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The latest annual confirmation statement came out and always think it’s worth a look to see what’s changing.
1) Seems to confirm the #JAN shareholding is around the 7-8% mark as per the last RNS. The September RNS for the interim results saying it was 3.6% seems now in my mind a bad copy/paste job of the wording from the previous year’s interims.
2) doesn’t look to me like Fodere raised significant new cash in 2022. The main big jump in the share count was for the shares issued to the ex Tronox guy for coming on board, I suspect this was not for cash but not certain of that. There are 3 new shareholders added and looks like they were transfers from one of the founders rather than new issues, so that suggests Fodere was sufficiently cashed up at the time. Googling these, one of the new ones looks like he’s linked to the investment company for the Barclay family (i.e Ritz hotel, Daily Telegraph).
As much as the companies house filings still suggest the Fodere admin is not brilliant, does seem they’ve pulled together quite a big share register. Suspect there’s some serious high net worth’s in here.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09362025/filing-history
Since this post, another correction posted to the confirmation statement from a year ago. Paid lip service to filings before now so can’t believe doing it out of the goodness of their heart, hopefully it’s a sign of a data cleanse prior to an IPO! Pilot plant in Zambia was meant to be operational this quarter, so hopefully news soon. So my investment thesis is now…
Pilot plant is huge success. Fodere IPO (maybe in US to leverage ex-Tronox board member connections) to fund main plant at Highveld. Tech proven to work too on Pitombeiras ore. Massive offtake deal announced. Dual listing for #JAN on TSX because Luis is famous there now (Bravo). Brian gets off the beach and gives us an interview!
Have to be positive or investing in this space can drive you nuts!
And another correction just now. Which is helpful because I’m pretty sure this is saying Jeffry Quinn did put cash in at £412 per share which has to be a massive vote of confidence in the tech being likely to work. The announcement last summer said…
“Finally, Fodere also announced that in addition to the formation of the joint venture, Titanium North America has made an equity investment in Fodere and Mr. Quinn will join the board of directors”
Thought the share issue wording left open possibility was some sort of signing on bonus but looks like it was cash now, to me at least.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220720005068/en/Fodere-Titanium-Limited-Announces-Construction-of-Pilot-Plant-and-Formation-of-North-American-Joint-Venture-Fodere-America
Thanks Mesb. I’ve been expected Fodere IPO for sometime and suspect the reason it hasn’t already occurred is challenging market. Would certainly be nice if they could say pilot plant is operating to those in any IPO.
Am guessing it would also need to have the environmental approval for the Highveld plant expansion to 15 tons/hour. Comment period finished in September so the report has hopefully already gone in some time ago to the relevant authority. For the original 3 tons proposal, there was roughly a 3-4 month approval timeframe. So that could be soon with any luck.
It’s be good to get proper update from fodere, or even company presentation/IPO prospectus. At the moment it’s just little bit here and there through occasional LinkedIn post. They don’t even put the LinkedIn posts/announcements on their website!
Interesting that the latest addition at Companies House says Fodere issued shares last summer at £645, decent jump from the previous issues.
So if that’s used to value our stake, it’s worth £1.1m. Add £800K from BRES, probably still north of £1m cash by my back of packet calc, that means I get to about £5m for Pitombeiras within a £8m market cap. Even without any titanium benefits, that leaves a decent risk/reward certainly compared to others I look at, factoring how disgestible the capex bill is likely to be. So the question I keep asking myself is whether the radio silence means Pitombeiras is really alive or not. It’s almost binary now at 3p.
Good to see they’re bumping up the price for new investors. Expect higher still for any IPO..
My own estimates is circa $1.8m-$2m cash, with expectation we sold the last of our Valore shares as not mentioned in latest update..
Also add it’s not binary on pitombieras. We’re supposed to be getting a new project, as working on for a while I’d hope more than just an unworked tenement… Can’t assess until we know details, but pitombieras was a new project 3 years ago and got us from 2p - 10p SP in 12mths…
Much better to be using cash on own projects. Fodere and Bres might be great investments, but more value should be added on own projects.
Dcat, yes my binary comment was probably not the right way to express my feeling. There have been hints of other aspects but they’ve not yet shown their hand.
Trying to express it in a different way then, I was trying to say if there was confidence in the viability of the project, but it was just subject to the usual uncertainty around permitting, financing etc., then we wouldn’t be at 3p. Obviously it works the other way around too. 3p is just the wrong price. Something relatively small could swing this either way, e.g. another clip of Luis at the mine site to say guys were still on the case would shift sentiment straight away, or something like that. I don’t really care about the share price today, but I do care to know the project is moving forward.
