their own prices up - so much for price stability, LOL
C) This Copper is for their own consumption - the "West" needs to concentrate on finding additional separate reserves (mined or recovered tailings) - Australia, Africa, etc for the future. Biden has said as much as he doesn't want to expand "dirty mines" in the the US.
D) Given the big world wide push for EV's, turbines, and all things green and electric, etc, etc... markets need to wake up and realise short term localised Chinese auctions are not a solution to world wide supply & demand, it's only the Chinese thinking they are controlling pricing for the short term.
Markets will react as the realisation further kicks in that we ALL don't have enough copper... the hand brake will come off and normal "superstorm" service will be resumed - believe me there is no other version on the horizon.
IMO ATB Shorn
@nimrod22
Thanks will do.
ATB Shorn
should read the posts on the Glencore board. Gents have posted links to yesterday's comments from Glencore management and amount of metals released by China from reserves.
There are many factors weighing on commodity prices at the moment in addition to the Chinese trying to surpress. A shortage of chips is estimated to to create a drag on 2M cars being built. The Americans squabbling over the size of their stimulus package! The Americans trying to slow down inflationary pressures, etc etc. However all these issues are temporary and will end, like the Chinese will exhaust their reserves. When all this culminates, there will be no stopping commodities! I can feel a champagne super nova coming!!
I always assumed 'strategic resources' were retained to keep the show on the road when supply may be at risk.
You could call that damping down prices, but is it?
@dorfan01
Do you read anywhere what the Chinese auction tonnage of Copper represents in terms of current supply restrictions & future demand ?
As you say it's temporary and kicking the can down the road - but it would be nice to get some relative figures...
ATB Shorn
Alpha Macro (June 17,2021 at 7.37)
China to auction COPPER,ALUMINIUM and ZINC from strategic reserves to dampen commodity prices.
This is at best a temporary measure as they will need to buy to rebuild their reserves.
In my opinion great news as we know about the drop that has taken place and have now something to look forward to seeing what happens to prices when they need to rebuild their stocks.