And yes, my cash number was probably too low. I was really just going for a conservative round number although by the time you turn my £ number to $, it’s maybe not a big diff. If there’s been less physical activity, and it’s been mainly phone calls and meetings, then perhaps the cash burn has been lower than recently too.
Mesb, no worries mate. With Brian we’re used to poor communication almost designed to reduce any excitement or positive expectations!
SP reflects that in last 12-24mths company hasn’t done anything to draw Jangada to attention of potential new shareholders, newsflow has been light and communication poor. Net result is value accrued to pitombieras by market is now just circa £5m.
In regard to advised progress and newsflow there really is only room for improvement. SP should respond positively then as is often the case with companies that been a sleep starting to wake up.
Surprised there’s still a 3 before the share price so after reflecting on it just bitten the bullet and added some.
Have been annoyed for a while about the BRES investment, not because it’s a bad company but because it cast doubt in my mind about whether the investment in Fodere was truly strategic. This RNS has dispelled that doubt, and the info on the rights in South America is great new info in my mind.
I take the references back to the 100% IRR project etc. with a pinch of salt because those financials now seem largely redundant if that project is not proceeding as previously envisaged. But I’m struggling to see how the next set of financials, when they eventually do come out, will not be attractive. Frustrating that really for the last 2 years we seem to have basically trod water, but what comes now could be miles better than what we might otherwise have had.
As an aside, I keep thinking about Tronox Brasil (not wholly owned by Tronox) who per their latest accounts still have not identified a new local resource given supplies from their end of life mine are about to run out.
Hey Mesb, of the regular posters here I thought you’d be happiest to finally see something on
Fodere.
Expected use of their tech has been cornerstone of my reason for investing to position I have and as a long term hold, frustrating it’s taken this long for company to discuss it, however I suspect there was caution before any testing was done and that testing required the pilot plant based in kitwe.
Was happy to see we’ve the rights for S America, something we speculated on after the ex-Tronox guy invested in fodere last year and not the rights for N America. Would hardly have been fair for Jangada not to have S America rights as part of investing when we were earlier holder!
Not sure at what stage the fodere tech might be applied, suspect that will form part of the bulk sampling. Does the existing flow sheet stay with material only then put through fodere plant? Can we bin off the wet separation part of the process which added capex, opex and lowered recovery from the initial PEA & apply fodere plant after just a dry process? Will fodere be used on both the non-magnetic (tio2), just the magnetic (vanadium/iron) or the 2 separate post separation piles?
I’ve no doubt that fodere tech will significantly increase/improve the economics.
At the moment we only get 25% credit for the vanadium & the 2 stage process lowered recovery of that.
The Ilmenite concentrate at 42% grade has a sale price of $220 per tonne. 99% purity tio2 has a sale price of nearer $3k.
Lot of value still available which fodere tech should unlock, hopefully things will soon start falling more into place and the excitement we have will spread!
Thanks Dcat, I was delighted by that update. In terms of extra annual profit, do you see it in the 20-30 million dollars ballpark?
BF - too many variables to be sure, but if large enough fodere plant can be built for both concentrates and it’s high purity vanadium and tio2 produced then my estimate could be extra $30m pa post tax. Really need more info. Definitely exciting though
I’m guessing having some 91% iron oxide will be easier to raise offtake money for too, if that’s the main pricing environment that funding is hooked onto?
Lots of questions, but at sub £10m market cap (still) I’ve scanned this morning down all the smaller companies listed on LSE and I don’t spot one I’d rather be invested in despite the unknowns.
91% is the recovery, not the purity.
Does raise an interesting point i’d not considered though. if fodere process splits the minerals, does it take out the other contaminants in the iron oxide concentrate & thus increase the iron content? Pure fe203 would be circa 70% fe content, that’d get a huge premium to std 62% fe pricing. I honestly have no idea on that regard, could be a nice bonus & definitely more attractive to offtakers.
My enthusiasm running ahead of me! I did once understand the difference between 62%/65% etc. some months ago but the thing’s gone on so long now I’ve forgotten all that research!
Basically we do not know right.
Unlike tng who are explicit fodere are not.
Do we really know additional cost of process?. I did not see much on website.
Anyway. If they say it is game changing it should enhance profitability alot
Cheers Dcat, that probably helps to explain part of the waiting game we are enduring -- a prize of 50 million dollars profit per annum or thereabouts. A p/e ratio of five would see shares valued at...50p?!
I think under that scenario a p/e of 5 would equate to a shareprice of around 78p